Thursday, April 25, 2024

The future of war? Who knows?

This rant was inspired by a Rand Institute article: The U.S.-China Rivalry in a New Medieval Age, by Doug Erving.  Mar 19, 2024   

https://www.rand.org/pubs/articles/2024/the-us-china-rivalry-in-a-new-medieval-age.html??cutoff=true&utm_source=AdaptiveMailer&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=7014N000001SnhoQAC&utm_term=00v4N00000X4bruQAB&org=1674&lvl=100&ite=286825&lea=504041&ctr=0&par=1&trk=a0wQK000003h5AnYAI 


Superpower governments and others are struggling to govern as tribal politics, economic inequality, social unrest and cultural division continue to grow within the US.  And in the Spring of 2024 a Pew Research Center survey found that less than 20 percent of the people answered saying they trusted our federal government to do the right thing.  

COVID should have brought Americans together but instead it continued to drive us apart.  This continued the polarization created by a US military reaction to the mass murder of American on Sept 11, 2001 that led to ‘permanent’ wars against a terrorist tactic that will never be defeated militarily. 

China and other totalitarian and democratic nations are experiencing inequality, slowing economic growth, and growing tensions.  Crime and corruption are rampant in many nations.  And populist leaders increasingly continue to rely on repression to maintain order and authority.  Nuclear armed nations security and defense budgets continue to grow as debts sore.

Conflicts can distract populations from their own problems, but most governments can ill afford launching any conflicts.  But competition continues between superpowers and sides are being picked.

One Rand analyst asserts that “Decisionmakers need to adopt a more neomedieval mindset. They cannot assume the public will get behind a war effort that requires real and sustained sacrifice. Other threats—a pandemic, climate change, political upheaval—will always vie for attention and resources. With nations everywhere facing the same challenges, partners and allies will also be stretched thin.” 

That suggests that the United States and China are unlikely to risk escalation and are more likely be in a long-running, low-intensity state of conflict.  Is that realistic given China and Russia both committed to expanding their territories and influence.   The Middle East could erupt if Israel takes out Iran’s nuclear capability.  A Chinese blockade of Taiwan is another possible conflict that could escalate.  It’s hard to imagine either clash being modest given the modern weapon systems involved.  And any stop or recovery period would be expensive and unstable.   Battles will likely be fought in cyberspace, economic arenas, and ‘gray zones’ just short of war. But the use of biological or chemical weapons should not be forgotten or ill prepared for.

Cold War or the world war analogies may not be useful anymore, but history has a way of rhyming.

The Rand analysts believe “The neomedieval era is here to stay,” he and his coauthors wrote. The trends they documented “are structural,” they added, “and return to the conditions of the industrial nation-state is impossible…. The sooner U.S. decisionmakers and planners recognize and accept the reality of the neomedieval era, the sooner appropriate and effective strategies and plans can be developed.”

American policy makers are not known for heeding warnings or wise recommendations.  But these analyst’s five “Trends That Define Neomedievalism” below are worth serious consideration given they are likely to “shape the rivalry between China and the United States” in this new era:

1.       Weakening states: Governments will struggle to maintain legitimacy; ensure domestic security; and provide levels of goods, services, and opportunities their people expect.

2.       Fragmenting societies: National spirit will erode as competing group identities, such as sub- and transnational communities, gain traction.

3.       Imbalanced economies: Growth will be concentrated in a few sectors. Problems of entrenched inequality, stagnant social mobility, and illicit economies will worsen.

4.       Pervasive threats: The proliferation of dangers, such as natural disasters, infectious disease, and violent nonstate actors, will create a sense of permeating risk, even as the possibility of conflict with rival states persists.

5.       Informalization of warfare: Military forces will increasingly consist of professional troops augmented by contractors, mercenaries, and sympathetic armed groups such as militias. Older methods of fighting, such as intrastate conflicts, sieges, and irregular conflict, will be revived.

Russia is learning all of this the hard way.  It rolled its tanks and troops into Ukraine as if it were fighting a conventional, industrial-age war.... Since then, it has struggled to carry out even a partial mobilization. It has gone to ever-greater lengths to avoid any sense of sacrifice at home. Instead, it has bolstered its battered army with mercenaries and militia, some loyal to criminal warlords. It has targeted civilian areas, hoping to break Ukraine's will to fight, rather than attempt any more knockout blows with armored columns. And it has brought back that most medieval of tactics, the siege.”

