Top 10 Emerging Technologies: most with very disruptive consequences

 

August 2024 World Economic Forum report

The Top 10 Emerging Technologies report is a vital source of strategic intelligence.  First published in 2011, it draws on insights from scientists, researchers and futurists to identify 10 technologies poised to significantly influence societies and economies. These emerging technologies are disruptive, attractive to investors, and researcher -  and expected to achieve considerable scale within five years. (This edition expands its analysis by involving over 300 experts from the Forum’s Global Future Councils and a global network of comprising over 2,000 chief editors worldwide from top institutions through Frontiers, a leading publisher of academic research)

https://www.weforum.org/publications/top-10-emerging-technologies-2024/digest/  

The Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2024 are:

1. AI for scientific discovery: While artificial intelligence (AI) has been used in research for many years, advances in deep learning, generative AI and foundation models are revolutionizing the scientific discovery process [and the capacity for weaponization of anything]. AI will enable researchers to make unprecedented connections and advancements in understanding diseases, proposing new materials, and enhancing knowledge of the human body and mind. [and attacking vulnerabilities in our DNA and human/environmental/economic infrastructure]

2. Privacy-enhancing technologies: Protecting personal privacy while providing new opportunities for global data sharing and collaboration, “synthetic data” is set to transform how information is handled with powerful applications in health-related research.  [Feds call for private sector’s help to prepare for quantum cyberattack   By Ryan Lovelace THE WASHINGTON TIMES  8-19-24:  Federal officials are bracing for a quantum computer cyberattack and asking private businesses to help prevent widespread devastation.

National security officials fear a super code-breaking cryptanalytically relevant quantum computer, or CRQC, will crack the encryptions of modern systems, exposing state secrets, financial transactions and other sensitive information. Researchers warn darkly of “Q-Day,” when a combination of quantum-classical computing power and artificial intelligence technologies threaten to undermine data security encryption methods.

The U.S. intelligence community is asking private businesses to help defend against such a powerful machine, and the Commerce Department is working to get new encryption tools into the hands of defenders. At the Department of Homeland Security, officials are developing guidance to address quantum technology risk.

Kathryn Knerler, the U.S. intelligence community’s chief information security officer, told a gathering of cybersecurity experts and hackers in Las Vegas this month that the quantum computing age is approaching. She said quantum computing will be a “very large gamechanger” and people must secure artificial intelligence systems before the world takes the quantum leap.

“We have, in my estimation, about five or six years to look at how we secure artificial intelligence,” Ms. Knerler said at the Black Hat USA 2024 conference. “So my challenge to all of you is please help us to secure artificial intelligence and come up with the guardrails.”

Forecasts for the emergence of a CRQC vary, but the U.S. government is scrambling to contain the fallout of an adversary winning the race to obtain such a powerful machine.

Also this month, the National Institute of Standards and Technology revealed encryption tools “designed to withstand the attack of a quantum computer.”

The laboratory, housed inside the Commerce Department, said it finalized encryption algorithms “built for the future.”

Mathematician Dustin Moody urged people to use the three new standards while the government bolsters its defenses against a quantum attack.

“We need to be prepared in case of an attack that defeats the algorithms in these three standards, and we will continue working on backup plans to keep our data safe,” Mr. Moody said in a statement. “But for most applications, these new standards are the main event.”

Officials at the Black Hat conference said the Department of Homeland Security is working under the assumption that a CRQC will emerge by 2030.

Homeland Security policy adviser Florence Lewine said her team does not know when the CRQC will emerge, but the “threat to the asymmetric encryption models already exists today.”

“We don’t want you to start thinking about this concern when you open the newspapers and hear that one of our adversaries has a CRQC,” Ms. Lewine told the cybersecurity pros and hackers. “We want you to start thinking about how you can prepare for this right now.”

Ms. Lewine said Homeland Security is developing guidelines for emerging quantum technology, particularly involving quantum sensing, quantum communication and quantum-enabled artificial intelligence.

Government officials’ frantic efforts to secure systems are driven by global competition to gain a quantum edge. Noah Ringler, the department’s AI adviser, said researchers worldwide make breakthroughs in quantum supercomputers’ processing power every six to eight months.

“With that, the general trend towards more computational efficiency, even though we are very, very far from optimized systems because we see the potential for intersection of these breakthroughs, we have to prepare for the potential risk landscape,” Mr. Ringler said at the Black Hat conference.

Asked whether Ms. Lewine and Mr. Ringler expect the CRQC to emerge abroad, they told The Washington Times they were not operating under that assumption.

The National Security Agency is concerned that a foreign adversary may develop a CRQC first, but NSA research director Gil Herrera said in March that no country has a quantum computer that he would consider useful — so far.

3. Reconfigurable intelligent surfaces: These innovative surfaces turn ordinary walls and surfaces into intelligent components for wireless communication while enhancing energy efficiency in wireless networks. They hold promise for numerous applications, from smart factories to vehicular networks.  [and loss of privacy and security]

4. High-altitude platform stations: Using aircraft, blimps and balloons, these systems can extend mobile network access to remote regions, helping bridge the digital divide for over 2.6 billion people worldwide. [as well as fast and likely anonymous delivery of bio/chem/conventional weapons]

5. Integrated sensing and communication: The advent of 6G networks facilitates simultaneous data collection (sensing) and transmission (communication). This enables environmental monitoring systems that help in smart agriculture, environmental conservation and urban planning. Integrated sensing and communication devices also promise to reduce energy and silicon consumption. [and loss of privacy and security]

6. Immersive technology for the built world: Combining computing power with virtual and augmented reality, these technologies promise rapid improvements in infrastructure and daily systems. This technology allows designers and construction professionals to check for correspondence between physical and digital models, ensuring accuracy and safety and advancing sustainability. [This would all be wonderful if it applied to government policies]

7. Elastocalorics: As global temperatures rise, the need for cooling solutions is set to soar. Offering higher efficiency and lower energy use, elastocalorics release and absorb heat under mechanical stress, presenting a sustainable alternative to current technologies.  [Going under ground and water will be a greater jobs creator and likely cause less CO2 emissions sustainably?]

8. Carbon-capturing microbes: Engineered organisms convert emissions into valuable products like biofuels, providing a promising approach to mitigating climate change. [And bioweapons targeting people and crops when saving trees and planting more native trees would have less chance of something going wrong with engineered organisms.]

9. Alternative livestock feeds: protein feeds for livestock sourced from single-cell proteins, algae and food waste could offer a sustainable solution for the agricultural industry. [Doable now if there were sufficient political will and human wisdom]

10. Genomics for transplants: The successful implantation of genetically engineered organs into a human marks a significant advancement in healthcare, offering hope to millions awaiting transplants. [True- but less incentive to take care of one’s health to begin with...while increasing the cost of so called ‘health care’ – actually medical care – thus increasing risk of debt failure or investing in preventing other root causes of both health, environmental, and political disruptions.