Predicting the next conflicts?

In introducing the 'Peace' chapter in my book (available free by email - chuck@igc.org) there appears to be only two reliable means of predicting what conflicts will happen next in our world on fire and growing chaos.  The CIA and ChatGPT.  

In 1994 a CIA study was commissioned by President Clinton after the Black Hawk Down incident in Somalia.   It’s best known as the "State Failure Task Force" or "Political Instability Task Force”.  The goal was to provide early warning to policymakers so they could take action to prevent or mitigate state failure.   The task force analyzed dozens of various factors such as economic decline, civil unrest, and ethnic tensions to identify specific risks in different nations.

It identified several warning signs, and its findings were published in reports and were used to inform U.S. foreign policy decisions.  The task force's methods were not perfect, but it represented an effort to use data and analysis to anticipate and address instability around the world.  It was not authorized to apply these to the US.  The several key factors that were associated with state failure were obvious general factors like economic decline and economic instability.  Countries facing economic hardships, such as high inflation, unemployment, and debt, were more likely to experience instability and collapse.  The task force also found that political instability in countries with weak or ineffective governments, high levels of corruption, and frequent changes in leadership were also at greater risk of state failure because it often contributed to social unrest and conflict.  In addition, countries with “social fragmentation” like deep-seated ethnic, religious, or cultural divisions were also more likely to experience state failure by leading to civil unrest, violence, and challenges in governance.  The task force also considered a range of other economic, political, and social indicators in its analysis, but these three factors were consistently found to be among the most significant predictors of state failure.

 

The long paragraph above is a summary of a ChatGPT response I received after asking for details on that CIA study.  I offered a correction with the information I’d remembered after 3 decades.  Here’s ChatGTP’s response.

 

“Thank you for the correction! Yes, the State Failure Task Force did find that infant mortality rates, access to free trade, and stages of democracy were among the top factors associated with state failure. These factors reflect the importance of health, economic, and political conditions in assessing a nation's stability.”

Then I asked it if “each of these reflect violations of basic human rights that could have  been understood in the context of the Universal Declaration of Human rights” and ChatGPT’s response was, “Absolutely, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) sets out fundamental human rights to be universally protected. Violations of these rights, as seen in factors like infant mortality rates, access to free trade, and stages of democracy, can be understood through the lens of the UDHR. For instance, access to healthcare, a factor in infant mortality rates, is closely tied to the right to a standard of living adequate for health (Article 25). Access to free trade can relate to economic rights (Article 23) and stages of democracy to political rights (Articles 21, 29). Understanding these issues in the context of the UDHR can help in addressing and preventing violations of human rights.” 

 

Next I asked “if you were to create a comprehensive list of specific elements that would lead to nation state failures, war and famine, what would be included?’  ChatGPT answered “Creating a comprehensive list of factors leading to nation or state failures, as well as war and famine, requires consideration of various dimensions. Here's a list of key elements:

1.      Political Instability and Corruption: Weak governance, political repression, and widespread corruption can undermine state legitimacy and effectiveness.

2.      Economic Factors: This includes economic mismanagement, unequal distribution of wealth, high levels of poverty, and economic dependence on a narrow range of exports.

3.      Social Factors: Ethnic or religious tensions, social inequality, lack of social cohesion, and discrimination can destabilize a nation.

4.      Environmental Issues: Environmental degradation, natural disasters, and climate change can lead to food and water scarcity, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities.

5.      External Influences: Foreign intervention, exploitation, and interference in domestic affairs can disrupt stability.

6.      Security Challenges: Internal conflicts, terrorism, and armed insurgency can threaten state stability.

7.      Resource Scarcity: This includes issues like water scarcity, which can lead to conflicts over resources.

8.      Health Crises: Pandemics, high disease burdens, and lack of access to healthcare can strain a nation's stability.

9.      Infrastructure and Development: Poor infrastructure, lack of development, and inadequate access to education and basic services can hinder progress.

10.   Historical Factors: Legacy of colonialism, past conflicts, and unresolved grievances can contribute to instability.

11.   International Relations: Tensions with neighboring countries, regional power dynamics, and global geopolitical shifts can impact stability.

12.   Demographic Pressures: Rapid population growth, youth bulges, and high dependency ratios can strain resources and services.

