The individual sovereignty vs communal life?

George Will, one of my favorite pundits, has a way with words, phrases, and perspectives that is always informative and enlightening. His latest “The Common Enemy of the left and the right” posted the day after Christmas, may reflect a different perspective than he intended. 

Mr. Will referred to Michael “Oakesbott’s formulation” 60 years ago as “Modernity’s greatest achievement” and “the prerequisite for its subsequent achievements ... the invention of the individual.”  In light of Covid and today’s modern threats like Climate Change, the concept of “individual” is lethal.  Oakesbott believed this trend emerged in the 14^th and 15^th centuries and gave rise to “a very high degree of human individuality”, leading to “person’s accustomed to making choices for themselves”.  

Before then, Will states, “Persons knew themselves only as members of a family, a group, a church, a village or as the occupant of a tenancy.” Will believes this was “The invention of the individual” and “the idea of private – a zone of personal sovereignty independent of communal arrangements.”  These led to “the American Revolution.” That a “Government exists to protect the individual’s right to the pursuit of happiness as the individual defines it, not the pursuit of the good life as government defines it.” Will then justifies that “Government must be powerful enough to protect” the individual’s “security of person and property – but not powerful enough to threaten individuality.” 

From a biological perspective...assuming we are all still biological in nature, the origin and evolution of individualism started much earlier.  Primates likely began to see themselves as individuals seeing their reflections in the water thus gaining some level of consciousness of their separateness and self-identity.   Hence, primates began seeing differences within their tribe and recognizing greater differences in individuals outside of it.   Any extremely individualistic behavior then would have died without passing on their genes.   It was much safer in the short run to stay within one’s tribe.  But every species biological quest is to survive.  And to do that, genetic diversity is the key.   Perpetuating diversity, in the long run, is most important in a forever-changing environment and an accelerating diversity of species.  Thus, venturing outside our territory or tribe is hardwired into our DNA.  And, in the long run enhancing genetic diversity is the greatest strength of all higher life forms.  (Note to all white supremacists...get over your tribe and lack of individuality).  Diversity is vital to warding off every higher life form’s greatest threat – microorganisms. 

The human mind’s invention of words and concepts that pundits like George Will love and use so much. like “individualism”, “freedom”, and “independence” are simple mental constructs.  Inventions that violate “the Laws of Nature and Nature’s God”.   These 3 words specifically threaten every political division within the US and all those beyond our species' natural and human-drawn borders.  

And, pathogens simply don’t care about your individuality, tribe, or view of human history over the last 2000 years.  All they want is your warm body and the freedom you love that assists them in infecting all those you believe you are independent from.   

Fundamental principle.  Things change.  Maybe we, and our governments should change to reflect this reality.   We should start with drafting a new Constitution that reflects those fundamental principles so clearly stated over 200 years ago in our Declaration of Independence.  

These are the times that try our souls.

 “These are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman.”

These are the first lines in The American Crisis, a pamphlet released on December 19, 1776.   A time when the American rebellion was uncertain.  Five months earlier the Second Continental Congress had adopted the Declaration of Independence.  A profound document that Abraham Lincoln later called our “Apple of Gold”.   A precious apple that he believed was framed with our constitution of ‘Silver’.    It’s unfortunate that patriots today, worship and swear an oath to protect the silver frame instead of the "Apple of Gold”.  

The Declaration wasn’t perfect.  It certainly didn’t result in forming a more perfect union.  The Constitution that frames the Declaration has yet to achieve any of the six intentions clearly stated in the Constitution’s Preamble.  

There are two editing changes that Thomas Jefferson could have used that may have resulted in far better outcomes today.   The first would have been replacing the word ‘Independence’ with the word ‘separation’ in its title.  ‘Separation’ is a word that is congruent with the most profound words in this document’s first paragraph “the Laws of Nature and Nature’s God”.  Independence is an illusion.  It is a flawed mental construct that exists nowhere in the known universe.  The word “separation” was infinitely more accurate.  But the “Declaration of Political Separation” would have been too wordy - if entirely accurate.   

Note the implications today with independent state regulations regarding public health, economic, transportation, trade, environment, communications, and other elements essential to securing our nation’s vital infrastructures.   As the current director of the newest US Federal agency (CISA -Cyber and Infrastructure Security Agency) recently quoted “Everything is connected.  Everything is interdependent.  Everything is vulnerable”.    She could have added,   “and Everything Changes - except the 'Laws of Nature and Nature’s God'". 

Covid19 variants are teaching us one of these fundamental law sets.  Yet we refuse to change our frame of to better reflect our Apple of Gold.  And now, with our nation so extremely polarized that many believe we are on the verge of another civil war - and most people believing the polarization is only going to get worse without some heavenly intervention or evidence of a planet-killing asteroid, we are not going to change that flawed frame.

