Thursday, March 12, 2020

1996 Testimony before House Foreign Operations Subcommittee of Appropriations.








April 25, 1996



Testimony by

Chuck Woolery, Director

Communication for Health Campaign



Before

 Congressman Sonny Callahan

Chairman of the

Foreign Operations Subcommittee of Appropriations

U.S. House of Representatives



Regarding Funding for International Health and Development Programs for Preventing the Spread of Infectious Diseases.





Thank you for allowing me as the Director of the Communication for Health Campaign to testify today regarding the prioritization of US foreign aid appropriations.



The World is in great change.   Within the context of this change, the appropriations made by this Subcommittee now constitute the basis for maintaining the security of the American people.   In the past, this Constitutional mandate was carried out by military strength.   Today, military strength alone can no longer protect Americans from the foreign threats now approaching and breaching our shores.  



The disturbing trend of new and re-emerging infectious diseases puts public and global health squarely in the realm of national security interests.   Numerous reports document the threat infectious diseases pose to American lives and prosperity, and identify them as a threat that will only grow in the coming years.  The rate and magnitude of that growth has been determined by our past neglect of poverty, environment and public health concerns.   Our continuing failure to address a host of critical international problems within this specific context promises us almost certain catastrophe.  



For some, the catastrophe is already here in the form of HIV/AIDS or multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis.   These two diseases already consume a large portion of our nation’s health expenses. 



AIDS was first recognized as a US problem in the early 1980s.  If we had been more interested in international health threats earlier, we could have started research to combat the AIDS virus as early as 1962 when it was first recognized by African physicians as the “slims” disease. 



After three decades of decline, TB in the US re-emerged as a major public health problem in the late 1980s.  Targeted federal funding brought it back under control but still, in 1995, TB outbreaks were investigated in churches, schools, dental offices, court rooms, trains, subways, neighborhood bars, racetracks and even on a river boat casino.   Until we control TB globally, we will continue to pay the expensive price for outbreaks here.  One outbreak in New York City in 1993-1994 cost the city over $90 million.  The world devotes less than half of that annually for the global control of TB.   



Infectious diseases spreading in US hospitals kill more Americans each year than all the American troops lost throughout the entire Vietnam conflict.   A significant number of these ‘domestic’ infectious diseases were imported from the harsh conditions of poverty abroad.  As these conditions worsen, the number and variations of microbes will continue to grow and move with the aid of modern transportation.   The actions of this Subcommittee, in regard to development and humanitarian assistance will have the greatest impact on the future security of the American people and control of these impending threats.  



The cost of stopping microbial threats at the gates of our cities or at our water's edge is no longer a practical option.  A handful of microbes can be stopped at the border but the vast majority cannot.  It would be prohibitively expensive to stop, test and quarantine every human or foreign product that crosses our borders or air space every day.   Reducing infectious diseases, terrorism, pollution, or even unemployment in America now requires our pro-active efforts to extend beyond US boarders.  Prevention there is far cheaper than dealing with these problems at our borders or in our cities.    That is the new profound opportunity of this Subcommittee  -  to impact the conditions of global poverty and chaos, that are the primary fuel feeding the health, economic, environmental and security threats now facing this nation.



The Communication for Health Campaign and NCIH represent over 120 member organizations including the American Medical Association, the American Public Health Association, American Dental Association, the American College of Preventive Medicine, the American Nurses Association, the American Association of Critical Care Nurses, 9 Schools of Public Health and dozens of other international medical and health related organizations.  These organizations and thousands of individual health care professionals urge this Subcommittee to re-examine its fundamental priorities in this new ‘national security’ context.  



This Subcommittee took two steps forward last year by establishing the "Child Survival and Disease Account”.  Unfortunately, it took a large step backward when it failed to appropriate sufficient funds to achieve its own recommendations.   The ‘Child Survival and Disease’ earmark of $484 million falls $127 million short of the levels it recommended for Child Survival ($254 million), UNICEF ($100 million), Polio ($25 million), AIDS ($129 million), and Basic Education ($108 million).  If we consider the absence of other expenditures needed to cure or prevent tuberculosis, provide clean water and sanitation, slow the spread of malaria and other tropical diseases, and support other vital health related programs, the total appropriated will be stretched even further.   USAID could divert other aid resources to meet these specific health needs but cannot do so without taking away from other vital programs; that in the long run, bring health, security and stability in the Third World, and ultimately to our shores.   Family planning and microenterprise programs are also important contributors to the health of individuals and communities.   Support for democracy and human rights also have an impact in reducing the chance of conflict that so often halts and even destroys health services.



The 52 words of the Preamble to our own Constitution now provide the perfect and most urgent rationale to solve this dilemma.



"We the people of the United States in order to form a more perfect Union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquillity, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."



Nearly every American would agree that the primary role of any legitimate government is to provide for the defense of its citizens.  Reductions in development assistance over the last few years however, have reduced our health defenses, and dramatically increased our risks.



Article 1. Section 8. of the Constitution says that  “The Congress shall have Power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises, to pay the debts and provide for the common defense and general welfare of the United States..."



It does not suggest that the common defense and general welfare of the American people should be sacrificed to balance the budget.   That is indeed the scenario now being played out.



It is not hard to imagine a health crisis in this country where even Article 1. Section 9 of the Constitution “...The privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus” would need to be “suspended”, when “the public safety may require it.”  



Article IV.  Section 4 of our Constitution states that “The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republic Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against Invasion; ...”  The Constitution does not specify invasion from what.  I believe it is not a stretch of the imagination to claim that the framers of our Constitution had the protection of American citizens in mind when they agreed to this wording.    This Article has now been violated by the entry of AIDS, malaria, dengue fever, ebola, tuberculosis, cholera and perhaps a dozen other pathogens; and unfortunately, this is only the beginning.  Legal and illegal immigration certainly plays a role in the transportation of disease, but the greatest source of cross-border transport of pathogens is the result of legal domestic travelers dressed in business suits, army uniforms, and tourist or holiday attire.   More than 50 million people cross the US border each year.  Nearly half of the food we purchase and place on our kitchen table each evening has been imported from nations where the cheapest labor is hired for harvesting and processing the crops.  



Stopping the flow of people and goods would be prohibitively expensive if not impossible.  Yet at any given time approximately one-half of the world’s population is ill.   The heaviest concentration of pathogens is found in the developing world where fewer than half the world’s people try to make a living on less than $400 a year.  It is in these parts of the globe that we must implement comprehensive, preventive measures if we want to provide the greatest safety for American citizens.



Article VI says “...This Constitution and the laws of the United States...shall be the supreme law of the land.”   We are hopeful that the next law this body passes will reflect its solemn duty to provide for the defense and welfare of the American people. 



