Monday, May 28, 2018

100 Anniversary of chaos...prevention needed more than ever


This year marks the 100 year anniversary of both World War I and the Spanish Flu.  Most Americans don’t know that more US soldiers died of the Spanish flu than that the war itself.  There is strong evidence that the war exacerbated the spread of the killer virus that ultimately killed more US citizens at home than all the Americans (Soldiers and civilians) that died in the second world.  
Every virologist knows it is not a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when’ a comparable flu pandemic will occur.  Uncontested studies by DOD, CIA, CDC and National Academy of Sciences have all agreed that ‘new and re-emerging infectious disease’ are a fundamental national security threat to our nation.   Yet we remain lethally unprepared.  Worse yet, few Americans (public and policy makers alike) consider this and other non-military threats as worthy national security issues.  But global warming is increasingly exacerbating the infectious disease threats as well as contributing to failed states and the spread of terrorism and the proliferation of WMD.
We seriously need to re-consider redefining the phrase “national security”.   Again, because we failed to do so after a 1980 bipartisan Presidential Commission clearly warned us about the preventable security threats unrelated to invading armies or ICBMs.
That 1980 commission specifically warned about the future consequences if we ignored the global injustice of poverty related hunger - stating “The most potentially explosive force in the world today is the frustrated desire of poor people to attain a decent standard of living. The anger, despair and often hatred that result represent real and persistent threats to international order…  Neither the cost to national security of allowing malnutrition to spread nor the gain to be derived by a genuine effort to resolve the problem can be predicted or measured in any precise, mathematical way. Nor can monetary value be placed on avoiding the chaos that will ensue unless the United States and the rest of the world begin to develop a common institutional framework for meeting such other critical global threats as the growing scarcity of fossil fuels and other non-renewable resources, environmental hazards, pollution of the seas, and international terrorism. Calculable or not, however, this combination of problems now threatens the national security of all countries just as surely as advancing armies or nuclear arsenals.”

The commission also stated “that promoting economic development in general, and overcoming hunger in particular, are tasks far more critical to the U.S. national security than most policymakers acknowledge or even believe. Since the advent of nuclear weapons most Americans have been conditioned to equate national security with the strength of strategic military forces. The Commission considers this prevailing belief to be a simplistic illusion. Armed might represents merely the physical aspect of national security. Military force is ultimately useless in the absence of the global security that only coordinated international progress toward social justice can bring.”

Six months ago a comprehensive report (Winning the Peace: Hunger and Instability) was released by the World Food Program USA that combined data from dozens of previous studies that repeatedly documented the connection between food insecurity globally, global instability, and US national security.  Other studies link other issues like global warming to the spread of infectious diseases and terrorism.  A recent CDC report found that over the last 12 years three times the number of Americans have been infected by insect borne diseases --  arguably linked to climate change.  Meanwhile real world events and DOD studies link growing global instability and other related US national security threats to climate change and raising sea levels.  It was the longest drought in Syrian modern history that pushed hungry farmers into Syrian cities where peaceful protests led to a brutal government response and eventually a civil war.  The consequences expanding in the region and even exacerbating tensions between superpowers.
The lethal linkages between various issues is indisputable.   Words often repeated by respectable agency or institutional spokespeople offering solutions is ‘the need for’ a “comprehensive”, “wholistic”, or “whole of government approach” approach.  These words are followed by the plea for our need to build “resilience”.  This last word acknowledges what we are doing will probably fail.   Our government’s worsening political dysfunction is no secret.  It is fundamentally designed not to work fast.  But now, it is now not working at all.  And its persistent failings to invest adequate resources in preventing problems, instead primarily responding to them cannot be sustained economically.   Many economists and national security experts believe that our nation’s debt burden itself is a greater threat to our “national security” than any foreign enemy. 
Our “government disfunction” should not be underestimated.  Even before Trump’s election a survey of US national security experts identified it as our nation’s second greatest threat.  Just ahead of Iran, N. Korea, China, Russia and climate change.  Terrorism was number one.   Today that survey might produce a different result.  But, given the trajectory of threats, their interconnectedness and the decline in our political atmosphere and national leadership, ‘dysfunction’ could become number one. 
The wisdom and economic value of prevention is obvious.  But worthwhile investments in prevention of are sometimes best made beyond our shores.   According to a 1997 GAO report an investment of just $32 million US tax dollars into the global eradication of Smallpox saved US tax payers over $17 billion since its global eradication in 1971.  Back then Americans were spending $150 million annually vaccinating US children against the disease while it had been largely eliminated from the US for decades.  The eradication of Polio was targeted for the year 2000 but because of wars and violent extremism abroad polio remains a threat with hundreds of millions of dollars being spent domestically each year while the virus remains sparsely in only two war torn countries abroad.
Fortunately, there is one campaign focused on comprehensively preventing most threats. It is a set of 17 Sustainable Development goals the world has already agreed to meet by the year 2030.  The problem, is finding the two trillion dollars needed annually to achieve them.   It’s self-evident funding will not be coming from taxpayers’ pockets.  But if nations agree to freeze and then seize a fraction of the estimated $32 trillion sitting in off shore bank accounts stashed there by drug lords hiding illegal gains, wealthy entities avoiding taxes, and kleptocrats who stole billions from their own nations then miracles could be achieved.
Our real national security demands that we put the protection of human rights at the top of our priority list.  The SDGs could achieve what the Universal Declaration of Human Rights intended.  The cost savings from this wise investment would more than pay for itself as the eradication of Smallpox once did.  Failng this, there is not enough money in the world to save us from the chaotic and lethal global forces that continue to drain our personal, state and national budgets.  Things change.  Our priorities must too.


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