The second edit that may have improved our current national and global situation was suggested by Dr. Benjamin Rush, a friend of Thomas Jefferson and a signer of the Declaration.  Rush suggested he change the word “Happiness” to “Health”.   Happiness is about feeling good.  Health is about prevention so you can really feel good sustainably.    

The increasing threats to our lives, our nation, and our world today (from the pandemic to climate change, to inflation, to fears of war) are linked to the supremacy of state sovereignty (independence) over our God-given inalienable human rights.  Rights listed in a Universal Declaration.  Another document celebrated each year on Dec. 10^th  when it was unanimously globally approved.

Our nation’s founders explained why it was necessary “​​to dissolve the political bands” which had connected them to Great Britain. Then they proposed a government to be organized according to the principles of natural law.  A “self-evident” concept “that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights”.   And as Thomas Paine wrote earlier in his pamphlet “Common Sense” the only legitimate role of government is to protect people's “freedom and security”.  The British monarchy wasn’t based on either.   

Unfortunately, the British troops moved on General George Washington and his troops in New York City.  By November the Redcoats had pushed the colonials into New Jersey. Then chased them across the Delaware River into Pennsylvania. 

By mid-December Washington’s 5000 man army was demoralized but still able to fight.  That had something to do with Washington insisting that all of his soldiers were inoculated against smallpox.  Exhausted, dirty, and without resources, much of what also sustained them was Paine’s words “Let it be told to the future world, that in the depth of winter when nothing but hope and virtue could survive, that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet and to repulse it.”

In mid-December General William Howe, the British commander, sent most of his soldiers back to New York to spend the winter.  He left some garrisons across the river in New Jersey to guard against any Washington advance. 

On Christmas night, with intel that the NJ Trenton garrison was manned only by exhausted and unprepared Hessian auxiliaries, Washington crossed the icy Delaware River in a winter storm with about 2400 men. They marched nine miles underdressed, cold, and in freezing rain to surprise the outnumbered Hessians, who fought briefly before surrendering. 

Now with confidence in their cause, soldiers reenlisted.  In early January, they surprised the British at Princeton, New Jersey. The British abandoned their posts in central New Jersey, and by March, the Continental Congress moved back to Philadelphia. Historians believe the battles of Trenton and Princeton saved the Revolution.

There’s no proof that any of Washington's troops had read The American Crisis before they marched on Trenton.  But there is little doubt they heard it one way or another, as well as many wavering loyalists.  Paine had written “Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered” “yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives everything its value.”

I don’t believe Americans today are up for overcoming the losses of things we hold dear.  We value wealth over health.  Selfishness over oneness.  Individualism over union.  And political parties over fundamental principles.

Our digitized national archives of over 120,000 personal communications between our founding fathers back then mentioned the word “virtue” 6000 times.  More times than the word “freedom”.   No one can sincerely argue that we are a nation of virtue.  We persistently abuse our freedoms.  And we've never altered our Constitution sufficiently to reflect the principles in our Apple of Gold.

The only truths that we can hold to be self-evident today?  We deserve the consequences that we are now experiencing.  From Covid19 to climate change.  From a flailing democracy to a debt and inflation burdened economy.  From our crumbling infrastructure to an all-time low in our trust in science, our institutions, our leaders, and the media.

In 1965 Paul Harvey aired “Freedom to Chains” regarding the failure of governments.  He said “One of the cruelest paradoxes of history is this: because each was a good government it bore bountiful fruit. When it bore bountiful fruit, the people got fat.  And when they got fat they got lazy.  And when they got lazy, they started to absolve themselves of personal responsibility and to turn over to government to do for them, things which traditional they had been doing for themselves. At first, there appears to be nothing wrong in asking government to perform some extra service for you, but if you ask government for extra service, government in order to perform its increasing function it has to get bigger.  And if government gets bigger, in order to support its increasing size, it has to what?  Tax the individual more. So the individual gets less.  And to get more taxes the government increases the number of tax collectors.....until the government is all-powerful.”

What Paul Harvey didn’t say was how the construct of national sovereignty back then drove every government to increase its power to protect its own national interests.  Interests that were almost always selfish and harmful to others.  Other people, other nations, and everyone’s environment.    And this suffering, injustices, and threats of war drove unsustainable spending and grievances.   Because no nation, no government, and no culture had a majority that practiced or insisted on virtuous universal behaviors.  

There is not enough money in the world or any government in the world that can protect its citizen's freedoms and security in this lawless, unjust, selfish, ignorant, and short-sighted world. And that is why the Laws of Nature and Nature’s God will continue to deliver us our well-deserved consequences.  It’s unfortunate that our children will end up paying the ultimate price for this unsustainable form of global development.

