"Human behavior is the greatest threat to human existence" Dr. Monty G. Marshall. The Center for Systemic Peace
"It is not famine, not earthquakes, not microbes, not cancer but man himself who is man's greatest danger to man, for the simple reason that there is no adequate protection against psychic epidemics, which are infinitely more devastating than the worst of natural catastrophes" - Carl Jung
The sides involved in a psychic epidemic may exhibit some or all of the following characteristics:
Polarized or split between seemingly irreconcilable differences.
Emotional judgments and distorted reasoning.
Very selective and one-sided presentation of facts (if presented at all).
Focused intensely on particular individuals.
Expressed in extremes, associating good with one person/group and evil with another.
Having witnessed the destruction and horror of World War II, Jung had much to say about what he termed “psychic epidemics.” Several times throughout The Collected Works, he stressed that such “mass psychoses” are the main threat facing humanity today. “The gods have become disease,” Jung famously wrote.
https://intelligence.weforum.org/topics/a1Gb0000000pTDXEA2?tab=publications
In military terms a “threat” requires both capability and intent.
"We need more understanding of human nature, because the only real danger that exists is man himself. He is the great danger. And we are pitifully unaware of it. We know nothing of man ... far too little. His psyche should be studied -- because we are the origin of all coming evil." - C.G. Jung
National Security must be Rational Security:
David Attenborough urges world leaders to confront climate catastrophe (nbcnews.com)
"The life of the nation is secure only while the nation is honest, truthful, and virtuous." -- Frederick Douglass [Frederick Baily] (1818-1895), escaped slave, Abolitionist, author, editor of the North Star and later the New National Era
“Whether it is to be Utopia or Oblivion will be a touch-and-go relay race right up the final moment….Humanity is in ‘Final exam’ as to whether or not it qualifies for continuance in Universe” Buckminster Fuller.
“The world is a dangerous place, Not because the people who are evil, but because of the people who don’t do anything about it.” Albert Einstein.
The things that will destroy us are: politics without principle; pleasure without conscience; wealth without work; knowledge without character; business without morality; science without humanity; and worship without sacrifice. – Mahatma Gandhi
"The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life." - Theodore Roosevelt (1858-1919) 26th president of the U.S.
"There will be no Homeland Security until we realize that the entire planet is our homeland. Every sentient being in the world must feel secure." - John Perkins
Connect the dots. See the web. Justice for all! Or prepare for the consequences. We live in an era of increasing interconnected and interdependent problems and an accelerating list of existential threats. Yet we appear to be in full denial regarding the increasing WMD capacity for people, groups or nations to commit mass murder or genocide or respond to pathogens that do not recognize borders, political parties, or nationalities.
Grasping this reality it is easy to see why Martin Luther King Jr. said ‘we will either learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools’. cw
Defining National security threats: Harold Brown, U.S. Secretary of Defense from 1977 to 1981 in the Carter administration, enlarged the definition of national security by including elements such as economic and environmental security:
"National security then is the ability to preserve the nation's physical integrity and territory; to maintain its economic relations with the rest of the world on reasonable terms; to preserve its nature, institution, and governance from disruption from outside; and to control its borders."
Harvard University history professor Charles Maier's definition of 1990, national security is defined through the lens of national power:[7]
"National security... is best described as a capacity to control those domestic and foreign conditions that the public opinion of a given community believes necessary to enjoy its own self-determination or autonomy, prosperity and wellbeing."
The US military uses four basic principles in dealing with threats. First is early detection. Second is rapid response. Third is Research and development to provide the right tools for response. And last, prevention! Public health professionals use the same basic strategy but with far fewer resources.
Most major threats we face today have NO workable solution within the context of national sovereignty, an undemocratic UN, and unenforceable international law. Terrorism, Syria, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, climate change, pandemics, China’s or Russia’s territorial aggression, Israel/Palestine, or other Middle East conflicts. A U.S. President is forced to choose between two basic options. Do nothing and watch things get worse. Or do something and potentially make it worse. There is however, a fundamental choice to be made that is rarely talked about in the media or on Capital Hill. We can either continue down the current path where 'might makes right’ - the law of force''which leads to an accelerating devolution into chaos, Armageddon, AI taking over -- or, attempt a higher path in our planetary evolution in the direction of 'the rule of law" or religious salvation. Given the track record of the world religions...I'm committed to the former.