Over the last 50 years, the US Government has devoted trillions of dollars to a cold war to protect us from the possible threat of a communist aggressor.  While that threat remains a remote possibility today, we are guaranteed an onslaught of infectious diseases in the near and not too distant future.   This is not my opinion.  It is the findings of a National Academy of Sciences Institute of Medicine report published 3 years ago.   Since then the world has suffered an outbreak of bubonic plague in India, Ebola virus in Africa and new variations of tuberculosis within the US that are resistant to every antibiotic we now have in our health arsenal.   Perhaps this Subcommittee could provide the bold leadership needed to commit the US to a “hot war” to ensure our freedom from fever.   How easily we forget that the largest killer and disabler of men, women, children and even the unborn in the world is simple malnutrition and infection.   Our reliance on the progress of science to protect us has betrayed us.  The progress of pathogens to adapt to our arsenal of medicines promises to be the fight of our species.  It is truly an “us against them” war that needs to be waged.   We can destroy the majority of them at their base camp by ridding the world of the poverty related conditions in which they multiply, thrive, and strengthen. 



For the cost of a pair of B-2 bombers (bombers the Pentagon says it doesn’t want or need) we could launch such an offensive.   This minor investment could eradicate many diseases and greatly reduce our risk to a host of others.   No number of additional B-2 bombers can do that. 



In the closing paragraphs of The Coming Plague, aptly entitled “Searching for Solutions”, Laurie Garrett writes:

“The human world was a very optimistic place on September 12, 1978, when the nations’ representatives signed the Declaration of Alma Ata.   By the year 2000 all of humanity was supposed to be immunized against most infectious diseases, basic health care was to be available to every man, woman, and child regardless of their economic class, race, religion, or place of birth. 

        But as the world approaches the millennium, it seems, from the microbes’ point of view, as if the entire planet, occupied by nearly 6 billion mostly impoverished Homo sapiens, is like the city of Rome in 5 B.C.    “The world really is just one village.  Our tolerance of disease in any place in the world is at our own peril,” Lederberg [Nobel laureate for discovery of DNA] said.  “Are we better off today than we were a century ago?  In most respects, we’re worse off.   We have been neglectful of the microbes, and that is a recurring theme that is coming back to haunt us.”  

        In the end, it seems that American Journalist I.F. Stone was right when he said, “Either we will learn to live together or we will die together.”

        While the human race battles itself... the advantage moves to the microbes’ court.  They are our predators and they will be victorious if we, Homo sapiens, do not learn to live in a rational global village that affords the microbes few opportunities.  It’s either that or we brace ourselves for the coming plague.”



This new reality requires a radical shift in the way Americans relate to each other and to the rest of the world.   More weapons will not bring us more security.  In fact just the opposite may now be true.  



More Might!  More Fright!  More Plight!

In the modern world of disorder and dissolving nation states, the more US Military superiority we have, the less US national security we actually gain.  Maintaining or increasing US military strength has at least 4 negative consequences on the health of US citizens.   First, military spending usually distracts scarce financial resources from meeting basic human needs.   Every billion dollars spent today beefing up our military against a possible human aggressor means a billion dollars less for the programs essential to protecting Americans from the aggression of infectious diseases.   It is true that a small portion of military spending is spent in combating infectious diseases and more spent here could certainly be helpful.  However, more B-2 bombers or a new space based anti-missile defense system is just plain wasteful, in the face of this new threat.



Second, military units stationed abroad always return home bringing whatever health problems they have with them.  There may be as many as a quarter million troops stationed overseas at any given time.  Their interactions with foreign populations, combined with their rapid and regular travel habits contribute to globalizing health problems.  Sexually Transmitted Diseases, AIDS, anti-biotic resistance and a host of other communicable diseases are now in the pipeline.



Another increasingly important effect of ‘military might’ affecting public health falls in the category of terrorism.   As our military gains an undisputed level of superiority, we squelch the possibility of any overt enemy attack on our shores.   This squelching of overt aggression however, only increases our risks to covert aggression by any hostile individual, group or nation.   The bad news:   The ultimate weapon of affordability, ease of delivery, and effective human destruction is microbial in nature.   In the Conference report on the Anti-Terrorism bill passed last week, a Senator suggested that if this bill passed, it would help protect the American people.  This is a dangerous myth.  We are all entirely vulnerable to the misuse of lethal or crippling pathogens in nearly every aspect of our lives.  Any moderately intelligent person can find at least a dozen ways to infect hundreds if not thousands of people.  A 98 cent plastic misting bottle from any drug store, a dose of salmonella from any blend of raw eggs and a 20 second pass around any popular salad bar is just one example.  The Tokyo subway nerve gas attack last year killing 12 and injuring over 5,000 wasn't particularly creative (nerve gas in a paper bag).  The fact that members from this same sect went to Zaire posing as relief workers responding to the 1995 outbreak of ebola is, however, truly terrorizing.  Imagine the consequences in America if the unibomber, the Oklahoma City bomber or the Trade tower bombers had any training in basic microbiology.



Senator Hatch reminds us that the “possession of dangerous human pathogens, such as bubonic plague, anthrax...are...readily available to just about anyone...”   The December 30, 1995, Washington Post has a story with a headline that leaps off the page: `Man Gets Hands on Bubonic Plague Germ, but That's No Crime.' The story is more chilling than the headline. In Ohio, a white supremacist purchased three vials of the bubonic plague pathogen through the mail.  This was the same pathogen that wiped out about one-third of Europe in the Middle Ages. When the purchaser called the seller to complain about slow delivery, the sales representative got concerned about whether the caller was someone who really should have the bubonic plague in his possession. According to the story, the Ohio authorities were contacted. When police, public health officials, the FBI, and emergency workers in space suits scoured the purchaser's house, they found nearly a dozen M-1 rifles, smoke grenades, blasting caps, and white separatist literature, but no bubonic plague.  The deadly microorganisms were found in the glove compartment of his automobile, still packed as shipped...”



Investments in research on pathogens and the development of targeted treatments is a viable responsibility of government involvement.  We cannot wait for the market place to catch up with the mortality rate of Americans.



With the current level of global poverty, rapid means of global transportation and general lack of resources directed at improving the human condition, terrorists really don't have to do much of anything.  Our own lack of basic human services here for the US homeless and below-poverty populations means the spread of disease by normal factors is already a disaster waiting to happen.



The fourth military factor is related to 'peace keeping' and 'nation building'.  These traditionally non-military roles carry a certain element of risk by increasing American troop exposure to foreign populations.  Keeping peace and increasing a nation’s capacity to meet the immediate needs of its people is however, the best way to prevent or eliminate the chaotic conditions that give favor to pathogens in the first place.  International involvement carries a risk but it is a far greater risk to allow war and chaos to disrupt the health and well-being of any population.   US military capacity is still needed to protect us from an array of the traditional military threats but they can no longer alone protect American lives.  Even the Military recognizes this fact.



CISET Report:

Perhaps the most alarming, comprehensive and credible warning related to this issue, came last summer from the Committee on International Science, Engineering, and Technology (CISET) Working Group.  A report, co-authored by the Department of Defense, the National Security Council and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and a dozen other federal agencies, documented the emergence since 1973 of at least 30 new pathogen types and the re-emergence of dozens of previously controlled infectious diseases.   The report places infectious disease issues in the realm of national security.