There is one alternative.  Achieving the UNs 17 Sustainable Development Goals in the context of planetary health.  But planetary health for all will only be possible in a world where human behavior is based on the reality of interdependence. 

May you have a healthy Omicron Holiday Season.

Cpw

 

FYI:  This rant was inspired by Heather Cox Richardson’s Dec 19^th “Letters from an American” blog.  Simply because it required me to pay for a subscription before I could comment on it.  My comment would have been much shorter.  Plagiarizing some and editing much of what she wrote and then inserting my comments is the long rant you just read.   If you took the time, Thank you!

 

The Threats we face. We simply don't comprehend.

 "Human behavior is the greatest threat to human existence" Dr. Monty G. Marshall.  The Center for Systemic Peace 

"It is not famine, not earthquakes, not microbes, not cancer but man himself who is man's greatest danger to man, for the simple reason that there is no adequate protection against psychic epidemics, which are infinitely more devastating than the worst of natural catastrophes" - Carl Jung

The sides involved in a psychic epidemic may exhibit some or all of the following characteristics:

Polarized or split between seemingly irreconcilable differences.

Emotional judgments and distorted reasoning.

Very selective and one-sided presentation of facts (if presented at all).

Focused intensely on particular individuals.

Expressed in extremes, associating good with one person/group and evil with another.

Having witnessed the destruction and horror of World War II, Jung had much to say about what he termed “psychic epidemics.” Several times throughout The Collected Works, he stressed that such “mass psychoses” are the main threat facing humanity today. “The gods have become disease,” Jung famously wrote.

https://intelligence.weforum.org/topics/a1Gb0000000pTDXEA2?tab=publications 

In military terms a “threat” requires both capability and intent.  

"We need more understanding of human nature, because the only real danger that exists is man himself. He is the great danger. And we are pitifully unaware of it. We know nothing of man ... far too little. His psyche should be studied -- because we are the origin of all coming evil." - C.G. Jung

National Security must be Rational Security: 

David Attenborough urges world leaders to confront climate catastrophe (nbcnews.com)

"The life of the nation is secure only while the nation is honest, truthful, and virtuous."  -- Frederick Douglass  [Frederick Baily] (1818-1895), escaped slave, Abolitionist, author, editor of the North Star and later the New National Era

“Whether it is to be Utopia or Oblivion will be a touch-and-go relay race right up the final moment….Humanity is in ‘Final exam’ as to whether or not it qualifies for continuance in Universe” Buckminster Fuller. 

“The world is a dangerous place, Not because the people who are evil, but because of the people who don’t do anything about it.” Albert Einstein.

The things that will destroy us are: politics without principle; pleasure without conscience; wealth without work; knowledge without character; business without morality; science without humanity; and worship without sacrifice.  –  Mahatma Gandhi

"The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life." - Theodore Roosevelt (1858-1919) 26th president of the U.S. 

"There will be no Homeland Security until we realize that the entire planet is our homeland.  Every sentient being in the world must feel secure."  - John Perkins

Connect the dots. See the web. Justice for all! Or prepare for the consequences.  We live in an era of increasing interconnected and interdependent problems and an accelerating list of existential threats. Yet we appear to be in full denial regarding the increasing WMD capacity for people, groups or nations to commit mass murder or genocide or respond to pathogens that do not recognize borders, political parties, or nationalities.  

Grasping this reality it is easy to see why Martin Luther King Jr. said ‘we will either learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools’. cw     

Defining National security threats:  Harold Brown, U.S. Secretary of Defense from 1977 to 1981 in the Carter administration, enlarged the definition of national security by including elements such as economic and environmental security:

"National security then is the ability to preserve the nation's physical integrity and territory; to maintain its economic relations with the rest of the world on reasonable terms; to preserve its nature, institution, and governance from disruption from outside; and to control its borders."

Harvard University history professor Charles Maier's definition of 1990, national security is defined through the lens of national power:[7]

"National security... is best described as a capacity to control those domestic and foreign conditions that the public opinion of a given community believes necessary to enjoy its own self-determination or autonomy, prosperity and wellbeing."

The US military uses four basic principles in dealing with threats.  First is early detection.  Second is rapid response.  Third is Research and development to provide the right tools for response.  And last, prevention!  Public health professionals use the same basic strategy but with far fewer resources.