But advances in weapons systems that will soon be accelerated with AI leading to changes in warfare we can only imagine...I wouldn’t count on siege tactics being relevant much longer.   Future historians may “look back at the Russian war as a turning point, the end of one chapter and the start of another” but one would be a fool to think “the story” will pick up “where it left off two centuries ago.” “The novelty here isn't the arrival of a new medieval age” is correct.  But unless the world changes the foundation of the western ‘Westphalian system established 400 years ago, humanity may not get another 20 years to gain the wisdom needed to create a truly global system of governance that puts the protection of human freedoms and security with sustainable environmental progress as the bottom line for the future of civilized human experiences. 


The ‘Peace’ Movement has failed. Why? And what is urgently needed.

 

The ‘Peace’ Movement has failed.  Why?   

"The battle for the world is the battle for definitions."  -- Thomas Szasz

(1920-2012) Hungarian-American Professor of Psychiatry

 Rotary International made Peace its first mission during the RI Convention in 1921.  There it adopted a resolution to promote peace laying the groundwork for Rotary's ongoing commitment to peacebuilding, conflict resolution, and prevention efforts worldwide.  It incorporated into its constitution the goal “to aid in the advancement of international peace and goodwill through a fellowship of business and professional men of all nations united in the Rotary ideal of service.”  It has not changed in over 100 years.   [This statement needs a change!]

 The roots of the global peace movement goes back centuries.  It gained significant momentum in the 19th and 20th centuries with movements like the anti-war efforts during the Napoleonic Wars, the formation of peace societies in the 19th century, then widespread activism for peace during and after both World Wars, the Vietnam war, the Cold war, and the Global War Against Terrorism.  It’s likely the concept of advocating for peace has existed throughout human history in various forms.

 "For peace to reign on Earth, humans must evolve into new beings who have learned to see the whole first." - Immanuel Kant

 Many people have growing concerns that another World War is feasible as reactionary, retaliatory, and escalating trends of violence are reported with no cooling down in sight as superpower democracies and totalitarian nations are picking sides.  Each side is vying for collaboration and access to dozens of other nonaligned states.  Even with fragile underdeveloped nations. Some with civil wars or nearing one.

Add to this, a rising tide of disinformation determined to increase chaos within democracies already struggling.  Some of our adversaries are using the truth about our democracy’s disfunction hoping to recruit other countries into their axis.  Meanwhile, most people are thinking about two things.  Governments can’t always be trusted.  And things are only going to worsen.  Even worse, few minds grasp the rapid evolution of weaponry’s increasing power, speed, affordability, availability, and difficulty in detecting or defending against it.  Plus the dilemma of AI’s acceleration of all of this.    Advocating for PEACE has failed and another approach is urgently needed.  What people really want most is to survive and thrive.  That requires freedom and security.  Peace has not ensured either. 

“Poverty is the worst form of Violence”. Mahatma Ghandhi

 “The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their proper name.”  Confucius

 Humanity has always had the answer.  But those in power usually chose other options.  And ‘we the people’ have yet to unite and insist that government apply the fundamental principles needed to prevent violence.  Like ‘a child should not die before their parent(s)’.   Humanity eradicated smallpox which killed more people in 70 years of the last century than all the wars, revolutions, and genocides combined during that same entire century!  We’ve held dozens Olympic games with every nationality, race, religion, and gender competing, and only once was there violence, and it was from an outside source.  Wealthy nations have engineered technologies that put humans on the moon and returned them safely. Collectively we have the means to educate every person consistently and cheaply on earth - if governments allow it.  We also have the capacity to meet all other basic needs within hours, using sustainable delivery systems with humanities unprecedent global wealth.  Why don’t we?  What causes this stubborn and dangerous global disconnect between meeting the basic needs of every man, woman, and child - and the increasingly unstable and increasingly lethal conditions that our species, and many other species, now appear trapped in?

 What the world most needs at this moment is a means of convincing human beings to embrace the whole of the species as their moral community. For this we need to develop an utterly nonsectarian way of talking about the full spectrum of human experience and human aspiration." - Sam Harris

 The answer is quite simple, affordable, and ignored.  Unfortunately, most minds resist change.  Why won’t people use universally defined words to form and express their personal or political beliefs that could avoid violence.  Why do most minds fail to distinguish between ambiguous and unambiguous words?  Why does our mind’s capacity to believe anything lead to violently defending a belief?   The minds of scientists and engineers appear to work differently.  They usually use their minds for finding and solving problems, not creating them.  Sadly, they make amazing things like cellphones or nuclear weapons yet rarely make decisions on how they are used.  Song writers, poets, politicians, and preachers freely use words anyway they like.  Some inspire and motivate people to do great things. Others to commit genocide.  Yet the fundamental principle underlying every religion - the Golden rule – is rarely practiced.  But now this is urgently needed to make wise use of science and every technology.  What will it take to bind the hearts and minds of all humanity to do what is possible, affordable, and in everyone’s best interest?   Scientists and engineers rely on the “Laws of Nature.”  The signers of the Declaration of Independence also cited the laws of “Nature’s God” in that profound universal appeal.  Catastrophically they failed to use both sets of fundamental laws in framing the Constitution.  That resulted in more American deaths than all the wars our nation has fought in since then, combined!