13.   Legal and Judicial System: Weak rule of law, lack of accountability, and ineffective judicial systems can erode trust in institutions.

14.   Media and Information Influence: Misinformation, propaganda, and lack of media freedom can contribute to social and political unrest

Addressing these factors requires comprehensive strategies that promote good governance, sustainable development, social cohesion, and respect for human rights.

 

Last I asked ChatGPT:  “Would achieving the United Nations 17 Sustainable Development Goals be the best means of Achieving a comprehensive strategy?”  It replied:  “Achieving the United Nations' 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) could indeed be a crucial step in pursuing a comprehensive strategy to address the factors that lead to nation or state failures, as well as war and famine. The SDGs are interconnected and aim to address a wide range of social, economic, and environmental challenges. By working towards these goals, nations can:

1.      Promote Peaceful and Inclusive Societies: SDG 16 specifically focuses on promoting peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, providing a framework for addressing issues related to governance, rule of law, and human rights.

2.      End Poverty and Hunger: SDGs 1 and 2 aim to end poverty and hunger, addressing key drivers of instability and conflict.

3.      Ensure Health and Well-being: SDG 3 focuses on ensuring healthy lives and promoting well-being for all ages, which can help address health crises and improve overall resilience.

4.      Achieve Gender Equality: SDG 5 aims to achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls, addressing social inequalities that can contribute to instability.

5.      Ensure Sustainable Economic Growth: SDGs 8, 9, and 10 focus on promoting sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth, fostering innovation, and reducing inequalities within and among countries.

6.      Protect the Environment: SDGs 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15 focus on sustainable cities and communities, responsible consumption and production, climate action, life below water, and life on land, respectively, addressing environmental challenges that can lead to resource scarcity and conflicts.

7.      Strengthen Partnerships: SDG 17 emphasizes the importance of partnerships for the goals, recognizing the need for collaboration among governments, businesses, and civil society to achieve sustainable development.

While achieving the SDGs is not a panacea for all global challenges, it provides a comprehensive framework for addressing the root causes of nation or state failures, as well as war and famine. It requires coordinated efforts at the national and international levels to implement policies and initiatives that promote sustainable development and address the interconnected nature of these challenges.

 

It appears ChatGTP is wiser than the any global intelligence agencies, US political parties, peace movements, or the majority of US media outlets concerned about the future of democracy, the global protection of human rights, addressing the root causes of conflict, ensuring global health, sustaining capitalism, or human 

DEFENSE ONE opinion piece recognizes things are getting worse.

Defense One:  IDEAS.  

"Authoritarians are playing to win. America can’t if we don’t show up."  Two retired four-stars lay out the case for the National Security Emergency Package currently being considered in the House.  PHILIP BREEDLOVE and SAMUEL J. LOCKLEAR III | MARCH 16, 2024

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2024/03/authoritarians-are-playing-win-america-cant-if-we-dont-show/395008/          The comments within the brackets are my own and highlighted yellow. 

[The following ideas are only half baked.  Security in the real interdependent world is an illusion.  And defense without ‘justice for all’  is simply unsustainable]

A global chess game is underway and America’s security depends on it [winning it in a sustainable way]. Congressional negotiators are counting votes to break gridlock and fund America’s national security. As they do, thousands of miles away, an opposite set of deliberations are afoot, from Moscow to Tehran to Beijing, not to build a secure America—but to work against the interests of our citizens. [Certainly not future generations. Given that both sides are in a perpetual struggle to protect their national sovereignty instead protecting human rights and the environment.  And neither side is considering the inevitable consequences of the escalating evolution of weapons, war, pathogens, environmental degradation, corruption, economic debt instability, political polarization, and dysfunctional political system – each causing disruptive problems that cannot be controlled by military power, diplomacy, hopes, or prayers...thing are not going to end well for anyone.  Cascading global failures are inevitable playing this zero-sum game between nations, corporations, and organizations.  It is simply unsustainable on this planet where everything is connected, interdependent, and vulnerable. And only a global effort like the eradication of smallpox can save us and the generations to come from hell on earth.   

 As military officers who [bravely] spent our lives in uniform and oversaw U.S. military operations at NATO and in the Pacific, we believe today’s world is more complicated, more threatening, and most of all more interconnected than any we’ve witnessed [because their minds believed that peace through strength between ‘independent’ nations in an irreversibly interdependent world could keep them free and safe.  But that is not the way reality works.  And wars lost by both the US and the USSR should have confirmed that.]