Most major threats we face today have NO workable solution within the context of national sovereignty, an undemocratic UN, and unenforceable international law.  Terrorism, Syria, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, climate change, pandemics, China’s or Russia’s territorial aggression, Israel/Palestine, or other Middle East conflicts.   A U.S. President is forced to choose between two basic options.  Do nothing and watch things get worse.  Or do something and potentially make it worse.   There is however, a fundamental choice to be made that is rarely talked about in the media or on Capital Hill. We can either continue down the current path where 'might makes right’ - the law of force''which leads to an accelerating devolution into chaos, Armageddon, AI taking over -- or, attempt a higher path in our planetary evolution in the direction of 'the rule of law" or religious salvation.    Given the track record of the world religions...I'm committed to the former.  

Wood Allen once said. "humanity stands at a crossroad. One road leads to utter hopelessness and despair. The other-- to complete annihilation." He hoped we had "the wisdom to choose the right path".  It appears we lack it.  It is possible that AI will gain wisdom first.  It is possible, but not likely, that it will decide to keep humanity around with some system of enforced accountability in obeying ‘the Laws of Nature and Nature’s God”  We will still be free to do anything we want. But there will always be consequences. 

Estimating the timing and severity of threats to the US and humanity from accidents, disasters, or deliberate attacks is difficult. Most people avoid thinking about these things for a variety of reasons.  Threats can be listed and generally categorized.  Relatively accurate predictive analysis is sometimes possible with some threats. Pandemics will happen. But with other threats predictions will be virtually impossible. Like a nuclear war.  Many threat consequences can vary widely in geography, economics or lethal severity. And actual or assumed effects can be perceived differently given the low public awareness of most threats.  

Given this reality of our ignorance of perceived threats and how this influences the choices we make regarding actions plans, investments, or things to avoid, there appears to be a vast need for a public awareness campaign IF the intent is to bring both citizens and policymakers up to speed.

Given our limited financial resources on the family, local, state, federal and global levels we must choose wisely when selecting responses to real or perceived threats. Some low-cost actions could have a significant effect in preventing some threats.  Or, enabling a stronger (or more rapid) response to other threats. Some actions may actually increase the risk of threat.  Thus we face a trade-off of freedom to choose which action to take - and the inevitable consequences of taking (or not taking) a specific action.  We must understand the scope of threats to make the wisest choices. 

One source to consider in threat assessment:  RISK Assessments: RAND Corp.  “Comparing Homeland Security Risks Using a Deliberative Risk Ranking Methodology” by Russell Lundberg

http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD319.html

Their Deliberative Method for ranking threats incorporates recommendations from the empirical literature on risk perceptions into both the description of the risks and interviewing opinions from individuals and groups. This effort using the participation of hundreds of citizens, risk managers, and policymakers in the context of managing risks to health, safety, and the environment appears valid. But they have not yet been used by anyone in addressing the challenges of managing natural disaster or intentional attacks.  Their first step is identifying a comprehensive list of attributes to cover when describing disaster or attack.  And, second, develop detailed summaries of existing knowledge of how these threats compare to a wide range of other national or individual security threats.  

Perhaps we can use their findings as a reference point for prioritizing actions for reducing threats globally.

The list of security threats below and attitudes that influence those concerns are vital to finding effective and sustainable solutions. Ignorance of these threats may be bliss. But it’s not good for preventing them or preparing for those we cannot prevent. 

Threats, real or imagined, can have both intended and unintended consequences:  Lethal, Economic, psychological, environmental, societal, political, governmental….  And the duration of consequence can have non-consequential effects impacting only on human perceptions.  Threats can also be connected [see E below].  More concerning is the reality that one threat inevitably leads to others with a domino or cascading impact. 

Sources of threats listed below:  (incomplete list and their order of importance not yet prioritized.  And, not yet included are the connections between threats and/or a cascade of consequences from any single threat to the escalation of other threats.) 

A.  US Commission on National Security in the 21st Century: http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/nssg/

B. Science Illustrated.  “The Last Day… doomsday will come eventually.”

C. Global Trends 2030: 1996, 2010. 

D. “2013 Global Risks Report” 

E.  “The Dark side of globalization.” James Stavridis (NATO Supreme Allied commander) Washington Post, 6-2-13

F.  IOM report 1992, CDC report 1994, CISET Report 1995, NAS Report 1997, NIC Report 2000, FP  article 2013. 

G.  Gilmore Commission 2003.

H.  Global Trends 2015. Dec. 2000 CIA report on biosecurity issues.

I.   Commission on Prevention of WMD and Terrorism 2008

J.  British Medical Association article on “genetic weapons” 2004. 

K.  Project Horizon 2006 (not yet summarized).

 

INTENTIONAL:  Planned and executed by humans

Terrorism: A. D. F. G. H. I. Cw.

BIoterrorism  A. F. G. H. I. Cw

Genetically targeted bioweapons. I. J. F. J. Cw.

US Government gridlock. Cw

US Civil war.  (Dana Milbank, WPost 12-19-21)

WMD proliferation: A. D. E. I. cw

International Crime: A. B. Cw

Cyber EMP.  Cw.