Wood Allen once said. "humanity stands at a crossroad. One road leads to utter hopelessness and despair. The other-- to complete annihilation." He hoped we had "the wisdom to choose the right path". It appears we lack it. It is possible that AI will gain wisdom first. It is possible, but not likely, that it will decide to keep humanity around with some system of enforced accountability in obeying ‘the Laws of Nature and Nature’s God” We will still be free to do anything we want. But there will always be consequences.
Estimating the timing and severity of threats to the US and humanity from accidents, disasters, or deliberate attacks is difficult. Most people avoid thinking about these things for a variety of reasons. Threats can be listed and generally categorized. Relatively accurate predictive analysis is sometimes possible with some threats. Pandemics will happen. But with other threats predictions will be virtually impossible. Like a nuclear war. Many threat consequences can vary widely in geography, economics or lethal severity. And actual or assumed effects can be perceived differently given the low public awareness of most threats.
Given this reality of our ignorance of perceived threats and how this influences the choices we make regarding actions plans, investments, or things to avoid, there appears to be a vast need for a public awareness campaign IF the intent is to bring both citizens and policymakers up to speed.
Given our limited financial resources on the family, local, state, federal and global levels we must choose wisely when selecting responses to real or perceived threats. Some low-cost actions could have a significant effect in preventing some threats. Or, enabling a stronger (or more rapid) response to other threats. Some actions may actually increase the risk of threat. Thus we face a trade-off of freedom to choose which action to take - and the inevitable consequences of taking (or not taking) a specific action. We must understand the scope of threats to make the wisest choices.
One source to consider in threat assessment: RISK Assessments: RAND Corp. “Comparing Homeland Security Risks Using a Deliberative Risk Ranking Methodology” by Russell Lundberg
http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD319.html
Their Deliberative Method for ranking threats incorporates recommendations from the empirical literature on risk perceptions into both the description of the risks and interviewing opinions from individuals and groups. This effort using the participation of hundreds of citizens, risk managers, and policymakers in the context of managing risks to health, safety, and the environment appears valid. But they have not yet been used by anyone in addressing the challenges of managing natural disaster or intentional attacks. Their first step is identifying a comprehensive list of attributes to cover when describing disaster or attack. And, second, develop detailed summaries of existing knowledge of how these threats compare to a wide range of other national or individual security threats.
Perhaps we can use their findings as a reference point for prioritizing actions for reducing threats globally.
The list of security threats below and attitudes that influence those concerns are vital to finding effective and sustainable solutions. Ignorance of these threats may be bliss. But it’s not good for preventing them or preparing for those we cannot prevent.
Threats, real or imagined, can have both intended and unintended consequences: Lethal, Economic, psychological, environmental, societal, political, governmental…. And the duration of consequence can have non-consequential effects impacting only on human perceptions. Threats can also be connected [see E below]. More concerning is the reality that one threat inevitably leads to others with a domino or cascading impact.
Sources of threats listed below: (incomplete list and their order of importance not yet prioritized. And, not yet included are the connections between threats and/or a cascade of consequences from any single threat to the escalation of other threats.)
A. US Commission on National Security in the 21st Century: http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/nssg/
B. Science Illustrated. “The Last Day… doomsday will come eventually.”
C. Global Trends 2030: 1996, 2010.
D. “2013 Global Risks Report”
E. “The Dark side of globalization.” James Stavridis (NATO Supreme Allied commander) Washington Post, 6-2-13
F. IOM report 1992, CDC report 1994, CISET Report 1995, NAS Report 1997, NIC Report 2000, FP article 2013.
G. Gilmore Commission 2003.
H. Global Trends 2015. Dec. 2000 CIA report on biosecurity issues.
I. Commission on Prevention of WMD and Terrorism 2008
J. British Medical Association article on “genetic weapons” 2004.
K. Project Horizon 2006 (not yet summarized).
INTENTIONAL: Planned and executed by humans
Terrorism: A. D. F. G. H. I. Cw.
BIoterrorism A. F. G. H. I. Cw
Genetically targeted bioweapons. I. J. F. J. Cw.
US Government gridlock. Cw
US Civil war. (Dana Milbank, WPost 12-19-21)
WMD proliferation: A. D. E. I. cw
International Crime: A. B. Cw
Cyber EMP. Cw.
Nuclear EMP. cw.