 The sustainable freedoms and security of humanity into the future is possible.  But only if we prioritize taking care of nature and each other.  This is what Thomas Paine advocated in his pamphlet Common Sense.   He didn’t see earth as a spaceship.  But common-sense dictates that it is.  With nature as our basic life support system.  The origins of Earth, nature, and humans (God, evolution, or both) does not matter.  What does is the agency that ‘We the people’ have always had to ensure our healthy and sustainable future.

 ‘The Declaration of Independence is our Apple of Gold.  The Constitution is its frame of silver.’  Abraham Lincoln

“Like apples of gold in settings of silver Is a word spoken in right circumstances.”  Proverbs 25:11 New American Standard Bible

 Memorize the following 11 words.  ‘Everything is connected, interdependent, and vulnerable. We need a global effort.’   Define “everything”?  It actually defines itself.  That is what ‘autological’ words doAnd each of these 11 words are autological.  This phrase above is the fundamental law of the universe yet unknown to most minds.  We believe we and other things are independent.  But independence is just a word or concept that we invented.  It exists nowhere in the known universe except as an dumb idea in our minds and applied foolishly to almost everything as a cherished principle.  

"The action of even the tiniest creature leads to changes in the entire Universe." Nikola Tesla

"Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves. All things are bound together. All things connect." - Chief Seattle, Duwamish

“A great part of that order which reigns among mankind is not the effect of government. It had its origin in the principles of society and the natural constitution of man. It existed prior to government, and would exist if the formality of government was abolished. The mutual dependence and reciprocal interest which man has upon man, and all parts of a civilized community upon each other, create that great chain of connection which holds it together. The landholder, the farmer, the manufacturer, the merchant, the tradesman, and every occupation, prospers by the aid which each receives from the other, and from the whole. Common interest regulates their concerns, and forms their laws; and the laws which common usage ordains, have a greater influence than the laws of government. In fine, society performs for itself almost everything which is ascribed to government.   Thomas Paine, Rights of Man [1791]

"A human being is part of the whole, called by us 'Universe'; a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings, as something separated from the rest - a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and affection for a few persons nearest us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circle of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole nature in its beauty. Nobody is able to achieve this completely, but striving for such achievement is, in itself, a part of the liberation, and a foundation for inner security."   -Albert Einstein.  As quoted in Quantum Reality, Beyond the New Physics, p. 250.

Before you finish eating breakfast in the morning, you've depended on more than half of the world. This is the way our universe is structured, this is its interrelated quality. We aren't going to have peace on earth until we recognize this basic fact of the interrelated structure of all reality.” Martin Luther King, Jr.

 ********************

Peace has many definitions.  How’s that working out for us?   Democracy has many also. 

 “There is a natural obstacle to progress in abstract thought, which has often delayed rational inquiry; an erroneous concept or theory may be expressed in terms which embody the error, so that thinking is blocked until the misleading words are discarded from the given context.”   Isabel Paterson

Freedom is real!  We are free to do anything we want but we (and everything around us) will not be free of the consequences.  Those consequences can be helpful or harmful to everything’s health or security.  The possibility of it being helpful increases with the virtue of the action.  And vice versa.   In summary, do your best to help nature and each other.  Or prepare for the harmful consequences.

“You cannot get through a single day without having an impact on the world around you. Whatever you do makes a difference.  You have to decide what kind of difference you want to make” Jane Goodall. 

The essential solution for solving our problems is establishing consistent working definitions of words and phrases used for engineering anything and everything that humanity needs and wants for sustainability.  Then we can still leave all words for poets, pastors, song writers, and conspiracy theorists for expressing themselves as they feel the need. 

"How strangely will the Tools of a Tyrant pervert the plain Meaning of Words!" – Samuel Adams, letter to John Pitts [January 21, 1776]

 “But if thought corrupts language, language can also corrupt thought.’  George Orwell

 “When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”

Humpty Dumpty, Through the Looking Glass.

 "That's not a lie, it's a terminological inexactitude."  -- Alexander Haig

"Political language -- and with variations this is true of all political parties, from Conservatives to Anarchists -- is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind."   George Orwell  [Eric Arthur Blair]  British author

"False words are not only evil in themselves, but they infect the soul with evil." — Socrates

“The word ‘Democracy’ is a chimera in our politics. It means whatever the speaker says it does.”  Pericles, Athenian Statesman. 

