Trade and Trump: Potential national security consequences of Trump’s
anti-trade policies: 1-29-17
Autarky is a word economists use
to describe a country that is self-sufficient. In reality no nation can clearly meet the
definition of this economic term. But
some try. North Korea is the closest
nation to earning that title, but only if one don’t consider the number of its
own citizens starving to death for lack of adequate food.
Chances are, the more developed an economy becomes, the less
likely it is to be considered an autarky and, the more a nation depends on
trade, the more it can affordably maintain its citizens lifestyle. Even if that lifestyle is detrimental to both
the individuals health and mental well being, and their local and our global environment.
But that’s another discussion (www.pachamama.org).
The U.S and many other advanced developed
nations are on the other end of this spectrum.
We all depend on resources from other nations to maintain our own
quality of life. Occasionally, some
foreign commodities are vital our own national security. Consider rare elements used in most of our
sophisticated military weaponry and our cyber infrastructure that now organizes
and facilitates most of our vital necessities.
Trump’s initiation of any new
trade rules that run the risk of launching us into a global trade war may initially
help small numbers of American manufacturers.
But in the longer run it will likely effect the quality of life for 99%
of Americans. The 1% who own offshore
assets and can get there, won’t be much affected. Worst case scenario for the rest of us is that
it could be devastating to our nation in ways that few are talking about, and
even fewer can imagine.
Anyone with a basic understanding
of biological facts (fundamental principles or ‘self-evident truths’) knows
that there are at least two commodities essential to sustaining life: adequate food
and clean water. Equally self-evident to any thinking person is
the connection between these two. Scarcity
of one foreshadows scarcity in the other.
What is far less comprehended by
some is that to ensure we have enough of both of these for our entire
population of over 300 million people, is that we need resources from other countries
to prevent chaos from within our own national borders.
And, the really bad news? If others beyond our borders practice harmful
environmental habits, the climate and weather patterns that nature freely
provides us may result in extremely undesirable impacts on our own capacity to
provide both food and water to all Americans.
Again, increasing the possibility of monstrously uncivil chaos within
our own borders.
Consider water, the most essential
component of life. And, the one we take
most for granted. It is unlikely to be
crated or destroyed in any significant levels but it is both increasingly contaminated
by our quest for fossil fuels, and mal-distributed by climate changes accelerated
by our persistent dependence on them.
The law of supply and demand predicts water costs will increase
with time. And, one peer-reviewed
website PLOS ONE with Michigan State researchers confirm this is happening. According to them the average U.S. household now
pays $49 a month for water. That’s over 40 percent higher than five years ago. That cost is expected to rise to $120 a month
in the early 2020s. According to the EPA over 11 percent of U.S. households
already have to sacrifice other essential expenditures to afford clean water. This meets the EPA’s definition of unaffordable. At $120, the percentage rises to 33
percent. They may leave most of American’s
lower middle economic class struggling even more to make ends meet.
Fracking demands large amounts of water causing a ripple effect of
shortages, polluted water, and even an increase in minor earth quakes. But a larger cause is old and inadequate
infrastructure. Most U.S. water infrastructure is over 70 years old. Some even older. In our nation’s own Capitol water runs through
wooden pipes built before the civil war.
Experts estimate that restoring
our existing infrastructure will cost $1 trillion, with another half a trillion
needed to ensure that water is safe to drink.
Both political parties agree on the need to address this and other
infrastructure deficits. Unfortunately, lack of political will to finance all them,
means some will not get funded and risk even more national security weakness than
insufficient clean water, which is linked both infectious disease and toxicity
problems that will increasingly stress our health care system, now the single
largest driver of our budget deficit and significant driver of political
division between well-meaning Americans.
Advances in technology will allow us to overcome some, perhaps
most of these infrastructure problems. But
the dual use nature of all technology brings other problems no autocracy and
not economically dominant nation can hide from. The increasing power, affordability and
ubiquity of all technologies means unhappy entities anywhere in the world can
cause unprecedented harm almost anywhere else in the world. Cyber, bio and robotic technologies hold the potential
to reek havoc or even mass deaths with viruses targeted for specific people,
ethnic groups’ or even broad swaths of the planet regardless of commodity
barriers.
But just focusing on commodities
and critical US infrastructure we are irreversibly dependent on the rest of the
world. Particularly China. Scandium, a metal completely sourced from
China – is used in finding underground leaks in water and oil pipes -- and oil
refining.
Natural graphite is also 100
percent sourced from abroad. China and
Mexico are its largest suppliers. This
commodity is vital in products ranging from batteries to steel.
Then consider fluorspar, another
commodity that is 100 percent foreign sourced. Again, China and Mexico are
leading exporters. Its uses include stimulating
oil and water wells, providing catalytic activity in oil refining, and reducing
costs of water desalinization.
As water shortages and costs continue to climb while critical infrastructures
compete for shrinking budgets and the global forces of terrorism, climate
change, poverty, refugees, infectious diseases, WMD proliferation, prejudice
and other environmental problems that have no respect for commodity blocking
borders continue to sew political discontent, President Trump would be wise to reconsider
is “America First” trade policies.
Good trade deals are
desirable but unless they take into account the impact on all human lives,
their rights and the essential life support system (the environment) the world
will continue down a path that no US President, no US Congress, and no US
Supreme court can remedy. Not without passing
US policies that take into account the fundamental “truths” that our nation’s
founding fathers considered “self evident.”
Like real war, no nation will go without tremendous losses in a trade
war. It would behoove all Americans to
consider growing their own food and reducing their water waste, water contamination,
and dependence on fossil fuels. An
energy source that harm damn near every element of our lives other than the immediate
stock prices of those who deal in it.
For those who believe gold is the ultimate commodity for sustain ably acquiring
essential resources I urge you to consider two other element that may have
greater power. Lead and steel. Other minerals can be used in making bullets,
guns, and shovels but I hoping they get the point.
Economic wealth won’t protect them from the destructive and lethal forces
now growing globally, and the growing political discontent that greed, hunger
and other unchecked injustices create.