Nuclear detonation in a city:
Attack on a Nuclear Facility:
Dirty Bomb:
Backlash against globalization. D. cw
Massive incidence of data fraud/theft. D.
Cyberattacks. D. cw
Widespread illicit trade.. D. E.
Entrenched organized crime. D. E.
NATURAL: Inevitable
Pandemics: A. B. D. Cw.
Solar EMP.
Super-volcano (Yellowstone National Park) B.
Hyper-nova Gamma rays torch earth’s ozone layer. B.
Asteroid strike. B. cw.
Cataclysmic comet slams in to planet. B.
Earth crashes into Mars in 3 billion years B.
Sun’s death will boil earth in about 5 billion years. B,
Unprecedented geophysical destruction. D.
ACCIDENTAL:
Nano-robots run amok. B. D.
Deadly synthetic Diseases escape the lab B. Cw.
Unforeseen consequences of new life science technologies. D. cw
Failure of climate change adaptation. D.
Nuclear military accident
Nuclear civilian accident
Space debris renders satellite communications useless. D.
Euro zone breakup triggering huge financial crisis that spreads to US. C.
Hard landing of emerging economy. D
Unforeseen negative consequences of regulation (gun control? WMD counter proliferation?). D.
Unilateral resource nationalization. D.
Unmanageable inflation or deflation. D.
Failure of diplomatic conflict resolution. D.
Massive digital misinformation. D.
Ineffective illicit drug policies. D.
Failure of intellectual property regime. D.
Mismanaged urbanization. D.
Extreme volatility in energy and agricultural prices. D.
Land and waterway use mismanagement. D.
Critical Systems failure. D.
Drone proliferation cw
Outsourcing security to private firms and corporations. cw
INDIFFERENCE: Preventable but largely ignored by public and/or policy makers.
Education: A.
Disruptive technologies (approximately 15) potential impacts. C.
Growing science illiteracy, ignorance, and civic apathy. cw
Failed States: A. D.
Biggest national security threat is “the danger of receding American influence on the world stage” C
Economic Instability: A.
Major systematic financial failure. D
Antibiotic resistant bacteria.. D.
Pessimistic on the US economic outlook. C.
Unforeseen consequences of climate change mitigation. D.
Rising greenhouse gas emissions. D.
Persistent extreme weather. D.
US Government dependence on Electricity, Tax revenue, Cyber technology,
Smart Robots overtake us. B.
Nuclear war kills billions: Human Indifference to nuclear disarmament. B.
Governance growing gap between the pace of economic and political change. C, cw
Cyber, bio and other new weapons empowering individuals and small groups. C.
Mismanagement of population aging. D.
Chronic labor market imbalances. D..
Rising religious fanaticism. D
Species overexploitation/mass extinction. D.
Global governance failure. D.
Militarization of space. D.
Mineral resource supply vulnerability. D.
Irremediable pollution. D.
Unmanaged migration. D.
Severe income disparity. D.
Rising rates of chronic diseases.. D.
Pervasive entrenched corruption. D.
Water supply crisis. D.
Chronic fiscal imbalances. D.
Vulnerability to geomagnetic storms. D.
Prolonged infrastructure neglect. D.
Recurring liquidity crisis. D.
Food shortage crisis. D.
Small arms proliferation. cw
Militarization of police. cw
Military Industrial, congressional, think tank complex bankrupting America. cw
Merging of global trafficking routes and WMD proliferation. E. cw
Context! “Context is King!” cw
He who has the best context usually prevails in a debate and life. Not he who has the most facts. Unfortunately, short term priorities trump long term needs. This is basically the difference between mainstream economics and policies needed to avert disaster. Economic growth that fails to broadly and rapidly raise income levels and environmental sustainability is suicidal. Unfortunately the existing election cycle in any nation where the majority are in comfort — and funcationally ignorant of the threats we face will not reflect long term needs.
“If I had only an hour to save the world, I would spend 50 minutes defining the problem, and 10 minutes executing the solution.” Albert Einstein
If I had only 8 hours to chop down a tree, I would spend the first 6 hrs sharpening my ax”. Abraham Lincoln.
