Saturday, January 26, 2019

Black Swans, Gray Rhinos, and Extinct DoDos



While our government was shut down Chinese Communist party leaders convened a four-day study session which ended with a senior official telling participants to get read to deal with major risks. 

  “We should strengthen our sense of responsibility [they can’t blame another political party because there is none] and purpose [make China number one in the world] and go out and fend off and defuse major risks.”  No mention of their border walls! 

At the start of their meeting their nation’s President said that China must be vigilant about “Black swans” – improbable events with severe consequences – and “Gray Rhinos,” or threats that have been ignored.  Again, no mention of border walls. 

He did warn against of “unpredictable international developments and a complicated and sensitive external environment” perhaps eluding to trade problems, but again no mention of walls.
China is facing an economic slowdown from weakened demand a home and an ongoing trade war that could diminish earnings but they and are willing to admit there are risks ahead.   The head of their Trade and Economic Cooperation [an un American word – look it up] Institute stated, “We are willing to have talks, but we don’t compromise on matters of principle.”

Anyone serious about predicting the future success of any trade or economic policy must first find out what principle(s) they are talking about.   Are the fundamental ‘self-evident’ principles that only a fool would argue with?  Or are they alternative principles invented by political leaders that may sound good on first glance but inevitably fail in the long run because they incorporate business principles instead of incorporating the “laws of Nature and Nature’s Law” into their development schemes.

A Heritage Foundation speaking yesterday at the 25th anniversary of their Economic Freedom Index said, “There are no problems that can’t be solved by free market solutions”.   He obviously wasn’t thinking about the opioid crisis, the immediate consequences of our loss of our antibiotic arsenal, the spread of Ebola, cyber threats, or a non-ending arms race between competing nations that will break the US economy before China’s. 

The problem with limiting one’s thinking regarding money and freedom is the habitually lethal disconnect from the consequences of irresponsible freedom.  Both biology and the laws of Nature’s God” require attention the needs of the poor.  While increased economic growth as a result of free trade has cut poverty related deaths by 2/3rds, more than 12,000 children still die each day from easily preventable malnutrition and infectious diseases, and the greater loss of life from poverty is the rise of communicable diseases as a result of cheap and abundant food largely unfit for healthy human consumption.   With no consideration of the Laws of Nature (biology, physics and chemistry…) all problems will not be solved by the free market or improved economies.

Some may call economics a science (Economic Science defined as: the application of mathematics and statistics to the study of economic and financial data. the branch of economics that studies the management of money and other assets. the branch of economics that studies the overall working of a national economy.] but the origin of the word “economics” is literally "rules of the house” we assume are for good management.  But few economists consider the fact that our home planet requires good management itself.  With many of its natural resources, systems, and structures profoundly undervalued in dollar terms.  Primarily because most political systems relies more on money than votes or the health of people.   Short sighted economists valuing profits more than people or the planet see limited value/profit in maintaining the healthy biofilm that we all thrive in and require for our health, future prosperity and ultimately our very survival.

At the end of the Chinese leader meeting their Party’s Trade and Economic expert said “We must boost risk prevention consciousness in preparation for the worst-case scenarios; Take the initiative and stay at the ready.”   Prevention appears to be an un-American word.  Our reactionary government is essentially dysfunctional and destined for economic collapse due to an ever increasing debt that will not stop without investments in prevention measures at home and in our foreign policy.

The People’s Daily, the official Communist Party newspaper urges its readers that “All of us should keep the warrior spirit and stay active and responsible.”  There’s that third ‘un-American’ word “responsible’.   American leaders always put our “freedom’ and our “security” at the top of their verbal agenda.  But they rarely stress that freedom can only be maintained by responsible words and behavior.  And then we wonder why both our cherished freedom and essential security is increasingly threatened in this entirely interdependent world.

2019 will be the “The Year of the Pig” an animal that finds it hard to control its instinctual over consumption that is more relevant to American life than life in China.   The year 2019 also refers to China’s upcoming lunar year.   American’s can only hope our 2019 Looney tune of irresponsibly shutting down our own government to waste money on a wall that will do virtually nothing to make American’s freer or more secure.  And then irresponsibly expect that Mexico pay for it.   

Unless our government can learn the value of words like “prevention” and “responsibility” our two-party system may go the way of the DoDo bird.


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