Nuclear EMP.  cw.

Nuclear detonation in a city:

Attack on a Nuclear Facility: 

Dirty Bomb: 

Backlash against globalization. D. cw

Massive incidence of data fraud/theft. D.

Cyberattacks. D. cw

Widespread illicit trade.. D. E.

Entrenched organized crime. D. E.

NATURAL:  Inevitable

Pandemics: A. B. D. Cw.

Solar EMP.

Super-volcano (Yellowstone National Park) B.

Hyper-nova Gamma rays torch earth’s ozone layer. B.

Asteroid strike. B. cw. 

Cataclysmic comet slams in to planet. B.

Earth crashes into Mars in 3 billion years B.

Sun’s death will boil earth in about 5 billion years. B,

Unprecedented geophysical destruction. D.

ACCIDENTAL: 

Nano-robots run amok. B. D.

Deadly synthetic Diseases escape the lab B. Cw.

Unforeseen consequences of new life science technologies. D. cw

Failure of climate change adaptation. D.

Nuclear military accident 

Nuclear civilian accident

Space debris renders satellite communications useless.  D.

Euro zone breakup triggering huge financial crisis that spreads to US. C.

Hard landing of emerging economy. D

Unforeseen negative consequences of regulation (gun control? WMD counter proliferation?). D.

Unilateral resource nationalization. D.

Unmanageable inflation or deflation. D.

Failure of diplomatic conflict resolution. D.

Massive digital misinformation. D.

Ineffective illicit drug policies. D.

Failure of intellectual property regime. D.

Mismanaged urbanization. D.

Extreme volatility in energy and agricultural prices. D.

Land and waterway use mismanagement. D.

Critical Systems failure. D.

Drone proliferation cw

Outsourcing security to private firms and corporations. cw

INDIFFERENCE:  Preventable but largely ignored by public and/or policy makers.

Education: A.

Disruptive technologies (approximately 15) potential impacts. C.

Growing science illiteracy, ignorance, and civic apathy. cw

Failed States: A. D.

Biggest national security threat is “the danger of receding American influence on the world stage” C

Economic Instability: A. 

Major systematic financial failure. D

Antibiotic resistant bacteria.. D.

Pessimistic on the US economic outlook.  C. 

Unforeseen consequences of climate change mitigation. D.

Rising greenhouse gas emissions. D.

Persistent extreme weather. D.

US Government dependence on Electricity, Tax revenue, Cyber technology, 

Smart Robots overtake us. B.

Nuclear war kills billions: Human Indifference to nuclear disarmament.  B.  

Governance growing gap between the pace of economic and political change. C, cw

Cyber, bio and other new weapons empowering individuals and small groups. C. 

Mismanagement of population aging. D.

Chronic labor market imbalances. D..

Rising religious fanaticism. D

Species overexploitation/mass extinction. D.

Global governance failure. D.

Militarization of space. D.

Mineral resource supply vulnerability. D.

Irremediable pollution. D.

Unmanaged migration. D.

Severe income disparity. D.

Rising rates of chronic diseases.. D.

Pervasive entrenched corruption. D.

Water supply crisis. D.

Chronic fiscal imbalances. D.

Vulnerability to geomagnetic storms.  D. 

Prolonged infrastructure neglect. D.

Recurring liquidity crisis. D.

Food shortage crisis. D.

Small arms proliferation. cw

Militarization of police. cw

Military Industrial, congressional, think tank complex bankrupting America. cw

Merging of global trafficking routes and WMD proliferation. E. cw

 

Context!  “Context is King!” cw

He who has the best context usually prevails in a debate and life.  Not he who has the most facts.  Unfortunately, short term priorities trump long term needs.  This is basically the difference between mainstream economics and policies needed to avert disaster. Economic growth that fails to broadly and rapidly raise income levels and environmental sustainability is suicidal. Unfortunately the existing election cycle in any nation where the majority are in comfort — and funcationally ignorant of the threats we face will not reflect long term needs. 

“If I had only an hour to save the world, I would spend 50 minutes defining the problem, and 10 minutes executing the solution.” Albert Einstein

If I had only 8 hours to chop down a tree, I would spend the first 6 hrs sharpening my ax”.  Abraham Lincoln. 

