My 'Top 10 global risks'. With the Stimson Center's top 10 risk is below.
1. Biosecurity threats from nature, accidents,
or intentional use: H5N1, Dengue Fever, a lab accident, another
Novel virus, or a human engineered weapon. Like one targeting a
specific group of people.
2. Cybersecurity threats from nations, political extremists,
criminal groups, or individual criminals: Biology and Cyber threats are virtually identical.
Both will endlessly evolve in nature and via human endeavors that will benefit life or bring cataclysmic harm. And this is now determined by the hearts and minds of humanity. Y2K and
Antibiotic resistance each represent humanities continued short-term thinking
that we and other things are separate and independent of one another. Unpredictable crypto currency fluctuations leading to massive losses of financial savings from people who invested for profit. Expect many other cyber and robotic related harms. Many with inevitable catastrophic consequences simply because humanity lacks any rational globally coordinating governance systems with enforceable cooperation, virtue, and accountably.
3. Lack of logic to grasp our irreversible interdependence and vulgarity needed achieve the wisdom to maximize our freedoms and security. And regardless of how intelligent we or our machines become, this lack of virtue, moral, ethical, political,
religious, or spiritual ideals is increasingly self-evident in the accelerating chaos. And now with the
exponential growth -upon exponential growth - of AI and each nation continues competing
against others to achieve dominance. Thus humanity will not achieve the cooperation and coordination needed to
'control' it. And, yet the wisdom needed has always existed in indigenous cultures and the enlightenment of Thomas Paine in "Common Sense". A universal wisdom briefly described months later in Thomas Jefferson's preamble to the 1776, Declaration of Independence within its “self-evident” “Truths”. Truths that created America with founding principles that remain enshrined within "the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God". Laws mostly ignored in creating the United
States 11 years later enabling the U.S. Constitution to codify laws that ignored humanities need to abide by the golden rule (liberty and
justice for all) and protect nature. And most politicians, citizens, businesses, and the media continue ignoring this and prioritize profit making and the worship of capitalism over the protection of human rights and a sustainable environment. Then powerfully resisting this vital need to adapt to reality and change sufficiently to achieve the 17 Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.
4. This lack of global justice in the Rule of Law is increasing the rise of violent extremists and their violent acts causing large
casualty attacks by lone wolves, extremist
groups, understandably grievanced groups, clandestine government operations, or individuals suffering from mental health
problems like PTS-D, loneliness, delusions of grandeur, racism, or simple anger. The result of our failing governing systems (state, national and global). With affordable access to increasingly powerful, ubiquitous, and affordable multipurpose technologies (vehicles,
chemicals, computers, and hitting soft targets or vital infrastructure.)
5. Global confrontation between China and US or The West vs the rest: Not necessarily sparking an all-out world war but a future of continuous hybrid warfare seeking to weaken every adversary in hopes of achieving their own selfish interests. The strengthening and influencing of the BRICS is cheap and growing while creasing and creating more vulnerabilities in the western world order that has mostly benefited from its dominance while largely ignoring the protection of human rights, and the environment within poorer non-white
nations.
6. Continued evolution of weapons and
war:
Accelerating unprecedented challenges to ensuring human freedom and national security will increasingly require the loss of privacy which will continue to exacerbate political polarization within freedom loving nations and leading to more civil unrest, divisions, and violence.
7. Worsening Climate
extremes: Continuing to
devastate communities, take human lives, cause more environmental problems, and
unmanageable economic debt. It will not be an existential threat to all life or humans. Planet killing asteroids are a possibility but there have been several mass extinctions throughout earth's history. And life always finds a way. Humans are clever. While most may parish, if even a few thousand find a way to survive...they will likely recover, but probably not learn.
8. Genocides
will persist along with other crimes
against humanity and environmental health and sustainability with the assistance of profit prioritizing AI endeavors linked to unregulated capitalism.
