Below are over 90 “unsustainable” trends in the US and the World. (Draft 8-16-23)
What follows is a rock solid context for urgently funding the UNs 17 Sustainable Development Goals. Most in alignment with Rotary International’s seven overarching areas of service.
By definition, anything unsustainable cannot continue. Without change failure is predictable. Given the vulnerability of our established human systems and structures (our body, family, community, economy, environment, nation, and all other nations) trends below should not be ignored.
The ‘one’ issue that keeps our US national security leaders ‘up at night’ is what they/we don’t see coming. Especially given that it would likely cause a cascading effect across multiple sectors. Think of the attacks on 9-11, Covid19, Russia invasion of Ukraine, Fires in Maui fueled by non-native invasive grasses and high winds.
The list below is incomplete. But it is intended to motivate an increasingly urgent need for the world to invest achieving the 17 Sustainable Development Goals comprehensively.
As Bank America CEO Brian Moynihan claims governments are too burdened by debt’ and ‘charity is insufficient’. …capitalism with a greater purpose than pure profit can do it. Profit must have a a bigger purpose. It needs to step up and prioritize a balancing of short-term gains with long term interests globally…to have profits sustainable.
Now remember this quote: “Everything is connected, everything is interdependent, so everything is vulnerable.... And that’s why this has to be a more than whole of government, a more than whole of nation [effort]. It really has to be a global effort....” Jen Easterly. CISA director. Oct. 29, 2021. [the Cyber and Infrastructure Security Agency is our nation’s newest federal agency.
Debt, Finance, and Jobs
US Govt Debt: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/americas-debt-spree-isnt-stopping-it-might-soon-be-too-late/2020/01/26/49241ce8-3ee0-11ea-b90d-5652806c3b3a_story.html
US Govt expanding exposure to risky mortgages: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/federal-government-has-dramatically-expanded-exposure-to-risky-mortgages/2019/10/02/d862ab40-ce79-11e9-87fa-8501a456c003_story.html
US personal Debt: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2019/11/22/the-finance-202-personal-loans-are-surging-that-s-an-economic-red-flag/5dd7063c88e0fa652bbbd90e/
US student debt: https://www.nitrocollege.com/research/average-student-loan-debt
Growing interest on US debt: https://www.thebalance.com/interest-on-the-national-debt-4119024
Rising US income inequality at “steady pace” (according to government CBO 2019 analysis): https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-12/55941-CBO-Household-Income.pdf
Rising global income inequality: http://www.ipsnews.net/2020/01/rising-inequality-affecting-two-thirds-globe-not-inevitable-new-un-report/
Increasing US military spending: https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2019/04/18/us-military-spending-set-increase-fifth-consecutive-year-nearing-levels-during-height-iraq-war/
Growing global elderly population: https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/worlds-older-population-grows-dramatically
Growing US elderly population: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2018/10/snapshot-fast-growing-us-older-population.html
Growing lack of affordable Housing;
Growing price of home insurance pricing;
Rise in Cryptocurrency globalizing unaccountability of wealth and actions
Increasing medical costs related to treating consequences of sustained poor eating habits and alack of physical inactivity in US population.
Rise in China and India both projected to overtake the U.S. in terms of economic output by 2050.
Decline in US Union memberships.
Failure to invest in vital aging domestic infrastructure.
US government dysfunction in dealing with national or global problems of any kind. “When all government, domestic and foreign, in little as in great things, shall be drawn to Washington as the center of all power, it will render powerless the checks provided of one government on another and will become as venal and oppressive as the government from which we separated.” – Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Charles Hammond [1821]
Legally sustained flow of taxable wealth into tax evading offshore accounts.
Unchecked corporate influencing on government and public policy:
Decline in international cooperation:
Increasing number of refugees:
Increasing number of failing states:
Increasing populism:
Decline in human freedoms:
Decline in number of democracies:
Decline in local newspapers:
Decline in US birth rates combined with increasing resistance to increasing foreign immigration numbers:
Increasing interference of foreign entities in US elections:
Decline in public trust of the media.
Growth in misinformation technology: fake news and deep fake technology.
Decline in public trust in government.
Decline in public trust in science.
Decline of US and UN institutional legitimacy:
Increasingly unfriendly political dialog/civil discourse.
Increasing possibility of domestic violence/terrorism as civil discourse and hyper political domestic polarization increase:
Declining political cooperation between political parties.
Accelerating infectious disease threats from natural evolution: Both new (like Covid) or re-emerging (like Polio and STDs).
Acceleration of Biological threats from lab accidents:
Acceleration of Biological threats from intentional weaponization of pathogens by nations, groups, or individuals:
Increase in antibiotic resistance pathogens globally.
Psychological:
Rising youth suicide rates:
Between 1999 and 2014: a 45 % increase in women’s suicide rate (16% rise among men)
Rising death rate among white middle-aged women
Rise in mental illness:
Increasing loneliness: greatest public health problem according to US Surgeon General
Persistent government resistance to increasing investments in preventive measures.
Decline in US life expectancy over last 3 years (last decline was recorded in 1917 from Spanish flu)
Education
Declining numbers of US students with math, science and engineering majors.