Gen. Martin Dempsey, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, 

"American Grand Strategy in an Age of Austerity" 

From Duke University Page Auditorium, Durham, NC 

Rune-Warrior Ralph Blum, and striving to “Live the Ordinary Life in an Extraordinary Way,”

Current conditions of poverty, anxiety, environmental degradation, injustice, disease, human rights violations, weapons proliferation, crime, and general unhappiness in the midst of unprecedented wealth should not be regarded as coincidence.  Urgent attention is needed at this juncture in human history.   We have entered a new world era some scientists have termed the Anthropocene. This newly invented term  combines two Greek roots: “anthropo,” for human; and “cene,” for new, to describe our new geological epoch.  This the new epoch has humanity, with its technological prowess and 7 billion members being the major driver of changes of the Earth’s physical systems, including the climate, the carbon cycle, the water cycle, the nitrogen cycle, and biodiversity inadvertently reshaping our societies.

If we continue along this current economic trajectory we risk undermining the Earth’s life support systems – food supplies, clean water, and stable climate - and even social systems of peace and security, all necessary for human health, wealth and in some places survival itself. Within years or decades, living conditions may become dire in some regions of the world. The deterioration of life support systems in the arid Horn of Africa and parts of Central Asia are already occurring.

But, if we act wisely, natural systems can be protected while raising quality of life around the world for everyone.  This can be done by adopting technologies, lifestyles and institutions that improve health, freedom, prosperity and happiness (or life satisfaction) while reducing human damage to the environment and vast human suffering. 

The phrase “Sustainable Development” is intended to descirbe this desired condition of human well-being, social justice, and environmental sustainability.  

Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness’ should become the global mantra for world peace, justice and prosperity.  Sustainable development isn’t just a good idea. It is essential to our progress and survival.

*****

Global Risks 2013

World Economic Forum in collaboration with: Marsh & McLennan Companies - National University of Singapore - Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford -Swiss Reinsurance Company

Wharton Center for Risk Management, University of Pennsylvania - Zurich Insurance Group

Eighth Edition - An Initiative of the Risk Response Network - 2013 World Economic Forum

Available online at: http://bit.ly/WduZr5

“…..The Global Risks Report 2013 analyses 50 global risks in terms of impact, likelihood and interconnections, based on a survey of over 1000 experts from industry, government and academia.

This year’s findings show that the world is more at risk as persistent economic weakness saps our ability to tackle environmental challenges. 

The report highlights wealth gaps (severe income disparity) followed by unsustainable government debt (chronic fiscal imbalances) as the top two most prevalent global risks. Following a year scarred by extreme weather, from Hurricane Sandy to flooding in China, respondents rated rising greenhouse gas emissions as the third most likely global risk overall. 

The findings of the survey fed into an analysis of three major risk cases: 

- Testing Economic and Environmental Resilience, 

- Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World and 

- The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health. 

The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health

Health is a critical system that is constantly being challenged, be it by emerging pandemics or chronic illnesses. Scientific discoveries and emerging technologies allow us to face such challenges, but the medical successes of the past century may also be creating a false sense of security. 

Arguably, one of the most effective and common means to protect human life – the use of antibacterial and antimicrobial compounds (antibiotics) – may no longer be readily available in the near future. 

Every dose of antibiotics creates selective evolutionary pressures, as some bacteria survive to pass on the genetic mutations that enabled them to do so. Until now, new antibiotics have been developed to replace older, increasingly ineffective ones. However, human innovation may no longer be outpacing bacterial mutation. None of the new drugs currently in the development pipeline may be effective against certain new mutations of killer bacteria that could turn into a pandemic. 

Are there ways to stimulate the development of new antibiotics as well as align incentives to prevent their overuse, or are we in danger of returning to a pre-antibiotic era in which a scratch could be potentially fatal?

In a special report on national resilience, the groundwork is laid for a new country resilience rating, which would allow leaders to benchmark their progress. The report also highlights “X Factors” – emerging concerns which warrant more research, including the rogue deployment of geoengineering and brain-altering technologies…..”

Content 

Section 1 - Preface – Foreword - Executive Summary - Introduction

Section 2

Testing Economic and Environmental Resilience

Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World

The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health

Section 3 - Special Report: Building National Resilience to Global Risks

Section 4 - Survey Findings

The Global Risks 2013 Data Explorer

Section 5   X Factors - Conclusion

Section 6  Appendix 

"It is natural for man to indulge in the illusions of hope. We are apt to shut our eyes against a painful truth, and listen to the song of that siren till she transforms us into beasts ... For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst, and to provide for it." Patrick Henry 1736-1799 American attorney, orator, revolutionary.

 

Democracy is not the answer. Protecting human rights is.

 Why all this hype about democracy?  It is a profoundly flawed human invention.  There is still no agreed-upon definition.  Our ‘democratic’ republic was founded by creating a constitution with a majority vote that ignored the very ‘self-evident’ truth that brought those delegates together.   A great compromise that resulted in a civil war that killed more Americans than all the wars we’ve fought in since then combined.  Another majority vote landed us a Vietnam quagmire that should have never been started.  Then a four decades later a 20-year war in Afghanistan that could never be won.  And two years into that quagmire started a war in Iraq that should have never happened but lasted 8 years.

