A Logic for the Future (printed 3 months before Trump was elected)

 

FYI:  This report “A LOGIC FOR THE FUTURE” was released before we knew Trump would be our next president.  Don’t count on him improving things before things get a lot worse.

https://www.rbf.org/sites/default/files/2024-09/A%20Logic%20for%20the%20Future_Sep24.pdf

A LOGIC FOR THE FUTURE: International Relations in the Age of Turbulence: Report By STEPHEN HEINTZ, PRESIDENT & CEO OF THE ROCKEFELLER BROTHERS FUND  Sept 2024

“Stephen Heintz has written the best explanation I’ve seen of the depth of the crisis the world faces and of why and how the United States must become the ‘indispensable partner’ in the reshaping of a more balanced global order.” ROGER COHEN, NEW YORK TIMES

“Heintz’s report provides concrete and visionary suggestions on how to make the rules-based global order more suitable for the challenges of the 21st century.” HENRY ALT-HAAKER, PRESIDENT, THE ROBERT BOSCH STIFTUNG, GERMANY

“Heintz has provided a timely and indispensable guide to how to rethink international relations as the foundation for a new world order. This is a must-read for scholars and policy-makers and all those concerned with the direction of the world order.” VALI NASR, MAJID KHADDURI PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AND MIDDLE EAST STUDIES AT JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSIT

Pg 1  INTRODUCTION:  What distinguishes this period in human history is the confluence of forces —political, geo-strategic, economic, social, technological, and environmental, as well as interactions among them—that fuel the turbulence that we see today

“We are free to change the world and start something new in it.” HANNAH ARENDT, GERMAN-AMERICAN HISTORIAN AND PHILOSOPHER

Pg 5  “In 1980, the management theorist and consultant Peter Drucker authored a book called Managing in Turbulent Times. Drucker’s central thesis was that the greatest danger in times of turbulence is not turbulence itself; rather, it is “acting with yesterday’s logic.” This fairly describes our current predicament. Though we are faced with multiple, diverse, complex, and possibly even existential challenges, we stubbornly continue to respond with yesterday’s logic and the institutional framework it inspired. The logic of the present remains rooted in the logic of the past, with many of its core elements originating from the first known international treaties in Mesopotamia or those between warring Greek city-states. Many others were first articulated and codified in 17–19th century Europe; for example, the 1648 Peace of Westphalia is widely regarded as the international legal framework that birthed the enduring concept of nation-state sovereignty which, three centuries later, was enshrined in the United Nations Charter. Over time, our legacy systems have grown from these and other roots to become the international institutions of the present day. The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not turbulence itself; rather, it is “acting with yesterday’s logic.

Pg 40 CONCLUSION The decades ahead will bring change, uncertainty, and peril in global affairs, especially if humanity and its leaders fail to adapt. Populations around the globe are suffering from the increasingly destructive and deadly effects of climate change, which in turn fuel unprecedented levels of mass migration, social upheaval, and competition for resources. Once again, wars rage in Europe and the Middle East, while China acts on its increasingly expansive power aspirations, triggering new global tensions. Early signs suggest that AI could either save humanity or doom it. Norms of social trust are in decline, the truth is elusive, and political polarization impedes dialogue, compromise, and progress toward solutions.

All of these trends—environmental, demographic, geostrategic, technological, political, and institutional—represent grave challenges for old assumptions and existing frameworks. The international system is under stress and in flux. The old order is dying, and a new order is demanding to be born. Indeed, this inescapable need for renewal creates an opportunity for inspiration and invention. We are in a period of elasticity, a time when there is greater capacity for stretch in our conceptions of global relations and thinking about the international system. We must act now to guide the global community toward a more peaceful, equitable, and sustainable future.

Our legacy must not be one of inattention to the rising tides of crisis. Our children deserve to inherit a world structured with a logic that is relevant to their futures. The world itself deserves a logical framework that builds on the history of human progress yet recognizes and eliminates inherent flaws and anachronisms so that we may effectively confront the challenges ahead. We and our planet deserve a sustainable future.

No one can approach this task without understanding why our world has clung to the old order. Beneficiaries of the status quo have every immediate incentive to undermine progress. Competing national interests and aspirations impede transformative thinking, and domestic politics constrain even those states that see the need for, and wish to participate in, the renewal efforts. Economic competition overrides political cooperation. And structural flaws, like those embedded in the U.N. Charter, pose formidable barriers to reform.

In spite of such hurdles, the U.N. Summit of the Future, which will convene in New York in September 2024, offers a unique opportunity to shape the logic of multipolar pluralism, an ethos of caring for all life and equitably sharing the finite resources of our planet. Global civil society must mobilize to shape the Summit agenda and participate in debates before, during, and after the meeting. The Summit of the Future must be the starting point of an ongoing process, not a talkfest with limited impact. We must construct a new global framework—a new logic, a new ethos, and a new institutional ecosystem—to ensure that the age of turbulence does not become the age of catastrophe.