Decline in new international enrollments 3.3 percent in 2016/17
Total number of international students slightly decreased between 2017 and 2018.
Since 2000, the U.S. has been progressively losing market share of students to other countries (Australia, Germany, Canada and China)
Environmental: Unsustainable global trends that effect US citizens.
Increasing global temperatures
Increasing extreme weather patterns
Increasing extinction of species.
Rising sea levels.
Declining fisheries.
Increasing plastics in the ocean, air and soil.
Accelerating loss of arable land.
Increasing shortage of clean fresh water.
Dwindling fresh water aquifer supplies.
Increasing loss of forests.
Increasing loss of natural habitats
Increasing wasteful consumption patterns beyond earth’s natural systems to sustain
Increasing loss of small farms and farmers.
Increasing loss of topsoil and use of pesticides, herbicides.
Increasing economic loss from natural disasters.
Violence & Unrest (National, International which are often linked)
A 2,500% increase in deadly attacks at houses of worship in US since 1999.*
Increasing US Militia groups: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Militia_organizations_in_the_United_States
Increasing tensions and violence in the Middle East.
China’s growing investments in global infrastructure and military spending.
Evolution of war and terrorism.
Increased partnerships between terrorist groups and criminal groups (drug cartels).
Increased support of secessionist groups.
Increased encouragement of religious extremists and political fringe groups.
Increasing capacity and specific actions with the intent to exacerbate social tensions and domestic violence.
Increase in violent hate groups and their advocacy for a race war.
Increasing lengths of conflicts.
Dual use technology (bio, cyber, nuclear, chemical, robotics, conventional …)
Reduction in weapon’s sizes:
Reduction in the difficulty of using weapons.
Accelerating cost of advanced weaponry.
Exponential growth of technological power, affordability, availability, and its often autonomous and anonymous nature.
Enhancement of each of these above due to competition between nations developing and then using AI to protect their national sovereignty…instead of being applied to protect human rights and the environment.
Sustained hostilely toward the United Nations and its goals.
Common use of words in policy making that can have multiple meanings to different political parties, religions, or economic schools of thought.
Civilization’s increasing dependence on cyber technology (when everything is connected, interdependent, and vulnerable. Given our freedom to use it… security is increasingly an illusion.
Evolution of weapons for space.: https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=evolution+of+weapons+for+use+in+space&qpvt=evolution+of+weapons+for+use+in+space&view=detail&mid=1DCE8E8372D3CBFFC3331DCE8E8372D3CBFFC333&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Devolution%2Bof%2Bweapons%2Bfor%2Buse%2Bin%2Bspace%26qpvt%3Devolution%2Bof%2Bweapons%2Bfor%2Buse%2Bin%2Bspace%26FORM%3DVDRE
Increasing space junk: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/space/reference/space-junk/
Evolution of Drone weapons technologies leading inevitably of drone use and escalation of war: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-drones-idUSKBN16S2NM
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Drones+targeting+individuals+with+explosive+charge&view=detail&mid=577B87BB4623107CC38E577B87BB4623107CC38E&FORM=VIRE
Increasing use and evolution of IEDs: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-evolution-of-improvised-explosive-devices-ieds/
Increasing WMD proliferation: https://www.csis.org/topics/defense-and-security/weapons-mass-destruction-proliferation "Science has produced such powerful weapons that in a war between great powers there would be neither victor nor vanquished. Both would be overwhelmed in destruction."John Boyd Orr
Failing of arms control measures: Ukraine use of bomb-lets. Iran and N. Korea nuclear power
Increasing potential for the use of autonomous weapons systems.
Decreasing reliability in weapons being a deterrence to conflict.
Increasing tactical advantage of using weapon systems offensively.
Increasing use of asymmetrical weapons: https://www.nti.org/gsn/article/lethal-asymmetrical-technology-will-be-more-widespread-2030-report/
Decreasing costs of mass murder technologies.
Increasing availability of mass murder technologies.
Increased capacity for engineering genetically targeted bioweapons.
Rise in Cyber threats: Identity theft. Crippling Cyber-attacks. Denial of service…fake news…
CONCLUSION: Given that everything is connected, interdependent and vulnerable…and a global effort is needed. The consequences of any one unsustainable trend could be catastrophic -- and lead to cascading consequences impacting thousands, millions or billions of people.
We need to get started. Failure is not an option. Had the Universal Declaration of Human Rights been enforced after the last World War humanity may have prevented most of the chaos we see today. A 1980 US bi-partisan Presidential Commission concluded the same. Had the world joined together and ended the worst aspects of hunger and poverty by the year 2000. It concluded “that promoting economic development in general, and overcoming hunger in particular, are tasks far more critical to the U.S. national security than most policymakers acknowledge or even believe. Since the advent of nuclear weapons, most Americans have been conditioned to equate national security with the strength of strategic military forces. The Commission considers this prevailing belief to be a simplistic illusion…Military force is ultimately useless in the absence of the global security that only coordinated international progress toward social justice can bring.”
The 17 SDGs may be humanities last chance to apply the wisdom of the ages. Take care of nature, and each other. The Self-evident Truths stated in our nation’s Declaration of Independence were founded on “the Laws of Nature and Nature’s God”. It’s true and just. And in good will, will beneficial all.
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