9. Decline of more
Democracies: Sliding toward and into Authoritarian governments: As governments persist in defending National
Sovereignty (their delusion of independence) in our irreversibly
interconnected, interdependent, and vulnerable lives of everything earthly.
10. Ungoverned spaces that our current 'civilization' is increasingly dependent upon for communication and coordination. Lawless nations and outers space locations. Plus a few other terrestrial and extraterrestrial threats that we should be more active on. Like banning any experimentation on Mirror Cells on or above earth.
***********
Below are the Stimson Center’s new “Top Ten Global
Risks for 2025” that it has offered for eighth years. It offers “insights into a historic shift in
U.S. global leadership and the implications of an uncertain transition phase
between eras.” https://www.stimson.org/2025/top-ten-global-risks-for-2025/?utm_source=Stimson+Center&utm_campaign=de2df5c4a7-RA%2FComms%2FWeekendRead+Top+Global+Risks+2025&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-de2df5c4a7-46289085
From global debt threatening fragile states, to
concerns over a "Rogue America," 2025's risks paint a stark
picture of challenges ahead. Climate tipping points, a potential
confrontation with Mexico, and a governance gap in advancing Artificial
Intelligence add to the pressing concerns.
Prepare for the future with informed perspectives on the
risks shaping [our current and ]tomorrow’s world. Persistent conflict in Africa, the Middle
East, and Ukraine; rising tensions with Mexico, China, and North Korea; the
consequences of climate change and emerging technologies; and a second Trump
presidency may pose heightened risks this year
By Mathew
Burrows • Robert A. Manning Grand
Strategy 1-13-25 Originally published
in Foreign Policy
2025 risks deeper strife, conflict, and uncertainty in an
unsettled, contested world. Fears of a Rogue America unraveling the very global
order the U.S. created after WW2; growing global—and most troubling—developing
nation debt, worsening already fragile and failing states; trending toward a
climate tipping point; and confrontation with Mexico are among the top things
to worry about in 2025. Some risks from this past year have continued with new
layers of conflict in the Middle East, a downward spiral in U.S.-China
relations, and the dangers of a governance deficit in rapidly advancing
Artificial Intelligence capabilities round out the Top Ten Risks.
Introduction: “Trump
may be one of those figures in history, Henry Kissinger observed in 2018, ”who
comes along from time to time to mark the end of an era and forces it to give
up its pretenses.” This eighth edition of our annual foresight exercise,
Top Ten Global Risks, is drawn from our forecasting experience at the National Intelligence Council.
It comes as both the nation and the world braces for a historic shift in the US global
role at a [growing
trend!!!] moment of grave uncertainty in a contested, turbulent world on
edge. Any assessment of the risks ahead must begin by grasping that the
election portends one of the most disruptive, if not transformational,
presidencies since FDR. Trump appears as much the vessel as the driver for
this authoritarian, ‘burn-it-all-down’ sentiment, suggesting that most of the US public is anxious for
systemic change.
This creates some, and colors all the risks we anticipate.
2025 will be an interregnum between a waning old era, yet with no unifying vision for a new concept of world
order.
We have medium-to-high confidence in all the probabilities
we have assigned to each of the risks, given the “credible” to “high-quality”
level of information that is available.
As it is for intelligence estimates, a “high or medium confidence” judgment still carries the possibility of it
being wrong.
The Risks;
1.
Rogue America: Probability:
The most immediate peril is disruption and chaos as the new
administration seeks to pursue contradictory competing goals (tariffs vs. lower
prices and strong dollar; anti-’globalist ‘America First’, yet stronger global
Primacy, with competing policy entrepreneur factions) at a time when the world
is messier, more complex and dangerous than in Trump’s first term.
Trump may be the first post-American Exceptionalist
President that is not enamored with democratic values. He thrives in a
Hobbesian, transactional, all-against-all world. MAGA disdain of ‘globalism’
portends unilateral economic interventionism to protect the US economy. Yet his
fear of war means military interventions will be limited and reactionary, as in
his first term.