“...any city in the world is only a plane ride away from any other.  Infectious microbes can easily travel across borders with their human or animal hosts.  In fact, diseases that arise in other parts of the world are repeatedly introduced into the United States, where they may threaten our national health and security.  Thus, controlling disease outbreaks in other countries is important not only for humanitarian reasons.  It also prevents those diseases from entering the United States, at great savings of US lives and dollars.”



(CISET report is available: http://www2.whitehouse.gov/WH/EOP/OSTP/html/cisetsum.html

For a copy of the report call CDC, 404-639-2603 or fax your request to 404-639-3039.)

[Updated 10-10-14   http://clinton1.nara.gov/White_House/EOP/OSTP/CISET/html/toc-plain.html.. Updated again 3-12-20: https://1997-2001.state.gov/global/oes/health/task_force/index.html.  ]



Other Sources:

A Washington Post article last June also pointed out that among all the infectious threats, the problem of increasing drug resistance may be the most serious, and America is no safe haven. 



Antibiotic resistance is on the rise...A few pay in illness and death.  The bill is going up every year... Once emerged, resistant bacteria spread quickly, sometimes via a single infected person traveling between countries.  Similarly rapid diffusion occurs in the microbial world [when] resistance...can pass from bacterium to bacterium, evolving in one enterprise, such as agriculture, and soon showing up in an unrelated one, such as medicine.  In the United States, resistance is everywhere - in childhood ear

infections, in venereal diseases, in TB, in surgical wounds and among the 60,000 deaths each year from hospital acquired infections.   In the developing world, antibiotics are the most common pharmaceuticals, and they often can be bought without a prescription.  Many people take them when they're not needed or don't take them long enough to cure an infectious completely.  Such practices, combined with high rates of infectious disease, make developing countries especially fertile breeding grounds for drug resistance.



In one high-profile example, the outbreak of dysentery that killed up to 15,000 Rwanda refugees last summer might have been less deadly if the strain of Shigella dysenteriae hadn't been resistant to five common antibiotics...



Epidemics, however, are not what experts fear from drug resistance.  Instead, they fear the slow erosion of history's most useful medicines...They fear that treating simple illnesses will become onerous and expensive, and that the number of mild illnesses taking complicated turns will rise.



"The old people in the nursing homes are going to die, and the young kids with ear infections are going to progress to mastoiditis, sinusitis, meningitis," said Calvin M. Kunin, a professor at Ohio State University School of Medicine and past president of the Infectious Disease Society of America. "I think there ought to be a new organization called MAMA, Mothers Against the Misuse of Antibiotics.  Because it's the mothers' children who are going to die."



...About 150 million courses of oral antibiotics are prescribed each year in the US.  Childhood ear infections are the single leading reason...Some experts estimate that as many as half the prescriptions written for antibiotics in the US are not needed or warranted on diagnostic grounds...



Whatever their source, drug-resistant germs are now such an unavoidable part of the environment that children get them as birthright.  In a study published five years ago, researchers analyzed the intestinal bacteria of infants and toddlers in three separated locales.  They found that 42% of sample from children in Qin Pu, China, were resistant to three or more antibiotics.  Multiple-drug resistance was found in 30% of children sampled in Caracas, Venezuela, and in 6% of children in Boston.   None of the children had recent exposure to antibiotics.



...For reasons that are quite mysterious, some microbes develop resistance to many antibiotics simultaneously...



One of the more important disease-causing bacteria in human beings is called Streptococcus pneumoniae.  Its resistance to penicillin is a huge problem in Europe and a growing one in the US.  Penicillin-resistant S. pneumoniae, however, was originally found in Papua New Guinea.  In the late 1960s, the Australian army gave New Guinean villagers monthly penicillin shots in order to prevent yaws, an infection resembling syphilis that is spread by casual, not sexual, contact.  Over time, the campaign created a large human population in which penicillin-resistant S. pneumoniae could flourish. ...



... The best documented example involves the spread of penicillin-resistant S. pneumoniae in Iceland.  The bug surfaced in Iceland in December 1988, at a hospital in Reykjavik.  DNA fingerprinting revealed that it was similar to a strain found in Spain, a popular winter vacation spot.  Within 3 years, 20% of the S. pneumoniae in Iceland was resistant...apparently all descended from the single Spanish import...



As a threat to public health, S. pneumoniae is currently the greatest object of concern.  The bacterium is the leading cause of illness and death from infection in the US.  It is responsible for roughly 7 million cases of ear infection, 500,000 cases of pneumonia; 50,000 cases of bloodstream infection; and 3,000 cases of meningitis each year...Inevitably, though, a greater number of cases will become "complicated"...



Each year in this country, about 2 million cases of infection are contracted by people while they are in the hospital.  The problem is far more common than in the past, as critically ill patients are kept alive, many connected to tubes and ventilators that give microbes easy portals of entry.



A common cause of these infections is a family of bacteria known as the enterococci, which infect surgical wounds, the urinary tract, the heart and bloodstream. ...these germs have developed resistance to a half-dozen antibiotics.  However, they remain susceptible to vancomycin, an expensive and occasionally toxic intravenous antibiotic...



The biggest cause of hospital acquired infections - the family of Staphylococcus bacteria -- is currently resistant to everything but vancomycin in 40% of cases in large teaching hospitals.  Experts fear the day that drug becomes useless in staph infections -- though few doubt it will arrive.  



Nearly every multidrug-resistant TB organism evolved in patients who stopped taking their medications early or took them sporadically.  Changing both patients and doctors habits would slow the emergence of resistant strains and might even turn back the clock in some cases...

                "The Abuse of Antibiotic: Bacterial resistance evolves".  Washington Post, June 26, 1995



Last year, about 25,000 people between the ages of 3 and 49 died of unexplained causes in the US -- but with symptoms that suggested microbial infections...

                “Budget Cuts Slow Agencies Fighting New Bacteria Strains” Washington Post, June 27, 1995



Cost effectiveness of Development dollars:

Development is far cheaper than defense.   Even the strategic planners in the military now figure that preventing and resolving conflict is far cheaper, in both lives and dollars, than waging war.   Healthy populations also tend to be better consumers of American goods and services.   Thus the importance of public health and prevention of disease.  Global disease eradication efforts also have a significant domestic return on international investments.   For each of these reasons, increases for development assistance can be justified on economic grounds alone.   But the security rational is far more important.  Cuts to development assistance have troubling side effects.    One of our members, upon return from the refugee camps in Bosnia noticed a decrease in cooperation among private voluntary organizations.  She made me aware of the fact that cuts to development assistance decrease the overall effectiveness of our relief efforts.   Shrinking moral is one small factor.  Another consequence is the increased competition between PVOs and NGO’s for scarce donor dollars. Competition may be increasing the effectiveness of individual PVOs, but it is detrimental to the larger scale cooperative efforts needed to effectively deal with development and relief problems.   Making sufficient government money available, and strengthening the mechanism for delivering US aid abroad could reduce this competitive problem.