And now, we appear to be on the verge of another civil war.  Americans are increasingly angry, divided, and even lethally hostile.   No wonder.  Democratic elections over the last 250 years have not achieved a single goal stated in the Constitution’s preamble.   Our Union is less perfect each day.  Rioting is over a lack of justice was predictable.  Gun sales and threats of violence against teachers, school boards, election officials, and even political leaders are growing.   Most voters in both parties are increasingly worried about the future.  They can’t even agree on basic science or what our children should be taught in school regarding history our checkered history.   Democracy depends on educated voters.  But few actually do what their body needs to be healthy or what nature needs to be sustainable beyond the next election.   

Even if the United Nations were a democracy, it could not stop a US war with China if it invades Taiwan or a war with Russia if Putin invades Ukraine.   

Dozens of historical quotes by wise souls going back thousands of years insist that democracy doesn’t work.  A ‘Democracy Summit’ won’t change that.  One thing could.  But that would take all the world’s governments agreeing to make the protection of human rights and nature their highest priority.  Thomas Paine’s pamphlet “Common Sense” stated that the only legitimate reason for any government was protecting human freedom and security.   Instead.  Nearly every national government in the world protects its sovereignty.   And US elected officials swear to protect the Constitution falsely believing it can protect both our freedoms and our security.  That’s not possible with Covid variants, extreme weather conditions, cyber hacks, economic instability, and supply chain disruptions that cannot be stopped at our nation's borders.  National sovereignty is yet another profoundly flawed human invention that offers us no sustainable security.   And these inevitable threats will continue to challenge our desire for freedom.  Freedom cannot be maintained without responsibility of our actions individually and globally.    

Yesterday was the anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.  It was created after the horrific global misery of a world war, a genocide, and the invention of a new weapon that could vaporize 100,000 people in a flash.   Its intention was to address the root causes of war. But our democracy has chosen to ignore it.    And now we are ignoring the next best thing that all nations have agreed on.  Achieving the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals by the year 2030.  This could be done with the trillions of dollars locked in offshore accounts by kleptocrats, oligarchs, crime cartels, violent extremists groups, and filthy rich capitalists avoiding taxes.  Offshore accounts hiding corruption allowed by democracies (including ours).  Corruption that has helped fuel distrust in democratic rule.

The primary reason democracies are losing favor in the world isn’t because non-democratic nations use social media to spreading misinformation.  It’s because democratic nations have failed in protecting their own citizens from the lethal and accelerating global forces of climate change, evolving pathogens, refugee flows, and unregulated global capitalism.  Populism fueled by legitimate fears favor the support of strong-handed leaders.   Democracies are slower to respond to these troubling changes.  And the US Constitution was designed to work slow...if it works at all.  And it has been our love of democracy that makes it virtually impossible to change.

The alternative is ‘the rule of law”.  Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy once offered its best working definition.  During a C-Span interview with an international audience in the late 1990s he was asked ‘What makes the “rule of law” most effective?’   He said he believed ‘it required “three essential” elements to work best’.  Today he might say sustainably.

“First” the “laws need to be made and enforced by a democratic process”.  People want to participate in the rules they live under.  But, he warned that this was “not enough!”  

“Second”, he said “the laws” must be “applied equally to everyone”.  The principle of justice is universal (as the Golden Rule).   But even that wouldn’t be enough if everyone was mistreated equally.  

Last, he said, “the laws must be protective of a certain set of inalienable rights”.  Rights that we have just because we’re born.  Not because of any characteristics we are born with (skin color, sex…) or into (ethnic group, economic group, nationality, religion…).

Humanities' simple choice isn’t between democracy or dictatorship.  It’s between the rule of law or the law of the jungle.  A jungle we now call national sovereignty where the law of force continues to reign supreme. 

Omicron: Adapt or perish.

Omicron.   It sounds like a Hasbro Transformer toy.   And transform is what pathogens do.  In at least five earthly ways.  Change is a fundamental factor natural to all life forms.  Those that don’t change perish.  It’s unfortunate that people’s minds and our governments are so resistant to change.  Or at least appropriately adapting to this permanent and persistent threat of microbial evolution. 

An inevitable evolution that is accelerated by multiple natural and human-created factors.

Remember these.

1.       Natural errors in the reproduction of both DNA and RNA.

2.       Microbial sex (they don’t mate but they can share genetic segments).

3.       Intentional changes engineered by human experimentation.

4.       Errors made during that engineering.

5.       Unintentional changes from human-made chemicals induced into their environment.

6.       Maybe God’s intentional genetic manipulations that are intended to teach humans to take care of one another.

It’s been said that war is God’s way of teaching Americans geography.  We obviously suck remembering history.