Multilateral institutions such as the World Bank, IMF and UN
along with US regional alliances that have been the pillars of a US-led world
order face a receding US commitment, if not hostility. For the rest of the
world, a stand-offish U.S. under Trump will fuel doubts about the country’s
reliability and interest in extended deterrence along with promoting more
hedging behavior.
Most consequential will be Trump’s economic policies,
centered on promised new tariffs of 10-20% on all trade—and 60% or more on
China—and 25%-100% on Mexican and Canadian exports that risk slowing growth,
price hikes, inflation, and reduced productivity in the US. A cycle of costly
retaliation with Europe, and competitive currency devaluations will increase
the risks to global financial stability, potentially resulting in an all-out
economic war with China. Under Trump, there will likely be an acceleration in
global economic fragmentation and greater protectionist trends that the IMF
says could reduce GDP by 1.6% by 2026.
Yet Trump’s view of himself as a deal-maker could have a
positive side if he seeks to use his coercive bargaining techniques to persuade
China against increased dumping, strike a bargain with Iran that lowers
regional tensions, and encourage more alliance burden-sharing. However, from
North Korea and China to Afghanistan, Trump’s previous efforts do not inspire
confidence this time around.
2.
A Spate of Wicked Problems in the Middle East
- Probability:
The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria wrought is
adding layers of risk on top of the Gaza and Lebanon wars and the Palestinian
dilemma. These include the possibility of a new phase of civil conflict in
Syria, as external powers like Turkey, Israel, the US, Russia, and internal
parties compete to shape a post-Assad Syria; escalating Israel-Iran conflict,
and prospective civil strife in a weakened Iran facing succession of
85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
The Trump Administration may not understand how much the
Middle East is being transformed and that the old tools employed in the first
term—Israeli-Arab normalization and maximalist pressure against Iran—may be
more likely to heighten dangers and conflict than resolve them.
Assad’s demise, enabled by Israeli military success in
severely degrading the capabilities of Iran and its proxies, Hamas and
Hezbollah, allowed Turkish-backed Islamist rebels to swiftly rout the regime.
But even so, Gaza is not pacified, Netanyahu has no clear post-conflict
plan, the ceasefire in Lebanon, is
fragile and Hezbollah not defeated.
With Trump giving the Israelis the green light and the
nomination of Mike Huckabee as ambassador, a strong believer in Israel’s land
claims, the Netanyahu government’s partial or full annexation of the West Bank
may be the next shoe to drop – and with it an end to Saudi-Israeli
normalization and a new set of regional conflicts that the U.S. could be easily
sucked into.
3.
Cascading Clashes in Mexico Probability:
Trump’s team has reportedly been debating whether to invade
and clear out the drug lords. Trump abruptly threatened 25 percent tariffs to
stop the flow of drugs, particularly fentanyl, and seal the southern border.
Mexico’s largest-ever fentanyl bust in December may be a welcome response.
Mexican President Sheinbaum has vowed to retaliate any against tariffs which
Deutsche Bank estimates would raise core US inflation by over one percentage
point—and disrupt a deeply integrated North American car market.
Trump needs Mexico’s help if he wants to deport 11 million
illegal migrants or, as a practical matter, even 1 million. Mexico reportedly
has a plan for receiving deported Mexicans, but Sheinbaum wants to convince
Trump to keep many of them. While it has been stopping Central American
caravans from reaching the border, Mexico temporarily shut down deportations in
2024. A review of the USMCA signed in Trump’s first term is up for 2026 and in
preparation Trump wants to ban Mexican exports produced with Chinese help, such
as EVs.
From possible military clashes, a costly trade war blowing
up the USMCA accord, and the impact of mass deportation, Trump’s declared
agenda could plunge bilateral ties into a full-scale crisis.