Gen. Martin Dempsey, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman,
"American Grand Strategy in an Age of Austerity"
From Duke University Page Auditorium, Durham, NC
Rune-Warrior Ralph Blum, and striving to “Live the Ordinary Life in an Extraordinary Way,”
Current conditions of poverty, anxiety, environmental degradation, injustice, disease, human rights violations, weapons proliferation, crime, and general unhappiness in the midst of unprecedented wealth should not be regarded as coincidence. Urgent attention is needed at this juncture in human history. We have entered a new world era some scientists have termed the Anthropocene. This newly invented term combines two Greek roots: “anthropo,” for human; and “cene,” for new, to describe our new geological epoch. This the new epoch has humanity, with its technological prowess and 7 billion members being the major driver of changes of the Earth’s physical systems, including the climate, the carbon cycle, the water cycle, the nitrogen cycle, and biodiversity inadvertently reshaping our societies.
If we continue along this current economic trajectory we risk undermining the Earth’s life support systems – food supplies, clean water, and stable climate - and even social systems of peace and security, all necessary for human health, wealth and in some places survival itself. Within years or decades, living conditions may become dire in some regions of the world. The deterioration of life support systems in the arid Horn of Africa and parts of Central Asia are already occurring.
But, if we act wisely, natural systems can be protected while raising quality of life around the world for everyone. This can be done by adopting technologies, lifestyles and institutions that improve health, freedom, prosperity and happiness (or life satisfaction) while reducing human damage to the environment and vast human suffering.
The phrase “Sustainable Development” is intended to descirbe this desired condition of human well-being, social justice, and environmental sustainability.
Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness’ should become the global mantra for world peace, justice and prosperity. Sustainable development isn’t just a good idea. It is essential to our progress and survival.
*****
Global Risks 2013
World Economic Forum in collaboration with: Marsh & McLennan Companies - National University of Singapore - Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford -Swiss Reinsurance Company
Wharton Center for Risk Management, University of Pennsylvania - Zurich Insurance Group
Eighth Edition - An Initiative of the Risk Response Network - 2013 World Economic Forum
Available online at: http://bit.ly/WduZr5
“…..The Global Risks Report 2013 analyses 50 global risks in terms of impact, likelihood and interconnections, based on a survey of over 1000 experts from industry, government and academia.
This year’s findings show that the world is more at risk as persistent economic weakness saps our ability to tackle environmental challenges.
The report highlights wealth gaps (severe income disparity) followed by unsustainable government debt (chronic fiscal imbalances) as the top two most prevalent global risks. Following a year scarred by extreme weather, from Hurricane Sandy to flooding in China, respondents rated rising greenhouse gas emissions as the third most likely global risk overall.
The findings of the survey fed into an analysis of three major risk cases:
- Testing Economic and Environmental Resilience,
- Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World and
- The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health.
The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health
Health is a critical system that is constantly being challenged, be it by emerging pandemics or chronic illnesses. Scientific discoveries and emerging technologies allow us to face such challenges, but the medical successes of the past century may also be creating a false sense of security.
Arguably, one of the most effective and common means to protect human life – the use of antibacterial and antimicrobial compounds (antibiotics) – may no longer be readily available in the near future.
Every dose of antibiotics creates selective evolutionary pressures, as some bacteria survive to pass on the genetic mutations that enabled them to do so. Until now, new antibiotics have been developed to replace older, increasingly ineffective ones. However, human innovation may no longer be outpacing bacterial mutation. None of the new drugs currently in the development pipeline may be effective against certain new mutations of killer bacteria that could turn into a pandemic.
Are there ways to stimulate the development of new antibiotics as well as align incentives to prevent their overuse, or are we in danger of returning to a pre-antibiotic era in which a scratch could be potentially fatal?
In a special report on national resilience, the groundwork is laid for a new country resilience rating, which would allow leaders to benchmark their progress. The report also highlights “X Factors” – emerging concerns which warrant more research, including the rogue deployment of geoengineering and brain-altering technologies…..”
Content
Section 1 - Preface – Foreword - Executive Summary - Introduction
Section 2
Testing Economic and Environmental Resilience
Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World
The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health
Section 3 - Special Report: Building National Resilience to Global Risks
Section 4 - Survey Findings
The Global Risks 2013 Data Explorer
Section 5 X Factors - Conclusion
Section 6 Appendix
"It is natural for man to indulge in the illusions of hope. We are apt to shut our eyes against a painful truth, and listen to the song of that siren till she transforms us into beasts ... For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst, and to provide for it." Patrick Henry 1736-1799 American attorney, orator, revolutionary.
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