USAID plays an important role here and continues to work closely in collaboration with WHO, PAHO, PHS/CDC, NIH and others in a number of areas, and is producing cost-effective health improvements.   CDC, WHO and USAID bring collaborative partners to the table, thus sharing the benefits of worldwide and local expertise and reducing the cost borne by any one partner. 



It is vital to keep overall funding for development activities at a level that will allow AID to continue to support internationally-coordinated efforts.   Since 1993, such funds, though a relatively small amount of the AID budget, have been in decline.  Cooperative funding activities, including work on HIV/AIDS through WHO, the Global Program on AIDS, and the new independent UNAIDS program, is estimated to decline by one-third between FY94 and FY96, from a level of $40 million to about $27 million, of which HIV/AIDS funding still accounts for at least two-thirds of the total. 



The latest in infectious diseases:

Last month the British beef industry was crippled (almost eliminated) because of a pathogen 'scare'.   The economic cost alone could be as high as $2 billion dollars.   Last week, Ebola related primate deaths in Alice, Texas resulted in the need to kill hundreds of other primates.  Aside from this loss of life, this incident cost both business and government, a few hundred thousand dollars.   The media will probably spend more than that covering this particular isolated and relatively insignificant health threat, yet the real story is not being told.   These are not 'isolated' incidents.  They are an increasing trend in the global spread of infectious diseases that requires our utmost attention and response.    It is a trend that holds the capacity to bring life as we know it to a grinding halt. 



The bright side:  If we respond to the trend appropriately and adequately it could propel all of humanity into a long, healthy and prosperous future.



Benjamin Franklin long ago reminded all of us that preservation of our form of government depended on our constant vigilance.  The trend of new and re-emerging diseases is a threat to our people, and our way of life.  These global warning signs require more than constant vigilance. 



The choice is yours and the time is now.   We urge this Subcommittee to recognize this growing threat for what it is; a threat worthy of top priority concern.   Any less would be a form of negligence in protecting the national security of this nation and the lives of the American people. 



For this Subcommittee to protect the American people, there are at least four basic areas requiring adequate and immediate action. 



1.  The need for surveillance is quite clear.  A global network of adequately supplied, staffed and trained health posts capable of monitoring and reporting health conditions of even remote populations.



2.  The capacity to response quickly and adequately to any and every outbreak of infectious disease.



3.  Research and development to ensure our capacity to respond to any outbreak be it accidental or intentional.



4.  Elimination and prevention of the conditions that breed and foster infectious diseases.  Poverty is perhaps the greatest culprit.  Unlike other attempts to address poverty from a humanitarian perspective, any new effort must be comprehensive and eternally supported.



Because this subcommittee determines appropriations that will impact each of these areas, you have the greatest capacity to defend this nation’s security.   You can advance our most basic values and provide for our most basic security by focusing your fullest attention on last area mentioned.    Ensuring that every man, woman and child on earth has at least the basic necessities (nutrition, clean water, sanitation, education and basic health services) for a healthy existence will not ensure total safety from infectious diseases.   It would, however, greatly reduce this growing threat.



Last year:

Despite the most restrictive budget limitations, last year this Subcommittee found the resources to increase funding for at least 3 foreign aid programs, in the context of 'national security'.



This House Subcommittee on Appropriations passed its FY'96 bill with increases for:

     

        Foreign Military Financing Program (FMF)        increased by $13 million.

        Int'l Military Education & Training (IMET)         increased by $13.5 million.

        Economic Support Fund (ESF)                               increased by $42 million

        OPIC                                                                             increased by $35 million

      

                 TOTAL non development aid increases:                       $103.5 million



Last years cuts to development assistance programs averaged over 25%.  A 25% reduction to FY'95 levels of the favored programs listed above could yield $1.408 billion -- more than enough to meet the development goals that most of this nation's citizens are aligned on; nutrition, primary health care, water and sanitation, family planning, basic education, microenterprise lending...



Last year the Senate Foreign Operations Subcommittee attempted to shift Department of Defense dollars into the foreign aid budget to increase funding for IMET.  The time for this funding source to be considered in the context of infectious national security threats has arrived.



The economic benefits alone that will result from improving the quality of life for people internationally cannot be overemphasized.  The cost savings to this government and the American people from the global eradication of smallpox has been well documented.  Our cost savings from the global eradication of polio and measles will be even more bountiful.  Combine this with the increase in US jobs as result of increased US exports to a healthier, more prosperous international markets and we could balance our federal budget well within a safe time line.



These decisions are always difficult, and we have a history of ignoring warning signs prior to crisis.   An example was the reduction of defense appropriations prior to the sneak attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941.  But I can tell you that the cost of that negligence will be insignificant compared to the cost if these microbial trends are also ignored.



In conclusion, the effectiveness of pathogens can be attributed to one simple trait.  They are basically non-discriminatory.  Most pathogens are blind to their victim’s nationality, income level, political party, skin color, age or sex.  Until we Americans, as humans reach the same level of indiscrimination regarding who benefits from our foreign assistance, we may soon find ourselves on the bottom of the food chain.  As Nobel Laureate, Dr. Joshua Lederberg says, to pathogens we're all just "another piece of meat".    This Subcommittee is our best defense.



For more information contact Chuck Woolery, 301-738-7121,[now 240-997-2209]  email:  chuck@igc.org




WARNINGS ignored.

For decades prestigious and uncontested reports offered warnings and solutions.  They were ignored.

“In the final analysis, unless Americans -- as citizens of an increasingly interdependent world -- place far higher priority on overcoming world hunger, its effects will no longer remain remote or unfamiliar.  Nor can we wait until we reach the brink of the precipice; the major actions required do not lend themselves to crisis planning, patchwork management, or emergency financing... The hour is late.  Age-old forces of poverty, disease, inequity, and hunger continue to challenge the world.  Our humanity demands  that we act upon these challenges now...”
Presidential Commission on World Hunger, 1980.

Over the last two decades there has been at least SEVEN prestigious and uncontested official reports warning Congress and the American people about the national security threats from newly emerging and reemerging infectious diseases (and the growing risk of accidental or intentional release of infectious agents).   While the causes and solutions are widely agreed upon there is also a professional consensus that there has been insufficient government action to these immediate and inevitable threats.