 In real time, Iran is seizing the opportunity to empower Houthi extremists in the Red Sea and Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon. As North Korean-built missiles fall on Ukrainian targets, Putin welcomes this rising regional instability, distracting the world from the battlefield between Kiev and Crimea. All the while, Beijing watches closely to determine whether the invasion of Ukraine is either a cautionary tale or a greenlight when it comes to Taiwan.

 As the Senate passed the National Security Emergency Package last month, Senator Thom Tillis, R-N.C., aptly described this moment, “If we walk away, you will see the alliance that is supporting Ukraine crumble. You will ultimately see China become emboldened. And I am not going to be on that page of history.” As America’s national security hangs in the balance, the package now being considered in the House is essential to counter those who would do us harm. And with Putin making Ukraine’s economy another theater of war, the critical U.S. civilian economic and humanitarian assistance—alongside security assistance—will be just as vital to ensure Ukraine can continue to defend its territory and prevent Russian forces from pushing further into Europe.

 Meanwhile, other crises metastasize. Ukraine is known as the “breadbasket of Europe” and the invasion is one of the core reasons that 9 in 10 people face acute levels of food insecurity in hot spots already affected by fragility and conflict – countries like Sudan, Yemen, and Syria. The last time the world faced such a significant food crisis, it helped contribute to bloody conflict across the Middle East and North Africa and the rise of ISIS. Currently, 150 million people are facing “acute food insecurity” and 108 million have been forced to flee their homes worldwide.

Likewise, China is on the march, accumulating influence and economic riches across Africa and the Global South. Beijing has upped its global development investment more than fivefold over 15 years, and is already beginning to reap the dividends. From critical minerals in Africa to relationships in Latin America and southeast Asia, the race is on for the export markets that will define this century.

 In our country, meanwhile, isolationist [and some ‘peace’ activists] headwinds are animating our nation’s politics.  Some of our fellow citizens believe our nation should turn inward. But we’ve learned the hard way that our two oceans will not protect us from the threats of the 21st century. And while the notion that politics should stop at the water’s edge may no longer be quite as sacrosanct, it's why we are part of a group of more than 260 retired three- and four-star generals and admirals who continue to speak out around the country on why America has to engage in the world to stop threats before they arrive on our shores.

 Some argue that democracy is not suited to this moment. We disagree. We believe that the vibrancy of our democracy earns the United States a credibility that Putin, Kim Jong Un, and the Ayatollah can only dream of: admiration and allies, not just transactional relationships. But you can’t win if you don’t show up. [no!  we can only win this chess game if we can stop the growing assault on our national borders which are impervious to pandemics, violent extremists, acerating extreme weather events, the rapid extinction of species, and the economic and migratory consequences hunger, wars, genocides, corruption, and cruelty.}  

 The world is watching the chessboard to see whether the United States can deliver—on security, on economic competition, and on humanitarian crises—in the way that’s always defined and differentiated us from the competition. Over the last year, it’s no secret that our allies have been stepping up—as they should—with European countries now committing $3 for every $1 the U.S. has contributed to Ukraine. Yet the stakes for our own interests are too high for our nation to sit on the sidelines.

 We agree with Speaker Mike Johnson when he affirmed that “we can’t allow Vladimir Putin to march through Europe.” How can we get there? Passing the National Security Emergency Package in the House is critical, not just for the reinforcement it must bring to the Pentagon and our comrades in arms, but equally so to their partners at the State Department and USAID.

 These investments [plus funding and achieving the SDGs ASAP] are essential to meet the civilian security, economic, and humanitarian needs rapidly piling up before those too demand military solutions. Together, these agencies—defense and civilian—make up America’s team and they need our urgent support.

In national security, one may debate causality against correlation, but there are no coincidences. When Moscow hosted Hamas at the Kremlin after the barbaric October 7 terrorist attacks, and Xi Jinping hosted Putin in Beijing during China’s recent 130-country conference, and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un toured Russian missile sites, the message was clear.

The authoritarians are playing to win on the global chessboard, and they’re acting in lockstep. [where our military, all political parties, and our nation's progressive movements continue act in their own mission’s interest.  United we are not. 

