The GAO (perhaps the most trusted and respected US federal agency) appears to be far ahead of policymakers, average citizens, and advocacy groups regarding US national security threats and the “urgent” need to address some practical root causes. The 33 page report... “Trends Affecting Government and Society” can be downloaded here: https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-22-3sp.pdf
GAO highlights a dozen urgent trends D.C.
should prepare to confront: From domestic and global extremism to racial
and ethnic disparities, the watchdogs urges a proactive approach. By Joe Davidson (April 9, 2022 print
edition).
Gene L. Dodaro’s nearly 49 years with the
Government Accountability Office (GAO) gives him an eagle-eye view of a vexing,
long-standing problem with the federal sector.
“We've been too reactive to
major events,” Dodaro, whose title is comptroller general of the United States,
said in an interview. “Once we focus on something, we do a good job. But in
many cases, we focus too late.”
Now, GAO, the nonpartisan
congressional agency that is the government’s primary watchdog, is looking to
the future.
In a new report, “Trends
Affecting Government and Society,” it identifies a dozen areas of
greatest national concern where “GAO can better be prepared to
respond.” That includes, Dodaro said, preparing a federal workforce to meet
those challenges.
Certain themes link the
trends, demonstrating their interconnectedness. While “racial and ethnic
disparities” is its own section, that theme, along with socioeconomic status,
is cited in seven of the 12 categories. Mistrust in government, sometimes
fueled by misinformation and lies from high places, is found in three.
With colorful, engaging diagrams and layouts that provide more
energy than usual for generally dry federal documents, the agency presented
these trends, along with warnings and uncertainties:
·
National Security: Global and Domestic Threats: “The U.S.
is not sufficiently prepared for threats from events such as pandemics and
climate change, or threats from technologies … The war in Ukraine underscores
the potential for threats that challenge the international order and jeopardize
global security” … “On the domestic front … racial, ethnic, and ideologically
motivated domestic violent extremism poses the most lethal and persistent
terrorism-related threat to the homeland and must be treated as a national
priority.”
·
Fiscal Sustainability and Debt: “The
federal government faces numerous fiscal exposures not fully accounted for …
such as public health emergencies, global military conflicts, natural
disasters, and unexpected economic conditions,” and “key trust funds supporting
health care and Social Security programs will be depleted in 15 years or less.”
- Preparing for Catastrophic
Biological Incidents: “Progress to enhance
trust in government and science and overcome disparities in health care
may be uneven and challenging … The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates the
devastating effects of biological incidents, yet future incidents could be
even more catastrophic and disruptive.”
- Racial and Ethnic Disparities:
“According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 56 percent of the population is
projected to be a race other than White by 2060 … The effects of these
disparities are intertwined and far-reaching … By some estimates, racial
and ethnic disparities in the U.S. health care system amount to
approximately $93 billion in excess medical care costs due to poorer
health for racial and ethnic minorities … Addressing racial and ethnic
disparities will be a persistent challenge facing the country and its
policymakers.”
- Science, Technology, and the
Innovation Economy: “[T]here is a critical need
to modernize aspects of the U.S. intellectual property and technology
transfer systems … To maintain global leadership and competitiveness, the
U.S. must invest in and grow a strong, talented, and diverse STEM
workforce, and seek ways to ensure that the benefits of U.S. innovation
flow more broadly to the American people.”
- Racial and Ethnic Disparities:
“According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 56 percent of the population is
projected to be a race other than White by 2060 … The effects of these
disparities are intertwined and far-reaching … By some estimates, racial
and ethnic disparities in the U.S. health care system amount to
approximately $93 billion in excess medical care costs due to poorer
health for racial and ethnic minorities … Addressing racial and ethnic
disparities will be a persistent challenge facing the country and its
policymakers.”
- Science, Technology, and the
Innovation Economy: “[T]here is a critical need
to modernize aspects of the U.S. intellectual property and technology
transfer systems … To maintain global leadership and competitiveness, the
U.S. must invest in and grow a strong, talented, and diverse STEM
workforce, and seek ways to ensure that the benefits of U.S. innovation
flow more broadly to the American people.”
- Security Implications for an
Increasingly Digital World: “Extremist groups have
increasingly used social media to promote their ideologies … It is unclear
how law enforcement, legislatures, and the courts will balance preserving
civil liberties against using monitoring technology to identify and
counter illicit activities.”
- Changes to How and Where We
Work: “More than half the low-wage workers currently in
declining occupations will need to shift to occupations in higher wage
brackets that require different skills. Data indicate that automation and
the effects of the pandemic disproportionately affect certain groups,
including women, Black, Hispanic, low-income, and less educated workers …
By 2025, automation could displace 85 million jobs while creating 97
million new ones requiring different skills.”
- Future of Global Supply Chains: “Foreign
adversaries attempt to exploit global supply chains to obtain technologies
critical to national defense … The uncertainty caused by U.S.-Chinese
trade relations may raise products’ costs by forcing firms to maintain
higher inventories or seek alternative sourcing to avoid tariffs.”
·
Online Learning and Technology in Education: “Many students lack
reliable access to the internet to participate online, especially low-income
students and students of color … The extent of pandemic-related learning loss,
especially for students with already-unmet academic needs — often students of
color and low-income students — is not yet fully known … If these students do
not reengage with learning, it could adversely affect the skill levels of the
nation’s workforce and exacerbate disparities in access to educational and
employment opportunities.”
·
Evolving Health Technologies: “[I]nnovations merge biology and
technology to restore and enhance human abilities … advanced prosthetics that
may allow users to feel their prosthetic devices … 3D printed organs to
potentially reduce the incidence of transplant rejection … smartphone
applications that may identify mental health crises … virtual reality that may
be used to treat pain.”
·
Sustainable Development: “[R]equires thinking in a new way about
the links across sometimes competing social, environmental, and economic
priorities … Anxiety over misinformation has increased and trust in
institutions has declined, which can affect citizens’ confidence in climate and
other science information they receive.”
·
Evolving Space Environment: “The number of active satellites in orbit
has more than tripled over the past five years … Current law may create gaps in
oversight authority for non-traditional space activities, such as space-tourism
passenger safety. … Increased use of space has wide-ranging benefits but may
outpace U.S. policies and approaches.”
Dodaro provided two examples showing the importance of being
proactive in government. He said GAO identified cybersecurity as a high-risk
area across the entire government in 1997, the first time any issue was so
designated. It remains a high-risk problem.
“In 2015, we identified the need to develop an airline safety
plan for communicable diseases,” he said. “It wasn’t done.” Five years later,
the pandemic grounded most air travel.
Those examples and the new trends GAO identified provide lessons
for Uncle Sam — if he’s willing to learn.
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