Covid19 is trying to teach us science.  Most learned.  Others died.

Now Omicron is teaching us Latin.  And one of the fundamentals of evolution.  Things change.  Microbes change rapidly.   Those infected either adapt or perish.   

This virus now plaguing us (and many others) will continue to crank out variants until our Sun expands and sterilizes all life on earth.  What we really need is a military-minded approach to addressing this evolving threat. 

We need to quickly get over this conservative habit of resisting change.  We must permanently adopt a strategy of adapting ourselves and our lives instead of believing our old ways will suffice.   And this applies to any number of things threatening our freedoms and security.  Serious threats that are accelerating with each new technology.  We had hoped new technologies would bring us together into a more perfect union.  But new technologies have only made things worse.  From Facebook to vaccines, to electric cars.  They are distracting or entertaining us to the point we refuse to consider the existential threats to our civilization.   

We have all pledged ‘liberty and justice for all’ and now that united we survive... divided we are all going down.   Yet we fret over Critic Race Theory, abortion, or the meaning of the 2^nd Amendment.

The US military offers a comprehensive approach to addressing any threat.  An approach that is extremely useful if we are serious about addressing serious threats.  It consists of four fundamentals.  1) Early detection.  2) Rapid response.  3) Research and development. And 4) prevention. 

It’s near impossible however for the military to use the law of force to prevent any problem. Deterrence only goes so far in the age of suicide bombers.  Prevention meanwhile, appears to be an un-American word, and militaries aren’t trained for such wise actions, except in applying it to protecting the health of their own soldiers. And that is the greatest challenge during any war.  But preventing wars is impossible when the law of force is the military's primary mission.  Preempting war is the best they can manage.  But that’s only a delay and usually just prolongs the inevitable return to other sides relying on force.

Biven the exponential growth of the power of technology, relying on force will inevitably lead to a war that ends us.  The Great War (‘the war to end all wars’) turned out to be the ‘peace’ that ended all peace.

Now with biological and cyber weapons in the mix biosecurity and cybersecurity are both oxymorons.

The human capacity to engineer bioweapons to kill or disable a particular genetic group is possible.  I would say inevitable.  Humanity's best chance is focusing on early detection which seems like a no-brainer.  As well as rapid response. 

Unfortunately,  both of these require a massive amount of science and funding.  Two things a significant number of policymakers reject.   And our government’s only capacity for a rapid response usually ends up being the wrong response (See 2003 invasion of Iraq).  

It is worth considering a fundamental aspect of all life on this amazing planet.  The three most complex and complicated systems in the known universe are 1) the environment, 2) our immune system, and 3) the human brain.  Understanding that each of these is fundamentally connected to our species capacity to survive -- and thrive.  And ultimately the sustainability of our species for generations to come.

Here's where understanding and acting on principles are vital.  And there are three basic principle types.

1.        Fundamental principles (the Laws of Nature and Nature’s God).

2.        Alternative Principles (those good ideas our minds invent to protect what we think is important and may have initially worked in the past.  Concepts like “peace through strength”.  Or ‘Peace through disarmament’.  Or, “market forces will take care of it’ or “love is all we need’. 

3.       Insane principles:  Principles we continue to defend regardless of how many times they have failed us.   National Sovereignty.   Democracy.  Prayer.  Hope.  Technology. 

The things that we rely on for our daily lives, health, work, transportation, banking, energy...come from people who engineered these things using the Laws of Nature.    To the degree that groups of people practice the Laws of Nature’s God is the degree, they can survive and thrive together.

Obviously, to the degree that our governments, religions, and economic models remain dysfunctional -- is the degree to which these organizing institutions relied on the other two principle types.

Humanity's greatest threat is not pathogens, climate change, war, or asteroids.  It remains our persistent reliance on trusting the second two sets of principles.  Principles that repeatedly fail us.     

What is so hard about understanding and following the golden rule.  And understanding that nature is our ultimate infrastructure we depend on for every aspect of our freedom and security.  Yet we think it is something outside of ourselves.  Something there for our exploitation.    

If our species or civilization doesn’t make it.  Our failure of distinguishing between these principles and failing to act responsibly with them will be the reason. 

If “We hold these truths to be self-evident”.   Why do we swear to protect the Constitution...instead of the truth that we are all created with inalienable rights...to life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness...which requires virtuous, responsible, and healthy people?   Abiding by fundamental principles.

We need to adopt the fundamental principles handed up to us from the Declaration of Intendance.  Those self ’evident truths, prefaced by “the Laws of Nature and Nature’s God”.   It is a transformation we must make before wars, pathogens, or resistance to change ends us.