Passing a budget up to the challenge is the first way to put us on a path to check our adversaries and competitors—and to protect our national interests, our citizens, and our way of life. [our natural resources infrastructure that our future security depends on is not a priority]

 Philip Breedlove, a retired U.S. Air Force general, commanded NATO Supreme Allied Command from 2013 to 2016.

Sam Locklear, a retired U.S. Navy admiral, commanded U.S. Pacific Command from 2012 to 2015.

Democracy. Freedom. Security. Pick two.

 It's been a long time since I've blogged. I've been doing the last edits on my book I started over 24 years ago.  Below are ten flaws of the US Constitution which is in the 7th chapter before I dive into the cognitive reasons collected to better understand why we don't learn to change our mind when our life and lives depend on it. Feed back is always welcomed.  Even anonymously. 

The fundamental principles found in the Declaration of Independence can lead us to a sustainable future.

It is our flawed Constitutional principles that dictate who and where we are now. 

Democracy.  Freedom.  Security.   Pick two.   

Nature holds all three as incompatible.  Because a majority of people still believe they are independent. 

FYI:  There is one way to have all three.  Just remember that Nature always gets the last vote.

The American people and the rest of the world need to make an urgent decision about democracy.  You might sense that with all the acerating chaos in the world that time is running out.  Your senses are correct.  Nearly everything humanity is doing as nations and collectively now is simply unsustainable.

With the evolution of weapons, wars, pathogens, environmental degradations, violent extremism, refugee flows, failing democracies, polarizing partisan politics, and economic gap are all connected, interdependent, and vulnerable - the solution must be global.  This is not my view. 

It was the assertion of Jen Easterly, the Director of CISA (the Cyber and Infrastructure Security Agency October 29, 2021).  CISA is the newest US Federal Agency, established by the Trump Administration in 2018.  “Everything is connected, everything is interdependent, so everything is vulnerable.... And that’s why this has to be a more than whole of government, a more than whole of nation [effort]. It really has to be a global effort....”

This reality was echoed again this week on C-Span MARCH 11, 2024. everal high-ranking US Intelligence officials testified on Global Threats before the Senate Select Intelligence Committee. Their introductory remarks are the most complete, accurate, comprehensive, and brief assessment that I've ever heard in the dozens of briefings of threat hearings I've listened to over the last two decades.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?534027-1/intelligence-officials-testify-global-threats-senate-cmte

 

Chairman Senator Warner (D) briefly summarizes the threat environment we have today and how threats are rapidly changing, increasing, speeding up, and connected -- in addition to traditional national security threats we still have.

 

Vice Chair Mark Rubio (R) introductory remarks on various threats were long. His conclusion was short  ‘one of the greatest dangers we face is the inability to see how all these things are interconnected...and one of the greatest challenges we face is to deal with them as if they are interconnected...that’s what life will be like on this planet for the next generation.  It will be determined very much by what we do or fail to do here over the next 2 to 3 years ... with all the issues ... before us today.

 

So what two are you choosing?  Democracy, Freedoms, Security?

Or Freedom, security, and the Global Rule of Law?  With the RoL merging enforceable laws made by a democratic process, applied equally to all people, and limited to protecting human rights and the environment globally.

 

Democracy is an ambiguous word meaning different systems and priorities for different local or national governments.  So as a noun democracy always turns to tyranny of the majority.  Thus, Thomas Jefferson defined democracy as ‘two wolves and a lamb deciding what to have for lunch.  And freedom being a well armed lamb contesting the vote.’   The Rule of Law is democracy as a verb, with liberty and justice for all.

The choice between these two options should not be difficult.  It is shocking how resistant people are having heaven on earth. And instead insists on an ambiguous word where a majority system dictates the laws. 

Ever wondered why our Constitution as a Democratic Republic has always had problems?   Or why no other democracy has ever been sustainable? 

 

The reality is that our US Constitution has at least ten serious flaws. And anyone of them make it unmanageable when competing in a rapidly changing and troubled world.   While there are rules for Amendments within it - at this stage of our polarized Democracy an Amendment won’t happen and a constitutional convention could lead at best to dissolution of our union. And at worse, to another civil war.  With the very real chance of another World War breaking out before that.