That would send Mexico’s already slow growth economy into a
tailspin. Because of its longstanding free trade agreements with the US,
Mexico’s economy has been historically closer to the U.S. than much of Latin
America. Trump’s declared agenda could plunge bilateral ties into a full-scale
crisis for Mexico, with already booming Mexico-China trade and investment,
tipping the balance toward China.
4.
A Bad Deal or Walkaway in Ukraine Probability:
Trump is intent on ending the Ukraine war and blaming Biden
for allowing it to happen. The new President wants to decrease European
dependence on the US for its security and stopping the Ukraine war would be a
first step. There is growing Republican opposition against any more assistance
for Ukraine, which is helping to bring Zelenskyy to the table. With Ukrainian
losses increasing, Kyiv appears—without openly admitting it—desperate for a
ceasefire, but Trump may allow Putin to tip the scales.
Trump will face domestic and allied opposition if he presses
Ukraine too hard for territorial concessions while squashing Zelensky’s demand
for NATO membership, offering instead bilateral security guarantees. Putin will
want assurances against substantial NATO defense assistance for a neutral
Ukraine. Putin reportedly is making any ceasefire conditional on wider talks on
European security arrangements and may want some sanctions eased and restored
access to Western financial markets to improve Russia’s gloomy economic
outlook.
The New START treaty expires in 2026 and both sides have an
interest in avoiding an arms race. The recent US decision to deploy missiles in
Germany may be a worry, and Moscow may want to revive the INF treaty.
Negotiations with Trump offer Putin the best opportunity for establishing
limits on the US’s involvement in European security. The twin dangers are Trump
pressing Ukraine into a Putin-shaped deal or Trump walking away when there is
no early agreement and declaring it Europe’s problem. Trump already reportedly
told European leaders during his recent visit that they would have to shoulder
most of the burden of supporting Kyiv during the implementation of any
ceasefire. Trump’s failure to deliver a
ceasefire agreement might result in further Russian gains, eroding Ukraine’s
ability to function as a sovereign nation and putting pressure on Europe to
defend itself without US help.
5.
China Strikes Back: Probability:
Tension looms between China Hawks and business-centered
advisors in the cabinet appealing to Trump’s penchant for deal-making. There
was continuity from Trump to Biden in defining China as a strategic competitor
seeking to displace US influence.
But as his policy architects argued, Biden sought to create
a framework to manage competitive coexistence—a “steady state”—balancing and
constraining Beijing, while creating guardrails to avoid conflict. Thus, Biden
maintained and expanded tariffs, tightened tech and investment restrictions,
imposed sanctions, and strengthened US deterrence in the Asia-Pacific, but also
bolstered risk-reduction mechanisms such as military to military talks.
Trump and many of his advisors, plus Congressional
Republicans, criticize Biden for trying to manage competition; they view the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as an existential threat and define an endgame
not of coexistence, but ‘victory,’ where the CCP, which pending Congressional
bills seek to sanction, is somehow replaced by a friendlier regime.
The plan, such as it is, is to put maximum pressure on China
as a way to weaken it in all spheres, beefing up US military posture in Asia
and more aggressively responding to Chinese coercion on Taiwan and the South
China Sea. This will deepen the action-reaction spiral. The impending shift
would be from derisking to decoupling, trying to fully disentangle the US from
China’s economy. Pending legislation in the House and Senate seeks to remove
normal trade status from China. This would hit the prices of imports and ripple
across global supply chains using Chinese components.
But, Beijing, less dependent on the US market than in
Trump’s first term, has prepared for retaliation. This could include counter-tariffs, currency
devaluation, and banning exports of rare earth minerals on which US defense
equipment, EVs, and AI chips depend—which Xi did recently in an unexpectedly
strong response to Biden’s final AI chip equipment ban.
Moreover, Trump may impose additional tariffs on nations
like Mexico, Vietnam, and India – whose US exports have skyrocketed as US
investors have moved production there using Chinese components. The projected
setback to both economies from an all-out economic war might, after much Sturm
und Drang, yield a deal.