INFECTIOUS DISEASES as a threat to U.S. National Security:

1. Emerging Infections; Microbial threats to health in the United States 1992,Lederberg, Joshua, Oaks, Stanley C., & Shope, Robert E., eds, National Academy of Press, Washington DC. [On-line] http://www.nap.edu/books/0309047412/html/index.html

2. Addressing Emerging Infectious Disease Threats: A Prevention Strategy for the United States 1994, Center for Disease Control (CDC). [On-line] http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00031393.htm

3. Infectious Disease – A Global Health Threat 1995, Committee on International Science, Engineering, and Technology Working Group (CISET), [On-line] http://clinton1.nara.gov/White_House/EOP/OSTP/CISET/html/toc-plain.html Sept 1995

4. America’s Vital Interest in Global Health 1997, Board on International Health, National Academy of Press, Washington DC, [On-line] http://books.nap.edu/catalog/5717.html

5. The Global Infectious Disease Threat and its Implications for the United States. Jan. 2000, NIE 99-17D, [On-line] http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_globalinfectious.html

6. Biosecurity: A comprehensive Action Plan. June 2006. Center for American Progress.
http://www.americanprogress.org/site/pp.asp?c=biJRJ8OVF&b=1807025

7. Commission on a Global Health Risk Framework for the Future (GHRF Commission) Report title: “The Neglected Dimension of Global Security: A Framework to Counter Infectious Disease Crises”  http://nam.edu/initiatives/global-health-risk-framework/?utm_source=National+Academy+of+Medicine&utm_campaign=9c986f06c9-GHRF+report+release&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b8ba6f1aa1-9c986f06c9-129670121  January 2016.

Credible Book:  WARNINGS: FINDING CASSANDRAS TO STOP CATASTROPHES  By Richard A. Clarke and R.P. Eddy,  2017: https://cco.ndu.edu/PRISM-7-2/Article/1401978/warnings-finding-cassandras-to-stop-catastrophes/   The first 8 chapters detail the millions of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars lost to catastrophes,– natural and man-made – due to our failure to act on the advance warnings of experts.   The last eight chapters estimates the billions of lives and trillions of dollars that could be saved if humanity collectively works to prevent the other dire warnings now given regarding other threats (some existential).  Chapter 11 “The Journalist: Pandemic Disease”.    Chapter 9 outlines the three cognitive reasons why humans ignore such warnings. 

SUMMARY:  Human engineered or nature diseases can and will have debilitating economic, social and political consequences on every nation.  These growing health threats are inevitable.  The only debate is about their magnitude of impact and origin (given conspiracy ideas) .  Those who suggest the threat is minimal … don’t know history or fully understand the trends in our current global situation.
 
ACTIONS: We have three basic choices. 
1. We can wait until the infectious reaches our lungs, home or community before taking action.  The attacks on 9-11 provides us with a mild example of consequences of the expensive approach of ignoring warnings to a persistent global threat.  (Mindset:  It hasn’t happened so far…don’t worry about it.)
2. We can try to stop the threat at our boarders. Our success in stemming the flow of illegal immigrants, illegal drugs or weapons across our borders gives one an idea of how effective this approach will be. (Mindset: Our Federal government and our national sovereignty will protect us.)
3. We can go to the source of the threat and create systems that facilitate both prevention and adequate early detection and response efforts. (Mindset:  We are one human family. We hang together or we hang separately. See 17 Sustainable Development Goals).

In the closing paragraphs of The Coming Plague (1995), aptly entitled “Searching for Solutions”, Laurie Garrett writes:  
The human world was a very optimistic place on September 12, 1978, when the nations’ representatives signed the Declaration of Alma Ata.   By the year 2000 all of humanity was supposed to be immunized against most infectious diseases, basic health care was to be available to every man, woman, and child regardless of their economic class, race, religion, or place of birth. 
 But as the world approaches the millennium, it seems, from the microbes’ point of view, as if the entire planet, occupied by nearly 6 billion mostly impoverished Homo sapiens, is like the city of Rome in 5 B.C.    “The world really is just one village.  Our tolerance of disease in any place in the world is at our own peril,” Lederberg [Nobel laureate for discovery of DNA] said.  “Are we better off today than we were a century ago?  In most respects, we’re worse off.   We have been neglectful of the microbes, and that is a recurring theme that is coming back to haunt us.”  
 In the end, it seems that American Journalist I.F. Stone was right when he said, “Either we will learn to live together or we will die together.”
 While the human race battles itself... the advantage moves to the microbes’ court.  They are our predators and they will be victorious if we, Homo sapiens, do not learn to live in a rational global village that affords the microbes few opportunities.  It’s either that or we brace ourselves for the coming plague.”


"It only matters how you respond" President Trump

"It only matters how you respond"  President Trump,  President Trump press conference also announcing 30 day travel restrictions to Europe. 

https://www.c-span.org/video/?470284-1/president-trump-travel-europe-us-suspended-30-days-uk


Prevention? That's un-American!!!


There are basically two phases of every pandemic:  First phase:  We don’t believe you.  Second phase: Why didn’t you warn us?    It appears our nation’s collective concept of history is watching sport instant replays. 

Jesus said, ‘pestilence will always be with you’.   Actually, he said “the poor will always be with you”.   And that was in the context of ‘if you keep ignoring my preaching’.  

But it doesn’t take a genius President or religious zealot to grasp the fact that being poor is directly linked to preventable malnutrition and infectious diseases.  Covid 19 should be teaching us that sufficient access to nutritious food and basic health services isn’t just a human right because it’s a nice thing to do.  It should be teaching us we are fools if we don’t.   It is vital globally to protecting our own freedom, security, and prosperity.  We were warned before. 

In 1980 Jimmy Carter’s Presidential Commission on World Hunger concluded “In the final analysis, unless Americans -- as citizens of an increasingly interdependent world -- place far higher priority on overcoming world hunger, its effects will no longer remain remote or unfamiliar.  Nor can we wait until we reach the brink of the precipice; the major actions required do not lend themselves to crisis planning, patchwork management, or emergency financing... The hour is late.  Age-old forces of poverty, disease, inequity, and hunger continue to challenge the world.  Our humanity demands that we act upon these challenges now...”.   Today the consequences the Commission warned about “international terrorism”, “war”, “environmental problems”, “diseases” and “other human rights problems” (refugees, genocide, human trafficking…) are self-evident and worsening because we fail to heed the wisdom of prevention.  The Commission also stated that “The most potentially explosive force in the world today is the frustrated desire of poor people to attain a decent standard of living. The anger, despair and often hatred that result represent real and persistent threats to international order…  Neither the cost to national security of allowing malnutrition to spread nor the gain to be derived by a genuine effort to resolve the problem can be predicted or measured in any precise, mathematical way. Nor can monetary value be placed on avoiding the chaos that will ensue unless the United States and the rest of the world begin to develop a common institutional framework for meeting such other critical global threats [like] environmental hazards, pollution of the seas, and international terrorism. Calculable or not, however, this combination of problems now threatens the national security of all countries just as surely as advancing armies or nuclear arsenals.”   The commission suggested “that promoting economic development in general, and overcoming hunger in particular, are tasks far more critical to the U.S. national security than most policymakers acknowledge or even believe. Since the advent of nuclear weapons most Americans have been conditioned to equate national security with the strength of strategic military forces. The Commission considers this prevailing belief to be a simplistic illusion. Armed might represents merely the physical aspect of national security. Military force is ultimately useless in the absence of the global security that only coordinated international progress toward social justice can bring.”