The greatest flaw with democracy is that ‘we the people’ of the US and the world are so different in beliefs, culture, religion, and wealth that it is would be highly likely to unite and form a consensus rule of law. As long as people hold in their mind different truths (political, religious, economic...) with the capacity to believe anything.  Literally anything!  And then kill or die to defend it .... partisan elections will always divide.  But the greatest barrier to people coming together is the belief that they are separate from other people and the environment.  And that separation will have harmful consequences in every aspect of life.  Because everything is connected, interdependent, and vulnerable.  And a global system of liberty and justice for all is the only moral, ethical, and logical path forward.  United we stand a chance.  Divided we will continue into further chaos.

 

Forging unity was accomplished with the idealism expressed in our nation’s Declaration of Independence.  It started and remained a universal document.  And those who signed it failed to keep the spirit and intent of that profound document when the created the US Constitution.  The Declaration expressed self-evident truths.  Like everyone has natural inalienable rights.  And one of those rights is to say your opinion or deeply held beliefs.  No one has the right to make others agree to the same beliefs.   And that voice is everyone’s sovereign agency to decide what rules they want to live under.  But no one is obligated to subjugate their right to a different belief.  And if people want to disagree they can. But they must agree on some rules to live by...or serious problems will likely evolve.  And without an agreed upon means of settling such problems, violence will likely result.  And people will start picking sides and war will follow.  

 That is Democracy without the Rule of Law. 

Below is ten inherent flaws in the US Constitution.  And without amending them our nation will continue to implode.  Please provide your feedback.  I may have made errors or forgotten some.   Populist movements are rising.  What solutions or self-evident truths do you have that can change this? 

Remember three things.  1) the words Abraham Lincoln wrote ‘the Declaration is our “Apple of Gold” and our Constitution it’s “Silver Frame”.  Which is more valuable to you?  2:  The earth belongs always to the living generation…not the dead. Every constitution, then, and every law, naturally expires at the end of 19. years. If it be enforced longer, it is an act of force and not of right.”   Thomas Jefferson in a 1789 letter to James Madison    3.  Everything is connected, interdependent and vulnerable. 

Constitutional Flaws:

The earth belongs always to the living generation…not the dead. Every constitution, then, and every law, naturally expires at the end of 19. years. If it be enforced longer, it is an act of force and not of right.”   Thomas Jefferson in a 1789 letter to James Madison

1.     It was framed on top of an illusion.  The human delusion that things are independent of other things.  They can certainly be separate.  But independence is a flawed mental construct that exists nowhere in the known universe.  Only as a risky concept in our mind our speech, and our documents.

 

2.     It codifies states’ rights over human rights.  The civil war mostly changed this regarding slavery.  But most voters are still restrained by the chains of a state’s right to Gerrymander Congressional Districts.  This strips many Americans of their representation to influence the outcome of a state’s electoral college law.  So until every state changes this system that rigs the power by one partisan political party to reside over the rights of others in that state, with the state’s electoral slate deciding which Presidential candidate wins the general election (as what happened in Florida in the 2000 election determining the final outcome for all US voters) and impacting everyone in the US and the world, that is simply wrong.

 

3.      It has no justice.  If you go to trial in the US, you would be better off being rich and guilty than innocent and poor.  The one time I experienced a legal problem and lost because I didn’t have a lawyer.  I complained to the judge that the judgment was not just.   He said “we have a legal system.  Not a justice system. “ 

 

The Supreme Court building in Washington, D.C., features the following inscription on its exterior: "Equal Justice Under Law." This phrase reflects the principle of justice being applied equally to all individuals, regardless of their background or status.  This is laughable if you go to court without a good lawyer or against the US government.

 

Agent Orange was a herbicide used by the U.S. military during the Vietnam War to clear vegetation. Its use has been controversial due to its harmful effects on human health and the environment.

There was a lawsuit filed by Vietnamese citizens against several chemical companies, including Dow Chemical and Monsanto for their role in producing Agent Orange. The lawsuit alleged that these companies were responsible for the health problems and environmental damage caused by Agent Orange during the Vietnam War.  In 2004, a group of Vietnamese plaintiffs filed a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. federal court against the chemical companies. However, the case was dismissed by the court, which ruled that the chemical companies were immune from lawsuits because they were acting under the direction of the U.S. government during the war.   Despite the dismissal of this lawsuit, the issue of Agent Orange and its effects on the Vietnamese population and environment remains a contentious and unresolved issue. 