"We recognize the force of the argument that the effects of war under modern conditions may be felt in the economy for years and years, and that if the war power can be used in days of peace to treat all the wounds which war inflicts on our society, it may not only swallow up all other powers of Congress but largely obliterate the Ninth and the Tenth Amendments as well."   -- Justice William O. Douglas 

"Throughout history, it has been the inaction of those who could have acted; the indifference of those who should have known better; the silence of the voice of justice when it mattered most; that has made it possible for evil to triumph": Haile Selassie

Alternative word(s) to replace “Peace” or “Democracy”?  The Rule of Law!  Make Law not War!. No Justice...no peace.   No peace with poverty.   Peace does not ensure freedom or security.  It is just the period of time that allows each side to rearm.

Community Peace quotes:   

 "Peace is not merely a distant goal that we seek, but a means by which we arrive at that goal." - Martin Luther King Jr.

"If you want to make peace with your enemy, you have to work with your enemy. Then he becomes your partner." - Nelson Mandela

 "The first peace, which is the most important, is that which comes within the souls of people when they realize their relationship, their oneness with the universe and all its powers, and when they realize that at the center of the universe dwells the Great Spirit, and that this center is really everywhere, it is within each of us." - Black Elk

 "An eye for an eye only ends up making the whole world blind." - Mahatma Gandhi

 "If we have no peace, it is because we have forgotten that we belong to each other." - Mother Teresa

 Peace is a biblical concept that means more than the absence of war or conflict. It is derived from the Hebrew word shalom, which means "to be complete" or "to be sound". Peace implies a condition of freedom from disturbance, both outwardly and inwardly, and a state of well-being in relation to both man and God. Peace is a gift from God and a fruit of the Spirit.

 "We do not want a PAX Americana enforced on the world by American weapons of war. Not the peace of the grave or the security of the slave. I am talking about genuine peace, the kind of peace that makes life on earth worth living, the kind that enables men and nations to grow and to hope and to build a better life for their children -- not merely peace for Americans but peace for all men and women -- not merely peace in our time but peace for all time."  - John F. Kennedy (1963)

 To maintain peace throughout the world, the grounds for conflict should be reduced as much as possible. The first step in this direction must be to respect and protect private property throughout the world. The ideal would also include complete freedom of trade and freedom of movement. Political boundaries would no longer be determined under threat of military conquest or aggressive economic nationalism, but rather by legal plebiscite, i.e., by vote of the individuals concerned. In such a world, the national sovereignty under which one lived or worked would be relatively immaterial.  Bettina Bien Greaves, The Freeman [September 1979]

“Peace is the natural state of man, war the temporary repeal of reason and virtue.”  Hans F. Sennholz

 

ChatGPT4 definitions of three areas of Peace

 1. **Inner Peace:** A state of mental and emotional tranquility, where an individual experiences a sense of calmness, balance, and harmony within oneself, often achieved through self-reflection and mindfulness practices.

 2. **Community Peace:** The harmony and well-being within a local or societal group, involving positive relationships, cooperation, and a lack of conflict among its members, contributing to a stable and thriving community.

 3. **Global Peace:** The absence of conflict and violence on a global scale, characterized by diplomatic resolutions, cooperation among nations, and the promotion of justice and equality to foster a secure and harmonious world.

 Other areas of peace could include environmental peace, referring to the balance and sustainability in the natural world, and technological peace, emphasizing ethical and responsible use of technology to prevent harm and conflicts.

My Summary: The idea that peace can only be achieved by taking care of nature and each other is rooted in the recognition of interconnectedness and interdependence. However, achieving this vision requires a collective shift in mindset and behavior, as well as systemic changes at various levels of society.

 Our challenge is that short-term and special interests often take precedence over long-term sustainability and well-being of people and nature.  Successfully addressing complex issues such as environmental degradation, social inequality, and conflict resolution needs multifaceted approaches and collaboration across different sectors and stakeholders.  Thus, the UN 17 Sustainable Development Goals.

 Moreover, there are competing priorities and interests that can hinder progress, including economic considerations, political power dynamics, and cultural differences. Overcoming these obstacles necessitates sustained efforts to promote awareness, foster empathy, and enact policies that prioritize the well-being of both people and the planet.

 Ultimately, achieving peace through the care of nature and each other requires a fundamental shift in values, priorities, and actions, as well as a commitment to building a more just, equitable, and sustainable world for present and future generations.

The only thing this visionary publication is missing is the formula to make Congress politically functional with the capacity to achieve what is scientifically possible and desperately needed.  Origins, Worlds, and Life: A Decadal Strategy for Planetary Science and Astrobiology 2023-2032’A report by the U.S. National Academy of Science

 If you would like the text of these quotes, please send an email to ‘chuck@igc.org