There have been multiple prestigious reports since then (some by US defense and intelligence agencies) stating that ‘new and re-emerging infectious diseases” are a significant and uncontested threat to US national security.  All ignored.  The military has the best ‘self-evident’ 4 step approach to dealing with every threat.  And protecting our soldiers health, especially from infectious disease, is it’s highest priority.  

  1. Early warning.  2. Rapid response.  3. Research and development (of effective responses).  4. Prevention.



(FYI:  the first US federal feeding program was related to malnutrition in the US during WWII.  In 1945 School Lunch Politics quotes Gen. Hershey at a hearing as puting the portion of draftees rejected for "disabilities directly or indirectly connected with nutrition” at "about one-third" [i.e., 1/3 of rejected draftees were rejected for nutrition-related health issues].  It also cited a 1945 NY Times article in which Gen. Hershey states, "low nutrition was a large factor in the rejection by Selective Service of 4,500,000 draftees."



Our military is great at breaking things.  And prevention of solder illness is a must.  Unfortunately, in our private, public, and political culture, the concept of prevention appears to be an un-American value.  And given the reactionary nature of our political system we have a national debt that is also an inevitable national security threat.  Combined with Covid 19, it’s not likely, but it is possible, this pandemic could spark a global economic contagion.  One that could be worse than the 2008 near economic collapse.  Even escaping that, tight budgets will hinder efforts to make adequate investments in urgent and vital reactionary efforts.  Forget about investments in prevention of future pandemics.  Can you recall any talk by policy makers or media pundits about this fundamental priority?



Twenty years ago, the World Health Organization calculated that universal access to clean water and sanitation alone would eliminate half of all the world’s infectious diseases. That cost then would have been in the billions.  The cost of the pandemic over the next year could be in the trillions. Not to mention the billions of people hurt economically and even more susceptible to catching or spreading ‘new and re-emerging infectious diseases’ of any kind.



IMPORTANT!  Everything in the known universe consists of systems and structures.  And both natural and human engineered systems and structures are all interdependent!  Repeat.  ALL interdependent!   Natural systems are usually resilient.  Human engineered systems usually aren’t.  Making matters worse, most human designed systems are increasingly dependent on energy, technology, and competent users.  These systems (communication, transportation, sanitation, health care, banking, manufacturing, agriculture, defense…)  usually perform extremely well under normal conditions.  Pandemic conditions are not normal.   People missing work, restricted travel, or prematurely dying or abandoning key positions may stress some systems to the breaking point.  Like our so called “health care” system which is actually a medical response system.  

On an average day, most of our nation’s health centers and hospitals operate at or near capacity.  With Covid 19 infections rising as the flu season peaks, we can expect chaos. Overworked or infected health care workers will be a significant complication. It doesn’t take a virology expert to predict things will get much worse before they get better.  



FYI:  Three weeks ago Italy, a well-developed nation, had three cases of Covid 19.  Yesterday the entire nation closed its borders.  



Another factor rarely mentioned in news reports is the innate nature of viruses to mutate.  One study of infected individuals from 30 different nations has already identified over 60 strains of Covid 19. And while viruses (like bacteria) don’t have sex, they can, and often do, exchange genetic material, incorporating new gene segments that can make them less a threat, or a greater threat.  E. Coli, a bacterium we all need in our digestive system to survive, at some point crossed genes with a harmful and sometimes deadly Shigella bacteria.  Now we have E. coli O157.  O157 being the harmful gene segment a normal E. coli got from a Shigella bacteria.  It’s believed that the Spanish Flu that killed more American soldiers during World War I than the war was a combination of a bird virus and a pig virus. 



Yet another national security threat rarely mentioned in relation to Covid 19 is that it is largely a respiratory disease creating conditions for bacterial lung infection to take hold and even kill a patient.  This will require a significant increase in the use of antibiotics over the next year or more which will add to the already accelerating loss of humanitie's Antibiotic arsenal. Leading to a future where more people will die from simple infections than from any other non-pandemic threat. 



Some insensitive and short-sighted commentary you might read in the liberal media will be from environmental zealots.  I know their kind. I used to be one of them (still am to some degree) and half a century ago I hoped some plague would come along and thin the human herd by a billion or more.  But then I learned that most human suffering was not the result of overpopulation.  My heart and mind changed.  Over the last few years I’ve warned some in the Climate change movement that their singular focus will not save us.  For twenty years I’ve been harping on the need for a comprehensive approach to our interdependent global problems.  At the 2014 Climate March in NYC Naomi Klein called for a “Movement of Movements”.  She said the problems wasn’t just about the environment.  It was about the gross economic inequality, injustice and lack of human rights that spawns so much violence and war. 

It's great that the Climate movement has gained so much traction!  And it’s problematic that they didn’t listen to Naomi.  I kept telling those who would listen that some event could come along and take everyone’s attention off the environment.  A war, terrorist event, economic collapse, or pandemic.  But still, the only partially valid point they make is that a warming planet will exacerbate infectious diseases.  Yes it will!  But not nearly as much as poverty, war, hunger, or attempted genocides using biological or conventional weapons. 



Which brings the topic back to prevention.  Especially if one considers the evolution of weaponry.  Without some improving trends on global justice (today I learned that it has been on the decline over the last 3 years in more nation’s (and to a greater degree) than justice has improved… ) favorable human conditions will continue to decline on all fronts, in every country.  And with it, populism will continue to grow, and democracy will continue to feed us flawed leaders…. And then more chaos.  A positive feedback loop with profoundly negative consequences.



And the only comprehensive program the world agrees upon is the UN approved 17 Sustainable Development Goals that virtually no Americans have heard about and no media has reported on.  Why?  Because prevention is not a patriotic concept.  Reacting to threats is.   And if you believe our military and walls will protect us against these threats, you need to think again.   Those are reactionary efforts that will break us economically…and divide us politically.  The two goals Osama Bin Laden dreamed about.   We didn’t’ need help with either.   We need help of an entirely different kind. 



Something to bring us together.  Not physically.  Covid 19 will prevent that.  We need something to bring us together mentally and spiritually.   That’s what the Golden Rule is for.  And our need to develop a Covid 19 vaccine and fund the 17 SDGs. 



Connect the dots (and the systems).  See the web of life.  Work for ‘liberty and justice for all’.  Or prepare for an increasingly chaotic and broken union. 



Thursday, March 5, 2020

The HOLE in Trump's 'whole of government' COVID 19 solution.




President Trump’s “whole of government” and “whole of America” approach to combatting the COVID 19 threat has an earth sized hole in it.

Viruses don’t respect borders or the human construct of national sovereignty.  Walls and military force are useless in defense against them.  

