Thursday, March 10, 2022

Ukraine dilemma "Analysis'? Use Science not Politics

 

RE:  AnalysisAn International Relations Theory Guide to the War in Ukraine: A consideration of which theories have been vindicated—and which have fallen flat.     By Stephen M. Walt, a columnist at Foreign Policy and the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

Dear Editor, 

For the most useful analysis of the political world’s dilemma with Ukraine and Russia, it would be useful to take an actual scientific or engineering approach.  An approach using words that have specific and relatively exact global meanings between all readers...unlike politics, economics, and religion.

First, this educated analysis (or white paper) uses the word “theory” where the word ‘hypothesis’ (educated guess) would be more appropriate.   Second, it would make a clear distinction between theory and law.  

Unfortunately, “international law” is technically only wishful thinking (not made by democratic process or enforceable without war, lethal sanctions, assassinations, or good intentions).  It would be wiser to look to the “Laws of Nature and Nature’s God” for making the most accurate predictions [see the first paragraph of Declaration of Independence]. 

Most people are clear about the “laws of nature’...and I’m hoping most will agree that the laws of “Nature’s God” fundamentally means the Gold Rule.  An unwritten law that is the foundation of every major religion.  Within this grounded context humanity is left with a simple political choice.  Do we live by the ‘rule of law’ or the ‘law of the jungle’?

Given the evolution of weapons technology and its accelerating global affordability, availably, anonymity, power, replicability, and speed of delivery - of multiple forms of WMD (bio, cyber, nano, robotics...and even conventional) we must choose very wisely and quickly - or prepare for the end of civilization as we know it.  

Fundamental to any solution is understanding and abiding by the fact that international law and politics are based on the inherently flawed construct of independence.  This is a human mind’s imaginary concept that exists nowhere in the known universe.   Thus, in reality, our Ukraine dilemma is actually a trilemma.  Most of humanity today wants to maximize their freedoms and security.  But we expect this within the unexamined and mostly unconscious context of independence.  Thus we face a trilemma, not a dilemma.  

Conclusion:  The only way to resolve a trilemma is to pick the two we desire most.  And pick very carefully.   A reading of Thomas Paine’s pamphlet Common Sense will provide a logical and legal solution to this trilemma.  In his political view, the only legitimate purpose of government is to protect human freedom and security. 

Given all people are interdependent on multiple factors... and the recent quote by the head of our nation’s newest federal agency CISA, the Cyber and Infrastructure Security Agency (two years old – the agency, not it's head), “everything is connected, everything is interdependent, and everything is vulnerable” - we must seriously consider her choice of words in a later sentence ...  ‘we need a global approach’.

This, in my opinion, is the only wise “realist perspective on international politics”.  Creating a new global governance system that puts the protection of human rights and the environment above the protection of national sovereignty (independent nations) will be our only earthly salvation.

As Woody Allen once said, “Humanity stands at a crossroad.  One road leads to utter hopelessness and despair.  The other, to complete annihilation.  I hope we have the wisdom to choose the right path.”

An Elon Musk’s reality? ’...burrow a tunnel under the crossroad or move to another planet.’

Another option already exists.  It was globally agreed upon at the United Nations in 2015.  It would mean funding the world’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals by the year 2030.  The world’s oligarchs could afford this and still keep their yachts.

Time is not on our side.  Neither is Putin. 

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