There have been legal cases related to the use of Agent Orange by U.S. military personnel and its effects on their health. One significant case was the class-action lawsuit filed by Vietnam veterans against several chemical companies that produced Agent Orange. The case was settled out of court in 1984 for $180 million, which established a fund to compensate veterans and their families affected by exposure to Agent Orange.  The Supreme Court has not issued a ruling specifically addressing the use of Agent Orange in Vietnam.

“Equal justice under law is not merely a caption on the facade of the Supreme Court building. It is perhaps the most inspiring ideal of our society. It is one of the ends for which our entire legal system exists…it is fundamental justice that should be the same, in substance and availability, without regard to economic status.”  Lewis F. Powell, Associate Justice of the Supreme Court. 

The Department of Justice building, also in Washington, D.C., bears three inscriptions:  JUSTICE IS FOUND IN THE RIGHTS BESTOWED BY NATURE UPON MAN.  LIBERTY IS MAINTAINED IN SECURITY OF JUSTICE. This is engraved into the exterior marble of the US Justice Department. 

"Justice is the great interest of man on earth.   Wherever her temple stands, there is a foundation for social security, general happiness, and the improvement and progress of our race." 

"The commonwealth endures only in proportion as the guarantees of the rights of the people are faithfully maintained."  This quote underscores the importance of upholding the rights of the people as a foundation for a strong and enduring society.  But outcomes in this court are more money dependent than just.

Summary This lack of justice in US laws (domestic and international) is simply unsustainable. 

 

4.        Zero-Sum budgeting between “Independent” agencies: Some agencies require secrecy and/or complete separation from other government agencies in competition with them.  With all agencies overlapping on different issues with different rules and priorities, this competition for the same limited financial resources essential to achieving its own departmental priorities – is simply sustainable.  And ineffective in addressing irreversible interconnected and interdependent problems with everything being vulnerable. 

 

5.       Dangerously slow weapons procurement process when competing militarily against an autocratic or dictatorial government that can change budget priorities on a dime.  This story in the Washington Post Opinion,   March 6, 2024   “Let AI remake the whole U.S. government (oh, and save the country)”    By Josh Tyrangiel      https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/06/artificial-intelligence-state-of-the-union/  Detailed earlier the growing national security threat of competing with other governments weapons procurement process (both ally and enemy). Especially enemy’s that are non-democratic and not inhibited by oversight safety or environmental regulations.  This problem is more serious, larger, and applicable to our entire government management and funding system.

 

6.       Catastrophically slow and troublesome law making - or amending – a democratic system engineered intentionally into the US Constitution from its creation.   The intention was to keep a balance between the three legs of government and prevent fast reactionary laws demanded by majorities without sufficient vetting.   In a world of exponential and rapid change, unpredictable superpowered enemies with hyper speed weapons systems, and our own legislative machine increasingly paralyzed by polarized dysfunction, and political parties more committed to protecting its power than the security of our people or defending the constitution.

 

7. Democratic Republic with Lawmakers elected by a majority of ignorant voters with most votes based their personal gut feeling, party affiliation, misinformation, disinformation, conspiracy theory, special interests, self-interests, or not voting at all out of protest.  And the likelihood that only half of the voters decide to turn out at all.  Then there is the issue of each Congressional district now having over 700,000 constituents when originally there were only 20,000.  This leaves each voter with the accurate feeling that their individual vote means next to nothing.  This enables those with big money to more easily rig the rules for themselves.  Which hurts most other constituents in a zero sum budget. 

“Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance. No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have researched the records for years and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.” - H.L. Mencken, Notes on Democracy

"[D]emocracy will soon degenerate into an anarchy, such an anarchy that every man will do what is right in his own eyes and no man's life or property or reputation or liberty will be secure, and every one of these will soon mold itself into a system of subordination of all the moral virtues and intellectual abilities, all the powers of wealth, beauty, wit and science, to the wanton pleasures, the capricious will, and the execrable cruelty of one or a very few."   -- John Adams  (1735-1826) Founding Father, 2nd US President.   Source: An Essay on Man's Lust for Power, August 29, 1763

8.  Secrecy: This makes it virtually impossible to know the truth about what our government is doing.  Or has done with our tax dollars.  This undermines the trust of voters and the value of voting when valid signs or even accusations of corruption or waste is reported.  Secrecy also prevents citizens from holding government agencies, their leaders/policymakers accountable in a timely manner or at all, if at all.