New and re-emerging infectious diseases (and human made bioweapons or accidents in making them or preparing defenses against them) have always been the greatest and most immediate threat to our freedom, security and prosperity.  Our government’s habitual reactionary response to this increasingly persistent and inevitably threat possess an additional threat to our nation’s security in the form of unsustainable debt.   Both our government dysfunction and the absence of the protection of human rights globally is our greatest threat.

Prevention appears to be an un-American word.  It would require action beyond our borders first and foremost.   Without acting on this fundamental principle, the costs will be high.   Failure to make timely and adequate investments in the prevention of any obviously lethal problem is either delusional or suicidal.   Without such global investments in the prevention of infectious diseases (natural or human made) we are ensuring a catastrophic future for every nationality, race, religion, and income group.  But those who will suffer most are the poor.   And this sets the stage for future pandemics and other national security threats.   

In the mid-1990s the World Health Organization said that providing universal access to clean water and sanitation alone could prevent half of all the world’s infectious diseases.  Add basic education, affordable access to nutrition, and basic health services and most other infectious diseases could be prevented -- or caught and controlled more rapidly.  Unfortunately, policy makers will likely ignore this fundamental reality yet again.  And when (not if) the next killer pandemic comes (from nature or lab) we will again be unprepared.  The economic cost will be in the trillions and death toll in the hundreds of millions if not billions.  And with any serious threat comes a draconian loss in human freedoms.  Primarily privacy and freedom to travel.  Just going to school or church could be restricted as it was during the 1918 pandemic.   Few remember that more Americans soldiers died from that virus than the war and well as over 600,000 of the healthiest US citizens basically drowned in their own body fluids overnight.  Their healthy immune systems overreacted which flooded their lungs with mucus.   Secondary bacterial infections killed many.  With today’s accelerating loss of our antibiotic arsenal and the rise of superbugs we can expect this again.

What’s needed and we’ve known for decades is putting human rights above the rights of nations.  The Declaration of Independence assertion regarding the self-evident truths inherent in the Laws of Nature and Nature’s God has never been codified.   For millennia we’ve known the value of the Golden Rule and justice.   And now in the form of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals as the best vaccination against future pandemics, wars, genocides, environmental degradation, and growing chaos.

Chances are we will not learn this lesson that the COVID 19 should make self-evident.  It’s not the problem.  We are. 

Our human minds evolved to solve problems.  Our minds today perpetuate them by insisting on flawed ideas like ‘peace through strength’, ‘national sovereignty protects us’, and ‘market forces solve problems’.

Science and engineering offer the best technologies for creating solutions.  But humanely guided government, religion and economics is needed to prioritize, guide and fund them.

Thursday, February 20, 2020

Mind vs Nuclear Family as systemic cause of problems.


Dear Editor, (to Washington Post 2-16-20 never printed)


The nuclear family is not the primary systemic cause that’s “Hurting America” that Robert Samuelson seems to endorse (Is the nuclear family hurting America? Washington Post, 2-17-20) after reading NY Times columnist David Brooks “powerful essay for the Atlantic ‘The Nuclear Family Was a Mistake’”.  

The primary culprit is the human mind’s creativity in creating flawed concepts.  Constructs or concepts that ignore “the Laws of Nature and Nature’s God” as prefaced in the first paragraph of our Declaration of Independence.  Oddly, about a decade after signing that profound document the same authors created and approved of a Constitution codifying blacks as 3/5th of a human being and based on a profoundly flawed concept of ‘independence’ that we accept without question.  Note that ‘independence’ exists nowhere in nature.  It is only a word that exists on paper, in language, and in our heads. How did this happen?

As human history progressed the human mind gradually abandoned of its original evolutionary function of solving problems (finding food, a mate, allies, and building adequate shelter and weapons).  And, as our mind’s existential problem-solving capacity got so good it created more and more leisure (free) time for making beads and lacking science, thinking up dumb ideas.  Increasingly the mind got bored and found another job.  Defending those dumb ideas.  Some ideas appeared to work for a while.  But eventually reality caught up with them.   Bleeding the evil out of people once seemed reasonable until science unearthed the flaw.   Bleeding continued but eventually people wised up.  

One really dumb idea that persists today is national sovereignty.  Mind you, this concept is now over 400 years old.  It is increasingly a profoundly dumb idea at time in history when exponential advances in our technological killing capacity cannot be stopped, nor our capacity for fouling our own nest. 

Our mind’s resistance to reexamining long held assumptions is increasingly an existential problem.  And the concept of the nuclear family is not one of them.   Our current system of government is.  Governments cannot depend on independent agencies and policies in a real world of irreversible global interdependence.

While COVID 19 occupies our minds and kills a few of us, it’s wise to remember that Smallpox killed more people in just 70 years of the last century, than all the wars, revolutions, murders, and genocides combined.  It would still be killing us today if there were not a global eradication campaign launched in 1970.  A campaign that every nation, county, city, village, and family participated in.  Today it only exists in top security level research facilities.  As well as bioweapons research labs.   But the natural and human induced evolution of pathogens remains our greatest threat.  And unless our minds return to their original evolutionary purpose of defending human life, the ills that we will all inevitably succumb to (pandemics, global warming, terrorism, species extinctions, war, or debt caused global economic collapse)  will end civilization as we know it. 

Making adequate financial investments in the global prevention of each of these ills is now the greatest problem that our minds must focus on.  As wise as it would be in the long run to put the global protection of human rights above the protection of national sovereignty (the freedom of states to do as they please) it is unlikely to happen any time soon.  And we are running out of time.  Human freedom and security for all will only be maximized when we recognize that we are all interdependent on the basics of life.  And the longer that independent nations resist or fail in ensuring these fundamental rights, the faster the evils listed above will spread.  Walls, political borders, assassinations, unenforceable treaties, diplomacy, or military might will be increasingly useless in containing or deterring them.

‘Independence’ is our mind’s most flawed concept.  It ignores the fact that while there are significant differences in our thinking, languages, and appearance-- all humans have the same basic needs.   Clean air, clean water, enough food, relatively safe weather conditions, strong immune systems, and safety from mass murder and mass ignorance.

I don’t expect the governments of the world to codify the protection of human rights over their own political power to continue business as usual.  But I do expect ‘we the people’ to demand that our governments invest sufficient funds to achieve the 17 Sustainable Development Goals before the year 2030.   Without doing this we might escape most of the evils listed above but we won’t avoid a global economic collapse and continued loss of freedoms (mostly privacy).  The financial burden of our continued reactionary independent policies will break every nation economically.  And with that, global chaos will accelerate.  And our privacy and freedom diminish and accelerate at a faster pace than we see today.

The so-called nuclear family is not the problem.  The problem is that we didn’t learn from the nuclear age, that we are all in this together.  And together we stand, divided (independent) we will fall. 