6.
North Korean Aggression Probability:
It was a portent of the coming world war when, in 1935,
Mussolini and Hitler sent military aid and troops to aid fascists in the
Spanish Civil War. Kim Jong Un sent 10,000 troops to Ukraine was a worrying
echo of the Fascist move.
The burgeoning Eurasian entente is one of several strategic
shifts unfolding since the failed Trump-Kim 2019 Hanoi Summit that has resulted
in a predicament more dangerous than at any time since 1950. Kim has undermined
core assumptions of US and South Korean nuclear diplomacy over the past 30
years: the twin goals of denuclearization and North-South Korean
reconciliation.
Kim discarded a long-standing priority of normalizing US
ties after the Hanoi failure and embarked on a break-neck, multi-year, major
nuclear and missile buildup including solid-fuel ICBMs, multiple warhead
missiles, tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles. Along with Kim’s
emphatic statements that Pyongyang will not give up its nukes (now embodied in
North Korea’s constitution and pre-emptive nuclear doctrine) and his defense
pact with Moscow, this has emboldened Kim and altered the strategic balance on
the Korean Peninsula. In addition, last January, Kim abandoned a 70-year-old
policy of reunification, what both North and South Korea defined as a divided
family, and declared South Korea an “enemy state,” changing the constitution.
Donald Trump says Kim “misses him,” and may try to rekindle
Trump-Kim negotiations, but Kim, if interested at all, will only discuss arms
control, not denuclearization, a problematic agenda.
If Ukraine escalates or if China attacks Taiwan and US
troops intervene in either conflict, as wargames suggest, Kim may see the
diversion of US focus and resources as an opportunity to attack South Korea,
risking a two-front war with nuclear powers. The immediate risk is of
escalatory North-South military confrontation, over their disputed maritime
border.
7.
Climate Tipping Point Probability:
The world is approaching a climate tipping point, where
change may become irreversible. Limiting temperature increases to 1.5C above
pre-industrial levels and “well below 2C“ is the goal of the Paris Accord. Yet,
2024 was the hottest year on record, with temperatures rising over 1.5C
degrees, after a decade of the warmest weather on record, and more frequent and
extreme weather.
To meet Paris climate targets, global emissions would need
to be reduced 43% by 2030 to reach net zero by 2050, requiring a transformation
of global energy systems. At present, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
have reached record levels, projected to be 41.6 billion tons of CO2 in 2024.
Though renewable energy is growing at exponential rates – 415% since 2000, it
still produces only 13% of total world energy, which the International Energy
Agency (IEA) forecasts to grow to 20% by 2030. Fossil fuels—oil gas,
coal—account for about 82%of world energy production and are flat, not
significantly declining.
This paradox of sustained fossil fuel use amid soaring
renewable investment—two-thirds of some $3 trillion in global energy investment
in 2024—is epitomized by China, which accounts for 40% of the world’s deployed
renewable energy and 60% of the world’s EVs, yet has built 1000 new coal plants
since 2000. By 2050, when Paris Accord adherents pledge zero net GHG emissions,
fossil fuels are projected to be in use, though reduced by 50%.
This helps explain why efforts at the UN climate meeting,
known as COP29 to agree on a timeline to phase out fossil fuels failed. Six
nations (China, US, EU, India, Russia, and Brazil) account for nearly
two-thirds of GHG emissions – and deciding how to divide current and historical
responsibilities is a thorny diplomatic problem.
Trends suggest deepening risk: Trump will promote fossil
fuels and rollback US climate commitments, and new energy demands from AI data
centers and cryptocurrencies increase the damage.
8.
A Lost Decade for the World’s Poorest Probability:
Around 3.3 billion people live in nations that spend more on
debt than on health and education.
Growing deficits and debt are a global problem. The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor
has warned that global public debt will likely exceed $100 trillion, or about
93 percent of global gross domestic product by the end of 2024, which is 10
percentage points of GDP above 2019 .