“Everything secret degenerates, even the administration of justice; nothing is safe that does not show it can bear discussion and publicity.” - Lord Acton 

“The liberties of a people never were, nor ever will be, secure, when the transactions of their rulers may be concealed from them.” - Patrick Henry, American colonial 

Read:  America’s Secret Government Crisis, by Patrick Eddington Posted on January 20, 2022, https://original.antiwar.com/patrick_eddington/2022/01/19/americas-secret-government-crisis

“It’s important to remember that the Constitution only mentions secrecy once, and not in connection with the executive branch but Congress – Article I, Section 5. Congress was the original arbiter of what should or should not be kept from the public, and if America’s governmental secrecy sickness is to be cured, it must reclaim that leading role.” Patrick Eddington

9. Ambiguous words and phrases in the Constitution - or with the meaning or context of those words changed over time. This has led to various altered interpretations over the years. Some of the most notable examples include:

1. "General Welfare": The Preamble of the Constitution states that one of its purposes is to "promote the general Welfare." Its meaning has been the subject of debate, with some interpreting it broadly to justify a wide range of federal government activities and others interpreting it more narrowly to limit the scope of federal power.

 

2. "Commerce": The Commerce Clause (Article I, Section 8, Clause 3) grants Congress the power to regulate interstate commerce. The meaning of "commerce" has been the subject of numerous Supreme Court cases, with the Court often expanding the definition to encompass a wide range of economic activities.

 

3. "Necessary and Proper": The Necessary and Proper Clause (Article I, Section 8, Clause 18) grants Congress the power to make all laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into execution the enumerated powers. The meaning of "necessary and proper" has been debated, with some arguing that it gives Congress broad discretion to enact laws to achieve its goals, while others argue for a more limited interpretation.

 

4. "Cruel and Unusual Punishment": The Eighth Amendment prohibits the infliction of "cruel and unusual punishments." The meaning of "cruel and unusual" has evolved over time and is often subject to interpretation based on contemporary standards of decency.

 

5. "Due Process": The Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments guarantee that no person shall be deprived of "life, liberty, or property, without due process of law." The meaning of "due process" has been the subject of numerous Supreme Court cases, with the Court interpreting it to encompass both procedural and substantive rights.

 

These are just a few examples.  There are many other words and phrases in the Constitution that have been subject to interpretation and debate. 

 

SUMMARY:  You wouldn’t fly in an airplane or spacecraft engineered and constructed using with ambitious words for systems and structures it depended on to bring you back to earth safely. Why on spaceship earth (thank you Bucky Fuller!) would you believe and trust this method of engineering to work at all? 

10.         The unstoppable partisan stacking of Supreme court appointees.  This increases the loss of trust in and stability of its decisions.

CONCLUSTION:  "America does not need another political campaign based on denial and avoidance of some of our real problems. It needs a crusade to reform and renew our country, its institutions and political system." - Richard Lamm   Reform Party's nomination for President of the United States in 1996.

"I would not use the US Constitution as a template if I was creating a new constitution."    Justice Ruth Bader Ginzberg

 

 

The Declaration of Independence is the foundation of thought that uniquely represents the original American ideal.  It has inspired billions of people globally.   It represents the simple yet profound concept that government exists to ensure people’s innate freedoms and inalienable rights.  In short, securing everyone’s “Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness” within the context of “the Laws of Nature and Nature’s God”.

 

“We therefore believe in liberty because we believe in the harmony of the universe, that is, in God. Proclaiming in the name of faith, formulating in the name of science, the divine laws, flexible and vital, of our dynamic moral order, we utterly reject the narrow, unwieldy, and static institutions that some men in their blindness would heedlessly introduce into this admirable mechanism.”    – George B. De Huszar

 

Sadly, many Americans have difficulty distinguishing between our Constitution and the Declaration.  Abraham Lincoln made it easy.  He wrote that our “Declaration of Independence is our Apple of Gold” and our “Constitution” its “Frame of Silver”.  A biblical reference with poetic and functional meaning.

 

"If all men are created equal, that is final.   If they are endowed with inalienable rights, that is final. If governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed, that is final. No advance, no progress can be made beyond these propositions."  Calvin Coolidge   (1872-1933) 30th US President.  Commemorating the 150th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.