Maybe. If so, prepare for greater losses of our nation’s freedom, security, prosperity, and what little congeniality we have left, than anything since 9-11 nearly two decades ago. Why?
The personal, local, and global impact of the exponential growth of technology is nearly impossible to comprehend mentally. So, more importantly, understand that it is literally impossible for our form of government to effectively respond to this profound growth. The local and global implications of this indescribable pace of technological change should NOT be underestimated. Nor the commitment and capacity of Iran to use it to their advantage given our unpreceded dependence on technology and our malfunctioning ‘sick care’ system to manage biological or cyber threats.
The Iranian general murdered by a US drone strike was a leap beyond the recent escalation of non-lethal tactics that both the US and Iran have been waging. Funny thing about humans. Killings have consequences.
Some rational for this killing goes back to the last Iraq war. The targeted general was linked to Shiite elements attacking US forces using “the most-dreaded explosive devise” Americans soldiers encountered there - ‘high-tech IEDs” engineered by Iranian scientists. These were “complex and difficult to produce” but slightly smaller than a coffee can and easy to conceal. But they could effectively penetrate inches of armor and obliterate crews inside of our best fighting machines. These explosively formed penetrators (EFPs) “killed at least 196 US troops and wounded nearly 900 between 2005 and 2011.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/01/03/soleimanis-legacy-gruesome-high-tech-ieds-that-haunted-us-troops-iraq/
In 2007 a “senior defense official told the Washington Post “We honestly did not believe that these guys were capable of doing this kind of stuff…we underestimated them.’”
Never underestimate Persians (or anyone, especially those with a grudge). The most popular sport in Iran is wrestling. Most Americans think wrestling is about strength or believe its a scripted tussle. That’s understandable given how little real wrestling is covered within our nation’s sports pages - if its covered at all. What’s vital to understanding the problem we are all wrestling with called terrorism…is that strength is rarely a deciding factor in conflict. It’s useful, but more important in deciding victories is technique, tactics, strategy, and commitment. Iranian’s dominate the Olympics and World Game competition in wrestling when the Russians aren’t doing it. Neither should ever be underestimated.
Hawkish US policy makers and patriots understandably justify our nation’s assassination of one of their generals. But if their memory goes back further than our insanely calculated invasion of Iraq, they may remember that during our alliance with Iraq the US provided both biological and chemical weapons precursors to Saddam during his war with Iran. He used these WMD precursors and our assistance in targeting and inflicting tens of thousands of casualties on Iranian troops.
Why did we do that? Because US policy before that was motivated by the embarrassment of Iranians capturing our embassy there along with 52 American diplomats and citizens and holding them for 444 days.
Why? Because many Iranians were rightfully angered by US covert operations influencing the overthrow of their democratically elected Iranian leader, and replacing him with a brutal thug friendly to US interests.
Yes. Nation states often try to influence elections in other states. (During the US Presidential election in 2004 I worked for MoveOn in New Hampshire. A week before the election we were inundated with ‘insurgents’ from the surrounding states of Vermont, Maine and Massachusetts.) Political borders do not stop the chaos that spread between borders (national or global) and narrow interests within any limited political boundary are impacted by all those around it. Combine this local influence with the global influence of technology, economics, health, crime, and environmental factors and this ‘interference’ is understandable. Legal? Yes, within the US federation. No. within a global confederation where the only real law is the law of the jungle. The lack of enforcement capacity, or the protection of human rights or the environment, in international law leaves only war, sanctions, diplomacy, terrorism, or assassinations in an attempt to hold any real or perceived aggression accountable. Revenge? Yes. And given the absence of any form of real justice between nations that’s what we are left with.
But in a world where everyone is left with increasing capacity for mass murder resulting in increasing government efforts and technological capacity to invade anyone’s privacy…don’t expect to stay safe or believe your other valuable freedoms will protect you or continue.
When drones or computers can deliver biological or cyber viruses that can catastrophically disrupt human or political bodies…with no affordable (or politically acceptable) means of stopping them before they cause damage, or even identifying their origins with absolute certainty, until after the damage, no one should be rationally optimistic about the future.
Studies show that optimists are more likely to overlook the barriers in achieving their goal. Again, underestimation can be catastrophic. Trump’s election is the best evidence of progressive optimism.
His optimism regarding his assassination policy is unlikely to end well.
We must urgently make the choice between the global rule of law...or nature's law of force. If we fail to abide by the Laws of Nature's God...(the Golden Rule) expect hell on earth.
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