Even before the pandemic, least developed countries debt
(LDCs) ] was growing: between 2009 and 2019, the median debt-to-GDP ratio rose
from 30.8% to 41.6%. The pandemic worsened the situation, with debt ratios
consistently exceeding 50% after 2020. In 2023, many LDCs’ debt-to-GDP ratio
were higher than other developing countries for the first time, despite LDCs’
lower repayment capacity. There are fears that higher Western interest rates or
devastating climate change-related disasters could worsen the outlook.
There is a tragic irony in the fact that the most
climate-vulnerable poor countries are already “spending more than twice as much
to service their debts as they receive to fight the climate crisis.” Official
Development Assistance (ODA) by rich states is declining, and the Baku COP29
Summit agreement to boost assistance for poor countries won’t do much to
help.
As the LDC outlook worsens, the number of active state-based
armed conflicts has reached the highest level ever recorded by the Uppsala
Conflict Data Program with gang violence also at a historically high. Rich
countries delude themselves in thinking the conflicts won’t spill over and
affect their futures.
9.
Are Pakistan and Nigeria Too Big to Fail? Probability:
Pivotal middle powers, such as Nigeria and Pakistan are
suffering the plight of the poorer developing states. If stabilized, they could
be critical anchors, if they fail, they will be hubs of instability.
Former Nigerian President Obasanjo labeled his country a
“failing state” recently, citing leadership failure and such underlying
problems as youth restiveness, discord and divisions, corruption and conflict.
To the north, the Sahel is mired in multiple conflicts that Nigeria’s Boko
Haram has helped to fuel.
Currently the sixth largest state, with 224 million people,
and slated to be the third largest in 2050, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio has
grown to 55%, above the LDC average thanks to heavy domestic borrowing and
currency depreciation.
Nuclear-armed Pakistan, the world’s 5th largest state, is
tittering on the precipice becoming the world’s first failed nuclear power. It
has received 23 IMF bailouts in the roughly 75 years since its creation. Its
debt has soared since 2007, fostering a “consumption-focused imported-addicted
economy,” according to Tabadlab, a think-tank in Islamabad. Pakistan’s tepid
growth cannot create enough jobs for the under-30-year-old youth, which
constitute half of the country’s population. A majority of working age women
don’t work, crippling Pakistan’s economic potential. There’s a political crisis
over jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan that recently sparked riots in
Islamabad, along with a wave of militant attacks earlier this year in the
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan.
10: AI/Tech
Governance Deficit Probability:
The fear of AI dominating humans rather than vice-versa, is
growing. Large Language models of generative AI are rapidly improving their
capacity, and some predict breakthroughs in super-intelligence, Artificial
General Intelligence (AGI), by 2030. A Musk-backed push on frontier AGI could
be dangerous.
Yet financial analysts worry that the $1 trillion in AI
investment is lacking in commercial applications. How will Trump’s best buddy,
Elon Musk, whose PAC gave $200 million to Trump and the tech lobby, impact
still uncertain norms and regulations for AI and other emerging tech? There are
neither national nor global standards for AI, though there are over 120 bills
pending in Congress and 45 states have pending AI legislation.
To offset legislative dysfunction, the Biden administration
sought to create standards and a regulatory framework for “safe and trustworthy
AI” by executive order in 2023, followed by a memorandum last October to align
AI with national security goals. Biden put the National Institute for Standards
and Technology (NIST) at the center of public-private partnership efforts to
realize AI goals
Trump may undo this strategy as Elon Musk’s program of
budget cuts and streamlined government puts his stamp on the tech sector. Trump
has already vowed to cancel Biden’s AI executive order.
It’s unclear how government scientists and engineers be
impacted by planned changes to the civil service. The EU and China have
launched their own separate regulations. Trump is unlikely to harmonize
standards and regulations with global partners or competitors; the future may
be a race to the bottom – or there may be as yet undreamt-of possibilities.