"Everything we shut our eyes to,
everything we run away from,
everything we deny, denigrate or despise,
serves to defeat us in the end.
What seems nasty, painful, evil, can become
a source of beauty, joy, and strength,
if faced with an open mind."
-- Henry Miller
(1891-1980) American writer


Saturday, February 1, 2020

90+ Unsustainable Trends in the US and the World

   90+ Unsustainable Trends in the US and the World.  (Draft 2-1-20)

(And, the need to invest in the Sustainable Development Goals)

If you find a website that better represents a trend or counters it, please email 'chuck@igc.org' 

Debt, Finance, and Jobs
US Govt Debt:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/americas-debt-spree-isnt-stopping-it-might-soon-be-too-late/2020/01/26/49241ce8-3ee0-11ea-b90d-5652806c3b3a_story.html
US Govt expanding exposure to risky mortgages:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/federal-government-has-dramatically-expanded-exposure-to-risky-mortgages/2019/10/02/d862ab40-ce79-11e9-87fa-8501a456c003_story.html
US personal Debt:   https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2019/11/22/the-finance-202-personal-loans-are-surging-that-s-an-economic-red-flag/5dd7063c88e0fa652bbbd90e/
US student debt: https://www.nitrocollege.com/research/average-student-loan-debt
Growing interest on US debt:  https://www.thebalance.com/interest-on-the-national-debt-4119024
Rising US income inequality at “steady pace” (according to government CBO 2019 analysis): https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-12/55941-CBO-Household-Income.pdf
Rising global income inequality:  http://www.ipsnews.net/2020/01/rising-inequality-affecting-two-thirds-globe-not-inevitable-new-un-report/
Increasing US military spending:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2019/04/18/us-military-spending-set-increase-fifth-consecutive-year-nearing-levels-during-height-iraq-war/
Growing global elderly population:  https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/worlds-older-population-grows-dramatically
Growing US elderly population:  https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2018/10/snapshot-fast-growing-us-older-population.html
Increasing US Militia groups: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Militia_organizations_in_the_United_States
Increasing medical costs related to treating consequences of sustained lack of physical inactivity in US population.
China and India are projected to overtake the U.S. in terms of economic output by 2050.
Decline in Union memberships.

Infrastructure & Policy (National and Foreign)
Failure to invest in vital aging infrastructure.
Increasing number of laws destined to fail.
US government dysfunction in dealing with national or global problems.
Legally sustained flow of taxable wealth into tax evading offshore accounts.
Unchecked corporate influencing of government and public policy
Decline in international cooperation.
Increasing number of refugees
Increasing number of failing states.
Increasing populism.
Decline in human freedoms.
Decline in number of democracies.
Decline in local newspapers.
Decline in US birth rates combined with increasing resistance to increasing foreign immigration numbers.
Increasing interference of foreign entities in US elections.

Mainstream Media & Dialogue
Decline in public trust of media.
Growth in misinformation technology:  fake news and deep fake technology.
Decline in public trust in government.
Decline of US and UN institutional legitimacy
Increasingly unfriendly political dialog/civil discourse.
Declining political cooperation between political parties.

Medical
Biological threats:
Evolution of new and re-emerging infectious disease.
Increase in antibiotic resistance pathogens.
Psychological:
Rising youth suicide rates
Between 1999 and 2014:  a 45 % increase in women’s suicide rate (16% rise among men)
Rising death rate among white middle-aged women
Rise in mental illness.
Increasing loneliness: greatest public health problem according to US Surgeon General
Persistent government resistance to increasing investments in preventive measures.
Decline in US life expectancy over last 3 years (last decline was recorded in 1917 from Spanish flu)


Education
Declining numbers of US students with math, science and engineering majors.
Decline in new international enrollments 3.3 percent in 2016/17
Total number of international students slightly decreased between 2017 and 2018.
Since 2000, the U.S. has been progressively losing market share of students to other countries (Australia, Germany, Canada and China)

Environmental: Unsustainable global trends that effect US citizens.
Increasing global temperatures
Increasing extreme weather patterns
Increasing extinction of species.
Rising sea levels.
Declining fisheries.
Increasing plastics in the ocean, air and soil.
Accelerating loss of arable land.
Increasing shortage of clean fresh water.
Increasing loss of forests.
Increasing loss of natural habitats
Increasing wasteful consumption beyond earth’s natural systems to sustain
Increasing loss of small farmers and farmers.
Increasing loss of topsoil and use of pesticides, herbicides.
Dwindling fresh water supplies
Increasing economic loss from natural disasters.

Violence & Unrest (National, International)
A 2,500% increase in deadly attacks at houses of worship in US since 1999.*
Increasing tensions and violence in the Middle East.
China’s growing investments in global infrastructure and military spending.
Evolution of war and terrorism.
Increased partnerships between terrorist groups and criminal groups (drug cartels).
Increased support to secessionist groups.
Increased encouragement of religious extremists and political fringe groups.
Increasing actions and intent to exacerbate social tensions and violence.
Increase in violent hate groups and their advocacy for a race war.
Increasing length of conflicts

Dual use technology (bio, cyber, nuclear, chemical, robotics, conventional …)
Exponential growth of its Power, affordability, availability, and both autonomous and anonymous nature:  
Reduction in weapon’s size and difficulty of use:
Increased dependence on cyber technology (when everything is connected, security is everything)
Evolution of weapons for space.: https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=evolution+of+weapons+for+use+in+space&qpvt=evolution+of+weapons+for+use+in+space&view=detail&mid=1DCE8E8372D3CBFFC3331DCE8E8372D3CBFFC333&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Devolution%2Bof%2Bweapons%2Bfor%2Buse%2Bin%2Bspace%26qpvt%3Devolution%2Bof%2Bweapons%2Bfor%2Buse%2Bin%2Bspace%26FORM%3DVDRE
Increasing space junk:  https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/space/reference/space-junk/
Evolution of weapons technologies leading inevitably into AI and questions of our capacity to control it
Increasing use of drones:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-drones-idUSKBN16S2NM
Increasing use and evolution of IEDs: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-evolution-of-improvised-explosive-devices-ieds/
Increasing WMD proliferation:  https://www.csis.org/topics/defense-and-security/weapons-mass-destruction-proliferation
Failing arms control measures:
Increasing potential for the use of autonomous weapons systems.
Increase in anonymous weapons systems leading to a reduction in deterrence reliability.
Increasing tactical advantage of using weapon systems offensively.
Increasing use of asymmetrical weapons:  https://www.nti.org/gsn/article/lethal-asymmetrical-technology-will-be-more-widespread-2030-report/
Decreasing costs of mass murder technologies.
Increasing availability of mass murder technologies.
Increased capacity for engineering genetically targeted bioweapons.
Rise in Cyber threats:  Identity theft. Crippling Cyber-attacks. Denial of service…


CONCLUSION:  What are the predictable consequences of any unsustainable trend?
If we fail to end the trends, they may will end us. Or at least our level of civilization.
The linkages between all of the trends is yet more evidence of our interdependent world…and lives, and the urgent need for holistic sustainable solutions based on fundamental principles and not just good intentions, optimism, or denial.